Monday brought us our seventh consecutive Monday Night Football upset and another shakeup at the top.
The once mighty Eagles and Cowboys tumble down the NFL Power Rankings for Week 16, as the NFC playoff picture gets muddier and muddier outside the likely No. 1 seed 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Bills continue to rise. Just how high should Buffalo rank? How many teams would you rather face than the Bills right now, fresh off wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys? It's not many, and it might not be more than one. The Texans (No. 12), Seahawks (15), and Buccaneers (19) also rise up the rankings after big wins.
And so we come to the week of Christmas, with three weeks left to go in the regular season. What teams have the biggest gifts wrapped and waiting under the tree — and who will find nothing but coal in their stockings on Christmas morning?
If you look for it, I've got a sneaky feeling you'll find that football, actually, is all around.
These are the Week 16 NFL Power Rankings.
(To skip directly to a specific team, click on the team's name in the table below!)
NFL Week 16 Power Rankings
TIER I — STILL FLYING SOLO
1. San Francisco 49ers (Last week ranking: 1)
The 49ers defense took the day off, the offense finished with fewer yards than Cardinals, and it barely mattered. The 49ers nearly matched their namesake in a 45-29 win, with four touchdowns from Brock Purdy and three from Christian McCaffrey.
So which one is more valuable? Don't overthink it. The quarterback touches the ball every play, makes every pass, runs point as the engine of the whole offense. QBs are more valuable, period.
There's little doubt the Niners' offense is special because of the combination of coaching system, all the dangerous weapons, left tackle Trent Williams, and Purdy as the puppet master of it all, pulling the strings. He might have a smaller piece of the pie than other do-it-all QBs, but the San Francisco pie is way bigger than every other team and Purdy is still the biggest piece. He also provides value by being dirt cheap against the cap, allowing San Francisco to keep all those weapons around him.
Purdy leads the league in passing TDs and ranks second in yards. He leads the league in EPA, Success Rate, and EPE + CPOE by laughable margins, lapping the field. He's an easy MVP right now, and it would be a team win, just like almost every other MVP win.
WHO is this year's mvp, i just CANT figure it out[
#1 EPA/play 0.391 BROCK PURDY
— 0.166 gap —
#2 EPA/play 0.225 Dak Prescott
— 0.174 gap —
#16 EPA/play 0.051 Russell Wilson#1 EPA + CPOE 0.221 BROCK PURDY
— 0.065 gap —
#2 EPA + CPOE 0.156 Tua Tagovailoa
— 0.064 gap –… pic.twitter.com/Zee1kWku0Y— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) December 18, 2023
San Francisco is still listed at +100 odds to win the NFC at BetMGM and is now a massive favorite to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC after the Cowboys and Eagles losses.
Would you take the 49ers or the field? FTN makes it a clear choice at 73.7%, showing clear value both there and on San Francisco's Super Bowl odds at +225 (BetMGM), which FTN puts at almost a coin flip now.
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TIER II — BRING ON THE NINERS
2. Baltimore Ravens (3)
Sunday night felt like an easy Ravens win, but the game was much closer than it looked. Jacksonville had a questionable TD taken off the board by review that could've cut it to a one-score game in the fourth quarter, and the Jaguars left a ton of points on the board. Baltimore was better, but not by as much as the 23-7 final score would indicate.
Lamar Jackson ran 12 times for 97 yards, but it's worrisome that he's taking on more and more of this offense. Baltimore has lost J.K. Dobbins, Keaton Mitchell, and Mark Andrews for the season. There's not a ton of explosion left outside of Jackson, and he was bad on late-down passes at -0.79 EPA per play.
I'm starting to wonder if Baltimore is really as good as its metrics.
The Ravens got huge home wins midseason against Lions and Seahawks teams that don't look as strong in hindsight. They crushed the Browns, with a bad backup QB making a last minute start. They beat up on the Texans, back in Week 1 with C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut without most of his line.
Baltimore should arguably have won all three of its losses, but the Ravens are about to be tested against high-powered attacks with the 49ers and Dolphins up next. Is this defense as good as the metrics suggest? Is the offense high-powered enough to keep up?
