The weirdest week of them all is here — Week 17. Who's trying to win? Who's trying to lose? Who knows?
There's already been plenty of line movement throughout the week thanks to personnel news, which you can keep track of here. Hate to be the poor fella who took Vikings -7… yikes. (Nothing like being on the wrong side of a 10-point line move.
While I won't discuss in detail the lines that moved due to resting players, there are still some true sharp moves out there that need addressing.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
1 p.m. ET | FOX
After a wildly disappointing season that may result in more than just a head coaching change per Michael Lombardi of The Athletic, 73% of bettors are backing the Browns. I guess that may be more of a message about the one-win Bengals than it is the Browns.
Wouldn't it just be the perfect ending to Cleveland's season if it lost to Cincy, though? That's what the sharps are banking on.
The lowly Bengals are getting 58% of the cash despite their low ticket count in addition to nine Bet Signals, which are indicators of professional betting activity. All nine of these have come on +3, showing just how important the line is to sharps, as opposed to the team. Hammer this into your heads — the sharps don't like the Bengals, they like the Bengals +3.
This sharp activity hasn't resulted in wild line movement. Given the importance of the key number of three, some books have been reluctant to move the line at all.
Those that remain at CIN +3 have juiced the Bengals' line heavily, while those that have moved to 2.5 have heavily juiced Cleveland's line. A full blown move to 2.5 (-110) across the market would likely result in a big wave of Browns action, which the books don't want to see based on their actions.
Sharp Angle: Bengals (line freeze at +3 or moved from +3 to +2.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1 p.m. ET | FOX
It was a sweaty game, but the sharps finally hit on a Bucs under last week thanks to a nine-point second half. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out again for the Bucs, sharps are taking another chance on the under this week against the Falcons.
This is another pretty clear Pros vs. Joes affair, as the over is getting 70% of the action, but just 43% of the money. This under has also seen nine Bet Signals, with the two most recent coming in on under 48 on Friday.
This total opened as the only one in Week 17 above 50, but thanks to all this sharp action on the under, it's down between 47 and 48 around the market.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 50/50.5 to 47-48)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
All right, Eagles. Just beat the 4-11 Giants and their rookie quarterback and you are the NFC East champs. Think you can handle that?
Nobody seems too confident in their ability to do that. They're getting 58% of spread bets, but just 46% of moneyline bets. Normally people bet on the teams that need to win, but the public is showing some trepidation with this up-and-down Eagles squad.
Sharp bettors are taking their chances with the home dog. We've tracked eight Bet Signals on the Giants, beginning on Sunday night and continuing on through Friday. The Zach Ertz injury certainly didn't help the Eagles' cause, but sharps were already showing their true colors before that news came through.
After reaching +5 at several books, the Giants can now be found at +4 and even +3.5, though no sharp activity has been tracked at that number. Four is not as important of a number as three, but it is still one of the most important numbers in NFL spread betting, on par with six and behind three, seven and 10.
Giants fans may want their team to lose for a better draft pick, but if history is any indication, the Giants are actually a really strong betting option in Week 17.
Sharp Angle: Giants (moved from +5 to +4/+3.5)
