A few weeks ago on The Action Network on Sirius XM, I got a chance to interview former Mets general manager Steve Phillips — an avid fantasy player — and asked him what skill from being a real-life GM translated to fantasy the most.
His answer: Knowing what value other teams place on your players and their own player, and then being willing to constantly float potential trade offers that will improve your team.
With that, here are four players whom you should be valuing more highly than other owners in your league might, and four more you should be willing to let others take off your hands.
Trade Targets
RB Sony Michel, Patriots
Michel was stifled for an embarrassing 14 yards on 15 carries in a performance that would have made 2018 Ronald Jones proud.
But after facing a stout Steelers run defense that ranks fourth in Pro Football Focus' run defense grades after one week, Michel's schedule eases up considerably:
- Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh: fourth
- Week 2 at Miami 14th
- Week 3 vs. NY Jets: 23rd
- Week 4 at Buffalo: 21st
- Week 5 at Washington: 30th
- Week 6 vs. N.Y. Giants: 24th
- Week 7 at N.Y. Jets: 23rd
- Week 8 vs. Cleveland: 15th
- Weeks 2-8 avg.: 20th
Michel's 15 carries accounted 55% of the backfield carries, which is more or less in line with last season (16.0, 61%). Antonio Brown's presence will make it even harder for Patriots opponents to worry about the run. Michel has better days ahead.
WR Mike Evans, Bucs
Evans played through an illness and managed only 2-28-0 on five targets, but his 35% air yard market share was actually 2% higher than last season.
WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings
Like Evans, Diggs played through an injury and caught only two balls. The Vikings may want to go run-heavy, but 10 pass attempts is still going to go down as a huge outlier. His air yards market share was a robust 57% (third-highest in Week 1), so he should turn it around in short order.
WR Donte Moncrief, Steelers
Despite an ugly 3-7 performance, Moncrief tied for the lead among Steelers WRs in snaps (90%), led the team in targets (10), and was second in air yard share (20%).
The Patriots have been a shutdown defense against wide receivers dating back to the middle part of last season, but the next three games on the docket all feature defensive units that got burned by opposing WR2s in Week 1:
- Week 2 vs. Seattle: Allowed 7-158-2 to CIN WR2 John Ross
- Week 3 at San Francisco: Allowed 3-53-1 to TB WR2 Chris Godwin
- Week 4 vs. Cincinnati: Allowed 4-89-0 to SEA WR2 D.K. Metcalf
Sell High
RB Ronald Jones, Bucs
Led the team with 14 carries but played fewer snaps than both Dare Ogunbowale (26) and Peyton Barber (25), including just 17.8% of passing down snaps.
WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Sutton went off for 7-120-0 against a Raiders secondary that ranked in the bottom six by Pro Football Focus heading into the season.
Now gets three matchups vs. top-four units over the next four weeks, as they take on the Bears (second) in Week 2, Jaguars (third) in Week 4, and Chargers (fourth) in Week 5. Mixed in is a Week 3 tilt with a Packers (17th) defense that allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards in Week 1.
WR D.J. Chark, Jaguars
Chark caught 4-of-4 passes for 126 yards, but his average target depth was 26.8 and his target share was 12%. It's tough for a percentage route runner to keep up this kind of efficiency — especially a team's starting quarterback just went on IR.
TE Jimmy Graham, Packers
Graham was in on only 57.5% of Green Bay's pass plays, had no business catching the touchdown that he did, and otherwise continued his overall trend of declining efficiency, posted only 30 yards despite 6 targets and 117 air yards.