If you believe in the Ravens and expect them to win this huge Christmas Night showdown in San Francisco, Jackson is a must-bet at +500 (FanDuel) to win MVP with a chance to beat Purdy head-to-head.
Christmas Night could be a Super Bowl preview. FTN has this Ravens-49ers matchup at 34.5% likely, better than one in three. That means value on betting that exact matchup at +500 (DraftKings), and it means there's still value on Baltimore to make (+225) and win (+550) the Super Bowl (both BetRivers).
3. Buffalo Bills (5)
The Bills are suddenly the team nobody wants to face after big wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys. They more than tripled up Dallas in yardage outside of a late garbage-time TD drive, and the most impressive part was the way Buffalo did it with defense and a power run game — with little needed from Josh Allen.
James Cook was awesome with 221 combined yards and two scores. He's been cooking since Joe Brady took over the offense, averaging 141 yards per game with an increased role in the passing game. More balance is good, and it makes Allen all the more dangerous when he does do his thing.
The Bills' defense was awesome for a month, then cratered for five weeks with injuries, but bounced back and now ranks top 10 in DVOA on the season and sixth over the past five games. The Bills look more complete and more dangerous than ever. Win out against Easton Stick and Bailey Zappe, then in Miami, and the Bills make the playoffs and can even win the division if Miami loses once more.
Two weeks ago in this column, we played Buffalo at +1700 to win the division and Allen at +5000 to win MVP. Those odds now sit at +200 and +1400.
There's no value on the division now and actually slight value to miss the playoffs (+175, BetRivers) if anything, but Allen may still have MVP value. If the Bills win out, the New York Times playoff simulator has Buffalo around a coin flip at a top-3 seed, and that might be enough if Purdy stumbles.
Buffalo is +195 to win out and go over its 10.5 win total (DraftKings). Unless the Bills lose against the Chargers or Patriots, that's a Week 18 ML price in Miami, where Buffalo could end up favored. As long as Buffalo wins its next two against backup QBs, that should provide an easy profitable hedge.
The Bills are back, and they look as dangerous as ever. Buffalo can still win the whole thing.
TIER III — WE BELONG, BUT ONLY AT OUR BEST
4. Kansas City Chiefs (7)
The Chiefs coasted to an easy win against the Patriots, and Rashee Rice has finally stepped forward as a go-to WR for Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City has felt disappointing and off all season but still ranks top 10 on offense, defense, and special teams by DVOA. The Chiefs are quietly coasting to a "bad" 12-5 season, another division title, a top-2 seed, and possibly a sixth straight AFC Championship Game. That Mahomes guy is pretty good.
5. Dallas Cowboys (2)
The Cowboys finally got that big win over a top team, then immediately followed it up with a classic Dallas stinker against the Bills that looked just like every other Cowboys letdown the past few years.
I already wrote a whole column about that Dallas letdown against Buffalo so you can read more there. The Cowboys are 3-4 on the road, though Philadelphia's Monday night has cracked the door open once again for a division title and all those Dak Prescott futures. It's still just a crack though, and Sunday likely relegated the Cowboys to the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
The Cowboys are a great team — Sunday didn't change that — but they face a pretty uphill road now.
6. Detroit Lions (9)
The Lions rolled the Broncos Saturday night 42-17, with Jared Goff throwing five TDs and Detroit getting big games from all its playmakers. The Lions averaged 7.0 yards per play and looked the best they had in a month, and it's probably not a coincidence since center Frank Ragnow returned to the lineup.
The Lions rank 2nd in EPA per play with Ragnow on the field and just 27th when he's off, per Nate Tice, and Detroit is now 7-1 when it has Ragnow and both tackles for every offensive snap, versus just 3-3 in other games.
Could the healthy Lions be a sleeping giant in the NFC? Detroit controls its destiny now for at least the No. 2 seed thanks to that Philly loss. Do the Lions have a path to the NFC Championship Game?
7. Miami Dolphins (8)
It may not mean much to see the Dolphins beat the corpse of the Jets 30-0, but it was another impressive performance for this defense and just enough from an offense missing a lot of key names in a tough matchup. Miami needed this one with the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills left on the schedule.
