Our NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are updated for Week 18.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank as the luckiest team in the NFL to close out the 2022-23 regular season. Their 6-1 record in one-score games, 3-0 record in games decided by a field goal or less certainly contribute. They have only a +45 expected score differential, which is more indicative of a 10-win team than a 13-win team.
For more on how our luck rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Without further ado, here are the final NFL Luck Rankings for the 2022-23 regular season!
Luck-Based NFL Power Rankings
Note: Luck% represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.
| RANK | Team | Luck% |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22.1% | |
| 2 | 20.7% | |
| 3 | 18.7% | |
| 4 | 17.7% | |
| 5 | 17.6% | |
| 6 | 13.3% | |
| 7 | 9.9% | |
| 8 | 9.3% | |
| 9 | 5.9% | |
| 10 | 4.3% | |
| 11 | 4.0% | |
| 12 | 3.5% | |
| 13 | 2.7% | |
| 14 | 2.2% | |
| 15 | 2.2% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | |
| 18 | -2.2% | |
| 19 | -2.4% | |
| 20 | -2.8% | |
| 21 | -3.8% | |
| 22 | -4.0% | |
| 23 | -5.3% | |
| 24 | -5.6% | |
| 25 | -6.8% | |
| 26 | -8.4% | |
| 27 | -9.9% | |
| 28 | -14.0% | |
| 29 | -17.7% | |
| 30 | -21.9% | |
| 31 | -22.4% | |
| 32 | -23.0% |
Using NFL Luck Rankings To Redefine Bad Beats
Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team rolled out its inaugural NFL Luck Rankings in Week 5 of the 2022 season as a tool to evaluate possible edges on spreads — and to redefine bad beats.
These rankings account for a lot of factors, but they are largely focused on quantifying a team’s on-field performance and comparing it to the actual score of games.
As an example, let’s say the Cowboys are playing the Rams, and Dallas wins 22-10 despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Hypothetically, you backed the Rams to cover the 5.5-point spread in this game.
In the classical sense of bad beat, you wouldn’t call losing by 12 and failing to cover by 17.5 points a bad beat.
But what if I told you the way these teams actually played on the field was much closer? In fact, what if I told you based on the start of every play, the Rams should have won the game by seven points and covered!? Now, I bet you feel a whole lot worse!
