It was a tough week in Survivor Pools as the extremely chalky Packers were able to survive the Patriots in overtime. Also, my pick – the Pittsburgh Steelers – weren't able to survive a Jets comeback in the 4th quarter and were defeated.
C'est la vie.
In most years, it's a coin flip whether or not you make it to Week 5 and this year has been even more chaotic than usual.
But even though I may not be cashing in my pools this year, I will trudge forward and continue to analyze each week to help you win yours.
Here are the projected win percentages for Week 5 and the rest of the season:
The Bills are the biggest favorite on the board this week and are projected to be the most popular play. Any time a team is a 14=point favorite, people are going to gravitate towards them.
The question is whether they are too popular to take. Using the EV Calculator at Pool Genius, I am able to quickly see how the Bills stack up against other options in Week 5.
Here are the top 10 picks in terms of expected value this week:
Even with their popularity the Bills check in at third and with a positive expected value. In smaller pools or contests where a lot of your opponents have already used Buffalo, I think the Bills are a fine play.
Working our way up from there, the Buccaneers are the second best option as they face the Falcons at home. However, if you scroll back up to the schedule above you will see Tampa Bay has one of the easiest schedules remaining.
Continuing up the board leads us to the Chiefs, who are in the top spot this week, and they are in that spot deservedly.
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (vs Las Vegas Raiders)
It's not often that you get one of the top teams in the league as a touchdown favorite at home and only 5% of people are projected to take them.
While the Bills are more likely to win this week, I think it's much more likely you will need Buffalo later in the season during the bye weeks when options become scarce.
Roll with the Chiefs if you have them available.
