After a perfect 6-0 week for sides teased through 3 and 7, I received many questions pertaining to the teasers rules that I follow.
Well, with another betting card full of potentially ideal teaser options, I figured it's a perfect time to revisit my basic teaser guide and update the historical numbers for those unfamiliar or for those that just need a quick refresher — you can read that in full here.
Below, I'll focus on the teams worth exploring for potential teasers in Week 4 in addition to the two I bet.
Week 4 NFL Teaser Options
It's a great teaser week on paper for bettors. As of this moment, nine potential games feature a team that you can tease through 3 and 7.
I've ranked those teams below based on my personal criteria and discrepancy between the current market line and my projected line:
- Colts +7.5 (from +1.5)
- Vikings +7.5 (from +1.5)
- Seahawks +8.5 (from +2.5)
- Lions +8.5 (from +2.5)
- Saints -1.5 (from -7.5)
- Falcons +7.5 (from +1.5)
- Titans -1.5 (from -7.5)
- Chiefs -1.5 (from -7.5)
Also, keep your eye on the Ravens-Broncos spread, which has bounced all over the place this week (compare real-time NFL odds here). Teasing either one of those teams over a touchdown in a game with such a low total is certainly appealing.
The Saints have a very low total and fit the mold, but trusting Jameis Winston as a favorite is a risky proposition even though the Giants' injury situation looks pretty dire.
Will the Chiefs really lose three games in a row? It seems unlikely, but their matchup against the Eagles features a very high total and I don't trust Kansas City's defense (32nd in Football Outsiders' DVOA) right now. And believe it or not, the Chiefs are 0-10 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games when favored by more than a field goal.
Plus, I bet the Eagles at +7.5 since I project that spread close to +5. That same logic applies to the Titans.
I personally fancy the Bears at under a field goal, so I won't be teasing the Lions. However, Detroit does fit the criteria in a game with a very low total.
The Falcons also warrant consideration, but I'm not sure I trust that team right now after digging into their underlying metrics. From a DVOA perspective, Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL. That includes the worst offense in the league and 30th ranked defense. Yikes.
If you're reading this prior to Thursday Night Football, I like getting the Bengals under a field goal on a Thursday night — when home favorites have performed well — against a Jaguars team that has lost 18 straight overall. While Trevor Lawrence looked better last week, a road game on a short week is not an ideal scenario for a rookie. (And for what it's worth, rookies are 0-9 ATS so far this season in games in which they don't face each other.)
The Bengals also match-up fairly well on both sides of the ball. Their run defense has thrived through three games, and Joe Burrow should exploit a very vulnerable defense that struggles in coverage and in generating pressure.
I personally paired the Bengals with the Seahawks despite a very high total in that game.
Russell Wilson, who owns a 23-9-2 (71.9%) career ATS record as an underdog, should cook against a beat-up 49ers secondary. Russ also rarely gets blown out — he's actually covered the 6-point tease in 32 of those 34 games as an underdog. And even more impressive, he's a perfect 15-0 when teased as an underdog of 1-3 points.
Wilson can also easily sneak in the backdoor here if needed and Seattle has a reliable kicker. A desperate Seahawks team should keep this within one possession without flukes.
Week 4 NFL Teaser To Bet
Colts +7.5 & Vikings +8.5
Getting the Colts at over a touchdown against a limited Dolphins offense in a game with a minuscule over/under of 43? No-brainer in my opinion. And while the Vikings play the Browns in a game with a higher total of 51, there's already some value in that line, which is another factor to consider (if you have your own projections) when choosing teaser legs.
In a game I project as a true coin flip, I have no hesitation getting Minnesota over a touchdown at home. Remember the Vikings could easily be 3-0 with wins over the Cardinals, Bengals and Seahawks if not for a controversial fumble in overtime and missed chip shot field goal.
Kirk Cousins is playing at an extremely high level right now. Plus, an almost entirely brand new defense should continue to improve each week under the tutelage of head coach Mike Zimmer. We saw a bit of that in the second half against the Seahawks last week.
Getting over 8 is more valuable than ever since teams go for two more often in situations they haven't previously. Specifically, when they score a touchdown trailing by 14 points late in order to increase their win probability in regulation. That puts a game that normally would've fallen 7 at either 6 or 8.
