Chris Moore
Under 2.5 Receptions (-125 at BetMGM)
Moore has served as the Titans' No. 3 wide receiver with Treylon Burks (knee) out but could see his snaps cut into by Kyle Philips, a more natural slot receiver who was just activated off IR.
Despite drawing three targets in each of the past two games, Moore has still failed to go over 2.5 receptions. His average depth of target is 25.5, which lowers his expected catch rate and raises his expected yards per reception, which is why I would prefer to target his receptions prop rather than his yardage prop.
Bet to: Under 1.5 (-120)
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DeVante Parker
Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at Parx)
Parker has failed to top 33 yards in 10 of his 16 games as a Patriot, also failing to top 24 yards in over half of his games with New England.
Parker posted 57 yards in his season debut in Week 2 against the Dolphins, but just 52 yards combined in Weeks 3-4 as defenses increased their rate of man coverage against New England. Both Saints premier corners are playing well, with four-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore on one side and Isaac Yiadom earning the No. 2 PFF coverage grade (90.0) among 111 qualified corners on the other.
Bet to: 30.5
Alexander Mattison
Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Mattison has failed to top 11 receiving yards in three of four games, and his receiving prospects are even lower for this game.
With Cam Akers active for the first time last week, Mattison logged a season-low 43% route participation rate. Akers mixed in for 29% of the routes – much higher than former No. 2 back Ty Chandler’s 12% mark in the first three games.
Mattison has struggled to turn his targets into yardage this season, averaging 4.67 yards per reception and 3.11 yards per target, so it would not be a surprise to see his role in the passing game continue to dwindle.
On top of that, the Chiefs defense has been one of the least generous matchups for receiving yardage out of the backfield. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is allowing just 17.8 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, sixth-fewest. Much of it has to do with Kansas City ranking fifth in blitz rate (35.0%) and third in pressure rate (29.9%), per Pro Football Reference, which forces opposing RBs to stay in and block.
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