Those three opponent all rank top 10 in interceptions, with Baltimore leading the league. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown an interception in eight of the last 11 games, and he ranks ninth in Turnover-Worthy Passes at PFF. He's got 10 picks right now. Interceptions leader Sam Howell has 15 but was benched Sunday for part of the game, and Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes are next but have soft upcoming schedules.
If you think the Dolphins struggle down the stretch against these tough defenses, Tagovailoa could be an intriguing long shot to lead the league in interceptions at +1600 (bet365).
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8. Philadelphia Eagles (6)
And that's why it matters when you consistently play one-score games against sub-.500 competition.
The Eagles gave away a game Monday night that they probably should've gone up 14-0 before the half, and suddenly Philadelphia has lost three straight games with Jalen Hurts after going 26-3 with him these past two seasons before this stretch.
Philadelphia felt dominant early and had several long, clock-eating drives but never closed the door, and Seattle had the more explosive offense and benefited from a pair of over-aggressive Jalen Hurts interceptions. Philly's offense just has never felt like it's in a rhythm this year under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the defense quietly turned over playcalling from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia.
Philadelphia's dream of a No. 1 seed is likely dead now, and the Eagles do not even quite control their destiny for the division or a home game anymore. This loss in Seattle is a stark contrast to what the Cowboys offense did just a couple weeks ago. The Eagles are still 10-4 but fading quickly and searching for answers.
TIER IV — WE CAN GET THERE … AND BEAT SOMEONE TOO
9. Los Angeles Rams (10)
The Rams offense demolished another opponent, though Washington made it fake close late, and Los Angeles remains scorching hot. The Rams still have work to do just to make the postseason, but LA might have weirdly been a big winner on Monday night.
On the surface, a Seahawks win should be bad for the Rams since it's another team tied at 7-7. But LA swept the Seahawks so it owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, and Philadelphia's loss makes it likely that San Francisco will be in position to rest in Week 18 — in a home game against the Rams.
Most metrics have the Rams around a coin flip to make the playoffs right now, but the NYT simulator has L.A. over 90% if it wins the next two games against the Saints and Giants, and all but a lock if L.A. wins out. Rams -4 this Thursday night against New Orleans was my Lookahead and Hot Read pick.
The metrics say otherwise, but I actually see some value on LA to make the playoffs at -110 (BetRivers) because of the huge swing that Week 18 matchup could be if the 49ers sit guys. The Rams are the real deal, and this offense is playing as well as any outside of San Francisco.
10. Cleveland Browns (4)
Perhaps ranking the Browns 4th last week was a bit earnest. Cleveland needed 17 fourth-quarter points to come back and beat the Bears but got the job done, and this team has found its formula. The defense is good enough to keep things close, and Joe Flacco can make a couple plays when he needs to.
The Browns were actually the far better team on the day, compiling 141 more yards than Chicago on 2.2 more yards per play against a really good Bears defense. Flacco has thrown at least 44 times in all three starts now since coming straight out of retirement, and though his numbers are wobbly, that makes for a pretty compelling Comeback Player of the Year selection (+2000, BetRivers).
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (11)
Sunday night's scoreline flattered Baltimore, but Jacksonville wasn't as bad as the final score looked. The Jaguars reached the 33, 36, 18, and 5-yard line all before halftime but managed to finish the half scoreless thanks to a couple missed field goals, a fumble, and poor clock management.
Per Opta Stats, the Jaguars are the only team in history to have multiple drives to end with a missed field goal, multiple to end on a fumble, and multiple to end in the red zone on downs or halftime. Yeah, you're gonna lose the game when that happens. All in all, not a terrible loss against a great Baltimore squad.
Of course, it all counts the same in the standings, and the Jaguars now sit in a three-way tie atop the AFC South with Trevor Lawrence in concussion protocol. A defense that looked great early in the season is faltering late, and it may be up to the defense to make the final push now.
I've got my eye on Josh Allen — the Jaguars one.
