Our NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action's Predictive Analytics team — are updated for Week 15.
The only new entry into the top five is the Kansas City Chiefs. This matches their highest luck rank of the year, which came in Week 12 when they failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams.
For more on how our luck rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 15 NFL Luck Rankings!
Luck-Based NFL Power Rankings
Note: Luck% represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.
| RANK | Team | Luck% |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27.1% | |
| 2 | 23.7% | |
| 3 | 22.3% | |
| 4 | 17.0% | |
| 5 | 16.6% | |
| 6 | 15.1% | |
| 7 | 13.0% | |
| 8 | 12.8% | |
| 9 | 11.3% | |
| 10 | 11.1% | |
| 11 | 9.3% | |
| 12 | 9.2% | |
| 13 | 5.1% | |
| 14 | 2.4% | |
| 15 | -0.8% | |
| 16 | -0.8% | |
| 17 | -2.2% | |
| 18 | -3.5% | |
| 19 | -5.1% | |
| 20 | -6.0% | |
| 21 | -6.4% | |
| 22 | -6.7% | |
| 23 | -7.9% | |
| 24 | -9.7% | |
| 25 | -10.7% | |
| 26 | -11.0% | |
| 27 | -12.7% | |
| 28 | -16.4% | |
| 29 | -18.2% | |
| 30 | -22.1% | |
| 31 | -24.1% | |
| 32 | -28.0% |
Using NFL Luck Rankings To Redefine Bad Beats
Our Predictive Analytics team rolled out our inaugural NFL Luck Rankings in Week 5 of the 2022 season as a tool to evaluate possible edges on spreads — and to redefine bad beats in the NFL.
These rankings account for a lot of factors, but they are largely focused on quantifying a team’s on-field performance and comparing it to the actual score of games.
As an example, let’s say the Cowboys are playing the Rams, and the Cowboys win 22-10 despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Hypothetically, you backed the Rams to cover the 5.5-point spread in this game.
In the classical sense of bad beat, you wouldn’t call losing by 12 and failing to cover by 17.5 points a bad beat.
But what if I told you the way these teams actually played on the field was much closer? In fact, what if I told you based off the start of every play, the Rams should have won the game by seven points and covered!? Now, I bet you feel a whole lot worse!
