Last week might have been the worst sports-betting week of my life. So I’m sure we’re both sure I have something of value to say, right?
Into Week 14 we go.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that using the Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Let’s take a look at a few trends for the early spreads and totals for this upcoming week.
For the rest of my Week 14 plays, check out the FTN Bet Tracker as well as my best bets article.
All lines are from the Action Network NFL Odds page.
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Ravens–Browns Under 43
The Browns are No. 6 in the league with their 46.8% rush rate; the Ravens, No. 8 at 45.9% (per the FTN NFL Pace & Run/Pass Report). In this matchup, we have two teams that will rely heavily on the ground game, which will likely result in slow inefficient drives and a consistently running play clock.
On top of that, the Ravens and Browns are divisional rivals. Like an old married couple, they know each other’s tendencies and tricks — and they hate each other. No easy points will be given.
Add in the fact that this is an outdoor game with the weather getting colder, and the under becomes highly attractive. In divisional games played outdoors in December and January, the under is 292-230-15 (8.9% ROI).
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield should be healthier coming out of the Week 13 bye, but he has been battling shoulder, foot, and groin injuries for the past month, and over that span the Browns have averaged just 10 points per game as he has completed only 50.6% of his passes with 4.8 adjusted yards per attempt-.
As for the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown eight interceptions over his past four games.
When the Browns and Ravens played in Week 12, they combined for just 26 points.
Action: Under 43 (-110) at PointsBet
Limit: 41.5 (-110)
Cowboys -4.5 at Football Team
It’s not as if the entirety of quarterback Dak Prescott’s career can be broken down to one split … but it kind of can.
Against his NFC East rivals, the Cowboys passer has overperformed. Against non-divisional opponents, Prescott has been less than mediocre.
- Prescott in Division: 19-8 ATS | 38.3% ROI
- Prescott Outside Division: 25-29-2 ATS | -9.2% ROI
On average, the Cowboys with Prescott have outperformed the spread by a margin of +5.4 points against the NFC East. They haven’t just beaten their division. They’ve dominated it.
In offensive expected points added (EPA), the Cowboys are No. 11 per play (0.055); the Football Team, No. 19 (0.015).
In defensive EPA, the Cowboys are No. 5 (-0.069); the Football Team, No. 30 (0.112, per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter website).
Anything the Football Team can do, the Cowboys can do better.
With three extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys should cover.
Action: Cowboys -4.5 at BetMGM
Limit: -6.5 (-110)
Packers -11.5 vs. Bears
I’m a simple man. I live by a few rules.
One of them is that I bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at home, where he’s an outrageous 67-36-4 ATS for his career.
Say whatever you want about the predictiveness of trends, but not betting on Rodgers at Lambeau Field has historically been the equivalent of refusing free money.
Additionally, Rodgers has been absurdly dominant against the NFC North. For his career, he’s 48-28 ATS in division — and 24-12 ATS at home against division.
Off the bye, I expect the Packers to be sharp as cheese — #NailedIt — given that Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS off the bye week. Against the NFC North, he’s 5-0 ATS off the bye.
And he’s playing the Bears, whom, in case you’ve forgotten, he owns.
Day 9 tweeting Aaron Rodgers owning the Chicago fraud Bears pic.twitter.com/oUUb6X0EbP
— Davante adams Burner (13-11) (9-1) and (7-4)🧀 (@OfficialMAin600) December 5, 2021
No team has been more generous to Packers bettors than the Bears, against whom Rodgers is 20-7 ATS.
And against Bears head coach Matt Nagy, Rodgers and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are 5-0 ATS.
The 2021 Packers are a league-best 10-2 ATS.
I’m admittedly a square — but I can’t imagine not betting on Rodgers and the Packers in this spot.
Action: Packers -11.5 at DraftKings
Limit: -13.5 (-110)