He's sitting on 13.5 sacks but will face Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, and Will Levis the next three weeks. All three teams are top 10 in sacks allowed, with Young second most and a Levis-Tannehill combo third. Allen had a 40.9% Pass Rush Win Rate against Baltimore, an absurd number considering only two players are above 25% for the season, and he has four multi-sack games and tends to get them in bunches.
Allen is +1000 to lead the league in sacks (DraftKings). Two of the four guys ahead of him are playing hurt, and another one had a six-sack game. Allen has 13.5, just 2.5 off the lead. He can erase that deficit in one game. With three games left, Josh Allen to lead the lead in sacks is my favorite season leaders future.
12. Houston Texans (15)
Time and again this season, Texans Island has been near abandonment with a barrage of injuries, and this team keeps finding a way to win when its back is against the wall. This time with no C.J. Stroud or any of his go-to receivers, the defense stepped up on the road and got a huge win in Tennessee to keep the season alive in overtime.
Case Keenum will get the credit, but Devin Singletary was more of the offense, and the defense was much more the answer. Keenum threw a terrible pick-6, which means Houston's defense gave up just nine points otherwise. It sacked Levis seven times, and it also completely shut down Derrick Henry to the tune of 16 carries for just nine yards. Tennessee scored nine points on 11 drives with a 27% Success Rate and managed just 204 yards on 3.2 yards per play.
Incredible effort by the Texans, who are now one more Jaguars loss away from controlling their destiny. Up next? Home games against the Browns and Titans before a potential winner-take-all finale in Indianapolis.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (12)
Saturday's game was every bit the coin flip it looked, but the Bengals came back from down 17-3 and Jake Browning just keeps finding ways to win in Joe Burrow's place.
The Bengals are flawed. The run defense is terrible, the defense can't cover the middle of the field, and the offense is often reduced to chucking it up to the talented WRs to let them make plays. Even that plan is in trouble with Ja'Marr Chase now hurt again, and D.J. Reader is a big loss to the defense.
Cincinnati has won three in a row, but it's still a tough road ahead: at Pittsburgh and Kansas City the next two weeks with the Browns in the finale. At 8-6, Cincinnati likely still needs at least two of those. Saturday's game in Pittsburgh might be a de facto elimination game for both teams.
TIER V — SURE, YOU MIGHT BE FUN FOR ONE PLAYOFF GAME
14. Minnesota Vikings (16)
The Vikings were on the other end of that coin flip loss and probably should've gotten the win, up 17-3 and driving before Nick Mullens threw an interception at the one. Minnesota had other chances to put the game away later too, but alas, you're going to make some mistakes when you're starting your fourth-choice QB.
The Vikings have lost three of four and won the other game with three points, and Minnesota was a loser Monday night since Seattle is another team in the mix but also since it gave Detroit more incentive to keep winning, and the Vikings still play the Lions twice.
The numbers say to invest in the Vikings. Minnesota is home the next two weeks against the Lions and Packers, and it's still possible Detroit could sit guys in the Week 18 matchup. The Vikings are +200 to win at least twice and go over 8.5 wins (BetRivers).
The Vikings are also +2500 to win the division, and that's not as wild a scenario as you think. If the Vikings sweep the Lions, all it would take is Minnesota beating Green Bay while Detroit loses in Dallas next week. FTN makes Minnesota 6.6% to win the NFC North, nearly double the implied 3.8%, so that might be the best long shot on the board with three weeks left.
15. Seattle Seahawks (20)
It felt like Seattle emptied the tank in that home Thursday night game against Dallas a few weeks ago, but this time the Seahawks got the job done at home in primetime to end a four-game losing streak.
All things considered, going 1-3 in a four-week stretch against the 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers again, and Eagles isn't all that bad, especially with Geno Smith injured for half of it. Seattle now comes up for air at 7-7, tied for the final two wildcard spots, with the Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals left on the schedule — and should be favored in all three.
Drew Lock and Jaxon Smith-Njigba saved Seattle's season. Now it's up to the rest of the Seahawks to see what they can do with it.
16. Green Bay Packers (13)
The Packers laid an egg in Lambeau against the Bucs and now sit around 20% to make the postseason in most models, even with the Panthers next on the schedule.
