Could the Bengals win their first game of 2019? Where's the value in the 49ers-Ravens showdown?
Our experts reveal their favorite NFL bets for Week 13 featuring the following five games:
- Jets at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
- 49ers at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
- Eagles at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
- Buccaneers at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
- Titans at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
Now let's dig into their spread, over/under and prop bet picks!
Sean Koerner: Bengals +3 vs. Jets
Ryan Finley has been benched for Andy Dalton this week. I'm not sure we’ve heard the exact reason for this move yet, but it's clear that Finley is not quite ready for NFL action.
I would speculate that the Bengals are simply trying to avoid going 0-16. They could then go back to Finley after they win a game and continue to tank for the top draft pick in 2020. This matchup, along with a Week 16 date at home against the Dolphins, are likely their only chances to avoid going 0-16, so I expect them to be more motivated this week as a result.
The Jets were getting more than 80% of the action before the QB change. I've been harping on them as buy-low candidates for the past few weeks, but it appears the public has finally caught up.
It's also worth pointing out that the Bengals have a +2.2 edge in Pythagorean expected win differential with the Jets. As soon as Cincinnati announced Dalton would start, I fired a bet on the Bengals at +4. It's only dropped to +3, which is very odd considering Dalton is worth more than a point over Finley. I have the drop-off closer to 2.5 to 3 points, which is why I have the Bengals as +2.5 now.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Matthew Freedman: Ravens RB Mark Ingram Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Ravens lead the league with a 54.6% rush play rate, so they're committed to the running game, but that doesn't mean Ingram is locked in for lots of action this week.
After a hot start to the season with 82 rushing yards per game in the first month, Ingram has averaged just 64.3 rushing yards since week 5. And that number is skewed because of a couple of big performances: Only twice over the past two months has Ingram had more than 62.5 yards.
A touchdown-driven producer, Ingram simply isn't used as a high-volume back because the Ravens can distribute carries to quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
And the 49ers don't offer an easy matchup. For the year, they've allowed just 84.7 yards per game to opposing backfields. If Edwards and Hill combine for their customary 10-plus carries, Ingram might be challenged to get enough carries to hit the over.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Ingram projected for 49.8 rushing yards.
[In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
Stuckey: Eagles 1H -4; -10 at Dolphins
Time to go back to the well with a Dolphins fade.
Just like the past two weeks against the Bills and Browns, I’m fading Miami by taking Philly to cover the first half (anything under 5 is fine) and full game (anything 10 or better).
This Dolphins roster is historically bad and much worse than the team we saw earlier in the season.
Let's start on offense.
You have to give credit to Ryan Fitzpatrick for some of the numbers he's putting up considering the lack of talent he has around him. He's working with a horrific offensive line and a historically-bad running game that’s averaging a league-worst 3.1 yards per rush — and that includes time with Mark Walton and Kenyan Drake, who are both no longer with the team.
The receiving corps has also been depleted with injuries as it's pretty much now just DeVante Parker on the outside.
I don’t expect the Dolphins to do much on offense against an Eagles defense that has some of the best metrics over the best month, holding four straight opponents to fewer than 17 points for the first time in 10 years. The secondary has improved significantly since the return of Jalen Mills, and the defensive line should have its way with that poor offensive line.
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense has been severely limited, primarily due to a lack of deep threat with the absence of DeSean Jackson. However, they've also dealt with a number of impactful injuries on the outside and along the offensive line. But it looks like the offensive line should be at full strength and they'll be getting back a number of weapons on the outside (the latest reports on Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jefferey look promising).
Ultimately, this is a very poor Dolphins defense that shouldn’t get much push at the line of scrimmage and have lost a ton in the secondary. This is a get-right game for the Eagles who should take out some of their recent frustrations against a reeling Miami team. I’m laying the points.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
John Ewing: Buccaneers-Jaguars Under 47.5
The Buccaneers are third in scoring (28.4 points per game) and the over has gone 9-2 in their games this season, so we know why the public is cheering for points. But sharp bettors like the under due to the higher percentage of dollars than tickets on the under, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total down to 47.5 from its 49-point opener.
One reason the pros are expecting a low-scoring game is the weather. The forecast is calling for 17 mph winds during the game. Wind can impact the passing and kicking games, which creates a low scoring environment.
Historically, it's been profitable to bet the under in windy games. A $100 bettor following this strategy has returned a profit of $8,058 since 2003.
Windy conditions, sharp action, all signs point to value on the under in Sunday's matchup.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Mike Randle: Titans-Colts Under 43.5
The Colts offense will certainly struggle without their best running back (Marlon Mack), best wide receiver (T.Y. Hilton) and best tight end (Eric Ebron) against a Titans defense that's allowed fewer than 20 points per game this season.
Meanwhile, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has been very effective at limiting top quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes at home (one touchdown) and Deshaun Watson (two interceptions).
Tennessee’s offense has remained efficient despite Ryan Tannehill’s low pass volume. He'll be challenged by an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
The Colts' run defense has been strong all season, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards by opposing running backs. Even with Derrick Henry’s historic success against Indianapolis (more than 200 total yards over his past two games against the Colts), this should project as a low-scoring game with both teams at 6-5 and battling for a playoff spot.
I’m taking the under here in a tough AFC South showdown. The Colts offensive injuries and the uncertainty of increased Tannehill pass volume should suppress scoring and likely keep both teams under 21 points.
