Week 15 lacks the marquee showdowns of Week 14 and the highly-anticipated divisional affairs of Week 16, but it's still an NFL Sunday, making it easily the best betting day of the week.
It also may be the last "normal" NFL week of the season. Next week features the oh-so-desired Saturday games — an annual late-season treat — while Week 17 is the biggest hodgepodge of games imaginable.
Luckily for us, Week 15 is offering up a few great examples of sharp betting activity. Here are the sharps' top three plays.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Though I had my doubts, the public is indeed all over the Patriots this week: More than 80% of spread bettors expect New England's historic against-the-spread streak to stay alive.
There's been some sharp action on both sides of the spread, but the number is back at the opening line of Patriots -10 at most books. Interestingly enough, the same is not true of the moneyline. With so many bettors looking for some "free money" on a Pats bounceback win, books have had to move the line from the -400/-450 range to north of -600 at some books.
The over/under has seen some true one-sided, Pros vs. Joes sharp action, though.
To my surprise, the under is actually receiving the majority of tickets at 59%. It's the over that the pros have taken a liking to.
After opening at a mere 40 points, the total is up to 41.5 across the market. It's just getting 41% of bets, but the over is commanding more than 60% of the cash and has also seen two Steam Moves.
Is the Patriots' offense as bad as the 17 points they've averaged over their past four games suggests? No. Is their defense, which has allowed 44 fewer points than any other team, really that good? Uh…maybe. Perhaps the public and sharps both get a win in Cincy with a laugher of a Patriots win.
Sharp Angle: Over (moved from 40 to 41.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Here's a game that'll likely see little to no public interest, not unlike a Charlie in the Box or Dolly with an unknown psychological ailment.
Take what I said about the Pats-Bengals total and make it the exact opposite for this game. Public bettors are on the over, and who could blame them considering Tampa Bay's league-leading 58.4 PPG combined on offense and defense?
Sharps like the under, though, perhaps due to both teams' quarterback woes. Jameis Winston's right thumb is fractured, which could cause him to leave the game early or somehow throw more interceptions than he already does. The Lions are expected to start David Blough again, who led the team to just seven points in Minnesota last week.
After opening at 47, the over/under has fallen to 45.5 or 46 depending on the book. The betting percentages are far more lopsided than what we saw for NE/CIN, as 78% of tickets are on the over, but 58% of the cash is on the under — a +36% differential in favor of the under, highest of any spread or total at the time of writing.
Four Bet Signals have also been triggered on the under — two at 47, one at 46.5 and one at 46.
Here's to a sloppy, low-scoring game full of quarterback incompetency.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 47 to 45.5/46)
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
One spread that has seen some sharp action is Vikings-Chargers. I'm talking seriously sharp like the Cabot cheddar cheese.
Professional action has been all over the Chargers. At the time of writing, L.A. has seen a baker's dozen Bet Signals compared to jack squat for the Vikings.
Furthermore, the betting percentages have the textbook bet-vs.-dollar discrepancy.
- Vikings: 70% of bets, 48% of dollars
- Chargers: 30% of bets, 52% of dollars
This is one of the most clear-cut Pros vs. Joes games I have seen in a gnome's age.
As for the line movement, the Vikings have fallen from a -3 road favorite to -1. If we see the sharp onslaught continue, the Chargers may wind up as favorites before the late afternoon Sunday kickoff.
Sharp Angle: Chargers (moved from +3 to +1)