Green Bay's offense was good enough, but Joe Barry's defense was shambolic, allowing Baker Mayfield to have one of his best games ever in a two-TD win. The Bucs converted 22-of-26 series into a first down or touchdown, nearly unstoppable all game, and that's just unacceptable. It's beyond time for Barry to go.
17. Indianapolis Colts (19)
The Colts keep finding ways to win, but I remain skeptical. Shane Steichen has done an incredible job, but Indianapolis still doesn't really have a great win on its schedule and the roster doesn't have a ton of high-end talent. Feels more like the Colts' opponents losing than them winning.
Maybe that doesn't matter in the AFC South, though. Indianapolis heads to Atlanta this week before finishing at home against the Raiders and Texans. If Jacksonville loses once more, that finale against Houston could be for the division crown — Gardner Minshew and all.
TIER VI — THE BEGRUDGING PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
18. Denver Broncos (14)
The Broncos had been getting on with turnover luck for weeks and finally had that luck run out Saturday night, getting absolutely exposed by the Lions in an ugly 42-17 loss.
Detroit was six-for-six in the red zone, so the game probably wasn't quite as bad as the final score looked, but it was a damaging loss either way and a recalibration for a defense that looked like it was finally figuring things out.
Denver is still in good shape with the Patriots and Chargers up next before a trip to Vegas. Win out and the Broncos have over an 80% chance at the playoffs — but as things stand, they're closer to one-in-four.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22)
Holy Baker Mayfield!
Mayfield threw for 381 yards and four scores against the Packers, though he was also sacked five times, one of them a strip sack inside his own 10 that effectively gifted Green Bay a touchdown. Mayfield was especially good on late downs, and he continues to give Chris Godwin and Mike Evans chances to win.
Now the Bucs could face a Jaguars team missing Lawrence, and Tampa still gets the Panthers in the finale. In between is a home game against the Saints. Win that one and the Bucs should be in the playoffs. They might get there even without.
There's some value on Tampa Bay both to make the playoffs (-290, FanDuel) and win the NFC South (-135, FanDuel).
20. New Orleans Saints (24)
The Saints have back-to-back wins now by dominant score lines of 24-6 and 28-6, but I'm underwhelmed. The Giants and Panthers are terrible, and if anything, it's pretty problematic that New Orleans barely cracked 500 yards of offense combined in those two games.
Still, the Saints have survived and gotten wins they had to have amidst a barrage of injuries, and next week's trip to Tampa Bay is likely for the division. That's about all New Orleans can ask for at this point.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (32)
The Steelers were gifted a 13-0 start thanks to a blocked punt and promptly gave up 30 consecutive points to the Colts. Pittsburgh is now pretty close to drawing dead for the postseason, and Mike Tomlin's never-below-.500 streak is in real jeopardy too.
Pittsburgh finished with just 212 yards against Indianapolis and allowed Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to run all over the defense. Now Mitchell Trubisky has been benched as the Steelers hope Mason Rudolph's nose shines bright on the eve of Christmas to light the way back to relevancy. Desperate times.
TIER VII — PLAYING THE SPOILER ROLE
22. Chicago Bears (17)
The Bears blew another very winnable game against Cleveland, and this team continues to play pretty good football, other than the whole winning games part.
The defense is still trending up, with the run defense now 3rd in DVOA on the season, and Chicago has a real chance to win out against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Packers. The Bears need two wins to go over their 6.5 win total (-105, FanDuel). FTN has them at 6.9 wins, and I like Chicago in all three matchups.
23. Las Vegas Raiders (28)
Well, okay then. The Raiders made the first coaching change in the AFC West and are now responsible for the second after an absolute demolition of the Chargers. Las Vegas went up 42-0 at the half, and Aidan O'Connell had the time of his life with four touchdown passes.
The bigger story might be the Raiders defense, which has really come together and impressed over the back half of the season. Vegas can spoil someone's season these last three weeks.
24. New York Jets (18)
Honestly, what's left to say about an offense this miserable?
The Jets ran 12 times for 23 yards without gaining a rushing first down. Zach Wilson had as many sacks (four) as completions before leaving hurt.
