NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Broncos & Rams To Cover Week 4 Spreads? Your Guide To Betting Every Game

Editor's note: Previews for the late afternoon games have been moved above the early afternoon ones.

NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions

Cardinals at Rams Odds

Raheem Palmer: Since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017, the Rams are 8-0 straight-up against the Cardinals and 7-1 against the spread, winning by an average margin of 20 points.

Of course, the past doesn’t totally determine the result of this matchup, especially since Murray has only been on the team since 2019, but it says a lot about how the Rams have had their number over the years.

This Cardinals defense hasn't proven it can stop even lower-tier teams like the Jaguars, so the Rams are a much tougher task. With the injuries on the offensive line for the Cardinals, I believe Los Angeles has a huge advantage on the defensive line.

While many people see this as a let down spot for the Rams who are coming off a big win against the Buccaneers, I'm not seeing it. From my view, the public pushing this number down from -6 to -4.5 has created value on the 3-0 Rams, who appear to be heading toward being one of the best teams in the league. I’ll back Los Angeles here.

Pick: Rams -4

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Seahawks at 49ers Odds

Raheem Palmer: Russell Wilson has dominated the San Francisco 49ers in his career, with a 15-4 record straight-up while going 13-5-1 against the spread (ATS).

Trends aside, I do think the number lends itself to taking the Seahawks as my model makes this game 49ers -1.5. Still, I can't recommend a wager on the Seahawks at this current number of +2.5.

I believe the 49ers are the better team and are facing a Seahawks team playing its second straight road game with a struggling offensive line and a defense that truly can't stop anyone. Of course, the Seahawks have the better quarterback in Wilson, but I'm not sure that's enough given offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's inability to adjust in second halves.

The public is overwhelmingly on the Seahawks, but I think the only way to back them is on 6-point teasers moving this up to +8.5 and crossing out key numbers of 3, 6, and 7.

I'd recommend playing the 49ers at -2.5 at this current price if you have to take a side while adding the Seahawks to 6-point teasers.

Lean: 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Pick: Tease Seahawks from +2.5 to +8.5

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Ravens at Broncos Odds

Brandon Anderson: The Ravens we've known over the past few years would probably find a way to win this game. That's the way the public is leaning too, with money pouring in on Baltimore all week, making it the favorite.

But this just might not be those Ravens of old this year.

Really, it feels like the public is still treating Baltimore like the tough defense and old reliable offense, when it's Denver that fits that profile this season so far. The Broncos defense has been fantastic on early downs, and that could leave Baltimore in an uncomfortable position, forced into passing against an elite secondary.

All the better that the line has moved so far from Denver early in the week that the unbeaten Broncos are now underdogs. So far this season, underdogs of three or fewer points are 11-5 ATS, with all 11 covers also winning straight up.

It's pretty rare for an unbeaten team to be an underdog Week 4 or later. Per Action Labs, such unbeaten underdogs are 30-21-2 ATS since 2003, covering 58.8% of the time. They're even better at home, 9-3 ATS with a 75.0% cover rate. In other words: you should bet on undefeated underdogs:

The public continues to go all-in on Baltimore here, but I think they're late to the party for Denver. Maybe Baltimore keeps pulling wins out of thin air, but remember, even the two wins it has have been by three combined points.

Because of that, I'll stick with Denver +1 at -110, which you can find at most books, rather than playing the -105 moneyline. If the Ravens do win, it could be another close one so I'll pay that 10 cents to give me a push option if Baltimore does win by a lone point.

But if the line moves even further in Baltimore's direction by kickoff, it may be time to hit the moneyline too. When in doubt, history says it's a good idea to trust a home unbeaten underdog. They're usually undefeated for a reason.

Pick: Broncos +1

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Steelers at Packers Odds

Michael Arinze: I can't say that I'm all that enamored with Green Bay's defense. However, Pittsburgh has yet to show signs of any competence on offense. Moreover, if you're a Steelers fan, you can't be happy with the recent comments from offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

On Thursday, Canada said there are no plans to make any changes to the offense. That's a pretty damning statement because it almost sounds like this offense, as it's currently constituted, is the best they have to offer.

Rodgers has typically performed well when he's at least a 6.5-point home favorite. However, the total has come down to 45.5 after opening at 48.  It's often more difficult for teams to win by margin if fewer points are available in a game.

As a result, instead of laying almost a touchdown, I'm going to use a standard two-team, six-point teaser to bring Green Bay down to a half-point and pair that with the Buccaneers at -1 on Sunday night.

