Christian Kirk (6-138, three touchdowns) , Mark Andrews (6-53, two touchdowns), and Marquise Brown (4-80, one touchdown) started out on the right foot for #TeamBuyLow last week, while Zach Pascal (2-26) went back to being Zach Pascal for #TeamSellHigh.
We wont get that lucky every week, but it does reinforce the value of making deals late in the year even if you feel good about your team.
As it did last week, this week's column begins with of a couple of pass catchers who belong to the same team.
Week 11 Buy Lows
WRs D.J. Chark and Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
Chark has only topped 53 receiving yards once since Week 5, while Westbrook (neck) hasn't caught a ball since Week 7. Though Westbrook is expected to make his return this week, they'll be playing with a quarterback in Nick Foles who hasn't taken a snap since Week 1.
And yet, I still want all of the Chark and Westbrook.
Chark (22%) and Westbrook (21%) rank first and second on the Jags in target share. Of the Jags' six upcoming matchups from now through Week 16, four currently rate 22nd or worse in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA — including two bottom-four opponents during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15-16 (Raiders, 29th Falcons, 31st).
Chark is 12th in the league in receiving yards per game, and Westbrook was top-15 in catches and targets in the five-week span before he went down
RB Sony Michel, Patriots
Michel rushed for 74 scoreless yards on 21 carries in Week 8, followed that up with another 30 scoreless yards on five touches in Week 9, and then the Patriots went on bye in Week 10 — meaning it's been nearly a month Michel owners got usable value from him.
But his median for carries in a game is still 17, and he's averaging 0.66 touchdowns per game, making him one of the highest-volume backs that you can get for a decent cost at this time of year.
In six games after the bye last season, Michel saw his touches increases by 2.0 per game (15.7 to 17.7); the Pats spent a first-round pick on him precisely so they'd have someone to ride at this time of year.
Week 11 Sell High
RB Damien Williams, Chiefs
Take out Williams' 91-yard touchdown run two weeks ago, and Williams would have been held to 38 total yards or fewer for the fifth straight game.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid got caught up in the noise heading into last week, scratching a healthy LeSean McCoy last week — who had already been in the doghouse, presumably for ball security issues — to ride to Williams for 25 touches, only to see him get a fumble returned for a touchdown in a game the Chiefs ultimately lost by three points.
Prior to two weeks ago, Williams hadn't cleared 65 scrimmage yards in a game, and his snaps count were 66%, 62%, 22%, 38%, 42%. Since Williams has finally come on after being drafted in the second-round of most fantasy drafts this offseason, we have confirmation bias in addition to recency bias working in favor of inflating his value.
Williams was a smash down the stretch last season in part because he was the bell cow by default after Kareem Hunt was let go and Spencer Ware went down. But with McCoy still on the roster, No. 3 back Darrel Williams mixing in more as the average RB3, and preseason rookie standout Darwin Thompson waiting in the wings, there are a lot more variables that could have a negative impact on Williams this time around.
Something as insignificant as McCoy (or Darrell, or Darwin) leading the team in carries in the first quarter this week could send Williams' value torpedoing back down to earth, so the time to sell is now.
