It's never too early to start betting next week's NFL slate, and it's often the easiest way to beat the market if you know what you're looking for.
Our staff broke down their favorite plays below, counting on regression from the magic Raiders and looking at an overreaction to the Broncos' hot start.
Week 4 NFL Odds & Picks
Seahawks at 49ers
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Chris Raybon: Russell Wilson is 20-11-2 (65%) against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog and 26-14-4 (65%) ATS when coming off a loss — both situations he finds himself in here.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, on the other hand, is 8-19-1 (30%) ATS as a favorite.
Seattle is the more desperate team here. And San Francisco's banged-up secondary and man coverage does not bode well against Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
I like this down to +3 (-125).
Ravens at Broncos
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Raheem Palmer: The Denver Broncos have been downright dominant this season, winning by an average of 16 points per game. Of course, they’ve been fortunate to play one of the easiest schedules in the NFL — facing the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets. These teams are a combined 0-6 straight-up and are ranked 22nd, 31st and 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA this season.
Now they take a big step up in competition against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who snatched victory for the jaws of defeat with a NFL record 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker. The preseason lookahead line on this game was Ravens -3.5 and now we’re sitting at a consensus Ravens +1.5 with there also being +2s and a single +2.5 in the market.
Nonetheless, I can’t help but feel like this is an over adjustment given the competition these teams have faced. Did we forget the Ravens did knock off Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? We’ll likely go into more detail on this game as we head into the week but this is a game where the injuries to Bradley Chubb, KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy and Ronald Darby come back to bite them. I think the Ravens are being undervalued in this spot so I’ll grab the 1-2 points here.
Giants at Saints
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Mike Randle: The Giants fell to 0-3 after a last-second 17-14 home loss to Atlanta. They also suffered key injuries to wide receiver Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring), and middle linebacker Blake Martinez (knee). They now travel down to Jacksonville to face a New Orleans team coming off an impressive 28-13 win at New England.
With the limited passing weapons, I expect the Giants to rely heavily on running back Saquon Barkley. That will be tough sledding against a New Orleans run defense that ranks third in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The Saints just held New England to just 2.9 yards per carry.
New York also entered Week 3 with the second-worst offensive line ranking per PFF. They have allowed eight sacks this season, and now just registered two sacks and 11 hits on New England quarterback Mac Jones.
The Giants don't have the personnel on either side of the ball to keep up with New Orleans. Their season is trending downward, and the loss of Martinez is critical against the rushing attack of Alvin Kamara.
I don't see how the Giants can score enough with their wide receiver injuries to keep this game close, and I don't have any faith in the Giants defense to slow down at New Orleans offense that scored 38 points in their last home games against a much better Green Bay team. I would bet this line up to New Orleans -9.5.
Raiders at Chargers
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Brandon Anderson: The Chargers were my Upset Special heading into Week 3 and they got the job done in a huge road win over the Chiefs.
The Chargers got a two-score lead early but then fell behind in the second half and had to battle back for a wild finish that included multiple stops by the defense. All the attention will be on Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, but the defense has really impressed me so far.
Brandon Staley has this unit playing well above its pay grade, and that two-deep look really worked against the Chiefs. The Chargers are dropping two safeties and using mixed fronts and forcing teams to check down and go on long drives to beat them. LA's run defense has been vulnerable but that might be by design since it limits the more dangerous passing game, and Vegas had the second worst Rushing Offensive DVOA entering Week 2.
Derek Carr and the Raiders offense are playing great, but ironically, they've been doing it with big plays dialed up down the field rather than the usual Captain Checkdown game that Carr has been known for the last few years. If the Chargers can take away the passing game down the field, they could make this Raiders offense uncomfortable.
Vegas is 3-0, but I'm not sold in the least. They haven't won comfortably in any game, with two of the victories coming at home in overtime. That's two super emotional wins in a 13-day span, and I think it all starts to catch up these next few weeks as the schedule tightens up. The Raiders have also skated by on defense against three offenses that weren't particularly threatening, but Herbert and the Chargers are another animal entirely. Las Vegas could have a hard time slowing this LA offense down.
I worried that LA's big upset might ruin the Week 4 value, but the Raiders eked out their win to keep this line at -3. I don't expect it to stay there, so I'm grabbing the Chargers before they get talked up all week and hyped beyond that key number. I like the Chargers to get the big Monday night win at home and ruin the Raiders perfect season.
