It was a good week 1 for the underdogs, as the three biggest all covered, continuing a profitable trend over the years. The Patriots (+8), Broncos (+6.5) and Cardinals (+6.5) all covered but only New England was able to pull off the huge straight-up win.
According to Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, teams getting 6.5 points or more in Week 1 are now 42-27 against the spread, hitting at a 65% clip since 2006. Not only that, but the big 'dogs combined have gone over .500 in 18 of the past 19 seasons.
The Cardinals and Broncos cashed by the skin of their teeth with both hitting by a half-point. Arizona trailed the Buffalo Bills 10 with 8:44 to go after Josh Allen scored his second rushing touchdown. However, they punched right back, returning the ensuing kickoff 96 yards to make it a six-point game.
They went for a two-point conversion, proving to be the difference maker when James Conner punched it in. Buffalo scored a late field goal, but the successful two-point conversion made it a six-point win instead of seven, swinging a sizeable portion of money.
Meanwhile, Denver scored a late touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks with 2:09 left in the game to pull off the cover. It actually looked like they’d cover for most of the game, either leading or staying within six points of Seattle for the first three quarters.
However, Zach Charbonnet’s 40-yard touchdown catch six seconds into the fourth quarter put the Seahawks ahead, 26-13. While Denver couldn’t complete the rally, they did enough to cover the spread as a big ‘dog.
Then there’s the Patriots, who pulled off the single-biggest upset in six years by beating the Cincinnati Bengals, 16-10. Getting eight points also made them the second-biggest Week 1 'dog since 2000, but it didn’t seem to matter as they held Joe Burrow and company to only 10 points while scratching across 16.
Finally, the Cardinals were the only team of the three who the public liked to cover. Kyler Murray and company had 64% of all bets and 59% of the money while the Patriots had just 31% and 33% and Broncos 47% and 34%, respectively.