Pick: Pair Packers -0.5 with Bucs -1 in two-team, six-point teaser

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Week 4 NFL Previews For Early Games

Washington at Falcons Odds

Phillip Kall: This game is a close one as both teams have underwhelmed to this point. The question comes down to if you trust Washington’s defense to shape up or the Falcons offense.

The Football Team’s defense has struggled, but the signs of life from the pass rush are there, even with Chase Young playing poorly. The only area they need to improve is on the backend, and their starters have shown in previous years they can be a solid unit. Even if the defensive backs get back to average play, it should be good enough given their pass rush.

As for the Falcons, the new system and figuring things out post-Jones has not gone well. Their next three leaders in targets are their running backs and Pitts. It is hard to imagine much changing until they start using their rookie tight end like the Swiss army knife he is.

It may be risky to trust Heinicke, who looks like the second coming of Fitzpatrick, but I like Washington’s defense to bounce back and control this game.

Pick: Washington -1.5 (-110) | to -2.5

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Texans at Bills Odds

Phillip Kall: Buffalo has shown a propensity to start their games very strongly. Since the start of 2020, the Bills are an incredible 14-4-1 in the first half against the spread (ATS), according to Bet Labs.

This year, Buffalo's offense has continued that trend by playing aggressive early, throwing the ball about two-thirds of the time in the first quarter. Houston has had trouble stopping teams early in games, allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt and a 97.8 quarterback rating in the opening 15 minutes.

Already at a talent disadvantage, Houston also needs to overcome Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s creativity and early-game planning.

The Bills defense also sets the tone early in games. In the first half of games this season, Buffalo has allowed a passer rating of 66.1 and 2.7 yards per carry, and it has recorded six of their nine sacks. The Bills should look to attack the Texans’ rookie quarterback early and have him playing scared the whole game.

Few lines have been posted for the first quarter, with FOX Bet posting -3.5 as of Friday night. I would take that if it's available, but since it is limited I will give an alternative option.

Back the Bills to continue their first half ATS dominance at -10.

Pick: Bills 1H (-10)

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Lions at Bears Odds

Billy Ward: This game has a minuscule 41-point total at DraftKings. There are a lot of factors that go into that number, first among them being the Bears quarterback struggles. I don't see the Lions defense as posing much of a threat to whomever is under center for the Bears, though.

Detroit's offense also matches up nicely against Chicago's defense and should be able to move the ball on the ground consistently.

This number has been bet down from its 44.5 open, but it's fallen too far. I'll take over 41 (-110) and continue to take it at 41.5 points.

Pick: Over 41 | Bet to 41.5

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Panthers at Cowboys Odds

Michael Arinze: I was all set to play the Cowboys, but I didn't realize their injury report was this lengthy. Despite its poor strength of schedule, Carolina is ranked first overall in Football Outsiders Total DVOA metric — 16 places higher than the Eagles who the Cowboys trounced last week.

The Panthers also come into this game on an impressive 8-0 against the spread (ATS) run. However, five of those covers were with Teddy Bridgewater as the quarterback.

As for the Cowboys, this isn't entirely the best spot for them as they'll be at a disadvantage with fewer days rest after playing on Monday night.

However, they have Dak Prescott, and he's 16-8-1 ATS (7.26 units), as a favorite of four or more points.

Nonetheless, I'm not ready to commit to the Cowboys fully. This game will likely be just a lean for me based on Dallas' lengthy injury report.

Lean: Cowboys -4

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Colts at Dolphins Odds

Mike Vitanza: There are no two ways about it — this is going to be a tough game to watch. Not only do you have two struggling franchises matching up in a game with a projected game total of just 42.5 points, but you also have two teams that will be below full strength due to injury.

Even with the barrage of injuries, the Dolphins project as the better team here at home. They’ll have a matchup advantage across the board while on offense and will undoubtedly trot out the better unit on defense.

If we consider the fact that a three-point spread is considered a standard starting point for a home team, this line insinuates that the Dolphins are the inferior team here. While a fully healthy Colts squad would warrant a more substantial line in favor of Indianapolis, this version with a hobbled Wentz certainly isn’t it.

It won’t be pretty, but at just -2.5, the Dolphins should squeeze out enough offense to cover this minuscule spread. While I’d prefer this at the current number, I’d be comfortable playing it up to -3 if necessary.

Pick: Dolphins -2.5 | Bet to -3

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Browns at Vikings Odds

Joe Klein: Both the Browns and Vikings are bottom six in neutral-situation pace, and Cleveland is dead last in second-half pace. If the Browns have the lead, they will look to keep the ball on the ground and run that clock. The Vikings, with conservative head coach Mike Zimmer, will likely do the same. Both coaches will want to keep this clock moving.