At halftime of a 30-0 loss in Miami, the Jets had gained four yards in 27 plays.
That's about 5.3 inches per play — for an entire half of football.
For reference, that's about the length of a pen.
If you're reading this on your phone, your eyes just moved further reading about the Jets than their offense did on every play for an entire half of professional football.
25. Tennessee Titans (26)
Finally, the Titans are back at 25 at last.
All is right again in the world.
26. New York Giants (21)
All good things must come to an end, and Tommy DeVito ate seven sacks and a loss before heading home for some chicken parm. The Giants managed just 193 yards of offense, going 2-of-12 on third down against a defense that had ranked 30th in DVOA the previous five weeks.
Holy cannoli.
27. Arizona Cardinals (27)
The Cardinals scored 29 points against the 49ers! They even had more yards!
That's pretty good, if you just ignore the 45 on the other side of the scoreboard.
TIER VIII — GO SIT IN THE CORNER AND THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU DID
28. Atlanta Falcons (23)
I've had it with Desmond Ridder and the Falcons. This team is cooked, and I'm dumping them into the cellar tier where they belong.
Ridder threw another horrendous interception near the goal line late in a must-win game up 7-6. Atlanta ran for -0.60 EPA per play on 29 rushes, a truly horrible performance against one of the league's worst run defenses. As for defense, Atlanta's gave up a 17-play 90-yard drive to allow the one-win Panthers to walk it off in a victory.
The Falcons led the division as recently as two weeks ago. They're now down to around 5% or lower and sit at -800 to miss the playoffs. Good riddance to them and to Arthur Smith.
29. Washington Commanders (29)
With 4:47 left against the Rams, down two scores, Jacoby Brissett completed a bomb to Terry McLaurin that was ruled a touchdown before being overturned by replay, putting him down at the one.
Somehow it took Washington NINE plays to get the ball into the end zone from there, leaving just 1:46 on the clock. "Riverboat" Ron Rivera didn't bother to do the analytics thing and go for two, so the football gods punished Washington by allowing the extra point to get blocked, and that was that.
And that is the Commanders' season in a nutshell.
30. Carolina Panthers (31)
Before the season, I went all-in on two sleepers to go worst-to-first in the division: the Falcons and Texans.
The Panthers are now 2-12 with a pair of walk-off two-point wins to their name for the season.
They came against the Falcons and Texans.
Stay up to date with the latest on bet365 North Carolina!
31. New England Patriots (30)
The Patriots hung around without every competing, which might be the new Bill Belichick way.
How utterly non-threatening is New England these days?
The Chiefs got the ball back on the Patriots' six with 2:35 left, up 10 points with a New England timeout left, and they simply ran up the middle once, then knelt three times — including on fourth down, with a free field goal just sitting there and a turnover on downs with 44 seconds left.
New England ran once and jogged off the field. Down 10.
Truly pathetic.
32. Los Angeles Chargers (25)
I don't have many rules in life, but one of them is this: when you go down 42-0 at the half, lose 63-21, and fire your head coach and general manager the next day, you get the bottom spot in the Power Rankings for the week.
Sorry, Easton Stick.
NFL Week 16 Power Rankings
- San Francisco 49ers (Last week ranking: 1)
- Baltimore Ravens (3)
- Buffalo Bills (5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7)
- Dallas Cowboys (2)
- Detroit Lions (9)
- Miami Dolphins (8)
- Philadelphia Eagles (6)
- Los Angeles Rams (10)
- Cleveland Browns (4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (11)
- Houston Texans (15)
- Cincinnati Bengals (12)
- Minnesota Vikings (16)
- Seattle Seahawks (20)
- Minnesota Vikings (13)
- Indianapolis Colts (19)
- Denver Broncos (14)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22)
- New Orleans Saints (24)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (32)
- Chicago Bears (17)
- Las Vegas Raiders (28)
- New York Jets (18)
- Tennessee Titans (26)
- New York Giants (21)
- Arizona Cardinals (27)
- Atlanta Falcons (23)
- Washington Commanders (29)
- Carolina Panthers (31)
- New England Patriots (30)
- Los Angeles Chargers (25)