Furthermore, both offenses run the ball a lot on early downs. We won’t be getting explosive plays early in these down sequences as both teams value success rate and keeping the chains moving quite a bit.

I can see the Browns defensive line disrupting the Vikings offensive line if their coverage is able to hold up. This is a good WR corps, but Garrett and Clowney are going to be very difficult for the Vikings to block. Minnesota has been called for the most holding penalties for a reason this season.

This won’t be a fun bet during what should be a great game, but given how slow these teams are and the methodical nature of the offenses, 51.5 is an awfully high number — I'd bet this down to 51.

Pick: Under 51.5

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Giants at Saints Odds

Mike Randle: I expect both defenses to play well, keeping this score low. Normally, this would favor the underdog getting over a touchdown. But the Giants will be so limited on offense that they will not be able to generate enough points against an elite Saints defense.

Despite Barkley's talent, the Giants offensive line will not be able to open enough lanes for New York to generate a consistent rushing attack. I expect New Orleans to continue its turnover advantage in its true home opener in front of a passionate and emotional New Orleans fan base.

This total has dropped from an open of 47 to the current level of 42 points on DraftKings. This may be a low-scoring game, but its one the Saints can still cover. New Orleans covered this spread against Green Bay at home and against New England on the road. In its return to the Caesars Superdome against an injury-filled Giants team, the Saints will do so again.

Pick: Saints -7 | Bet to -8

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Titans at Jets Odds

Mike Vitanza: While the loss of Brown and Jones is a massive blow to this offense, the good news is the matchup against this hapless Jets team could not be any better.

Wilson has struggled to find any sense of consistency in the offense. While the return of Crowder and Mims is good long term for this offense, he’s had no time to build any rhythm with either of these options to date. And that's something that typically takes at least a few weeks of work.

Yes, his matchup against the Titans looks good on paper, but their current defensive ranks are more a function of their early games against the Seahawks and Cardinals than anything else. This unit is more than capable of handling this Jets offense.

On the other side, I expect Henry to be fed the ball early and often, forcing the ball against the 25th-ranked Jets rushing defense for the majority of the day. Tannehill will be able to mix in the pass where needed, even with a subpar group of receiving options.

I’m taking the Titans — even without Brown and Jones — at the current line of -6, but would play it up to -7 if the line shifts before kickoff.

Pick: Titans -6

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Chiefs at Eagles Odds

Brandon Anderson: Excluding a meaningless Week 17 game, an incredible 10 straight Kansas City games have been one-score affairs. The Chiefs won the first eight of those but have now lost two straight, and Kansas City is an ugly 1-9 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

With a line at seven points, oddsmakers are begging us to bet against that stat. All the Eagles have to do is the same thing everyone else has been doing — just keep the game within one score.

Even so, I still can't get there. And it's not about believing in Mahomes as much as my lack of belief in the Eagles attack. Philadelphia scored only 10 points during the meaningful portions of the last two games, and that was against pretty average defenses.

If the Chiefs offense clicks and the Eagles fall behind, is there any reason to believe Hurts and this offense can play catch-up? Then again, Philly does have a pair of garbage touchdowns late the last two games, so maybe they can find the back door.

I considered a lot of angles here.

If the Eagles offense can't score, maybe take Philadelphia's under 23.5 team total. But the Chiefs have allowed at least 29 points in all three games this season.

So how about the game under 54.5? Well, if I'm not confident the Eagles stay below 24, why would I basically want to bet against the Chiefs offense? No thanks.

How about just the Chiefs covering the spread? That feels mostly good because it's really hard to see the Eagles offense keeping up, but the Chiefs trends over the last 10 games are pretty damning.

In the end, I trust the Chiefs to win this game. I'm not sure they'll cover, though, because they never seem to and the defense is just so bad. I trust in the Chiefs offense being good enough and the Eagles attack not keeping up.

There's not much value in the moneyline, but at -7, this is the perfect spot to put the Chiefs into a teaser — that would mean we basically just need the win, so line Kansas City up with another Sunday pick you like and play them that way.

I also won't be afraid to bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs in-game if they fall behind — give me Mahomes down 7-10 points on anything near even odds on a moneyline with at least 20 minutes left, and I like my chances. The Chiefs will find a way to win this game. I'm willing to bet on that.

Pick: Tease Chiefs from -7 to -1

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