NFL betting analyst Raheem Palmer breaks down his favorite Week 6 bets below, featuring the Browns,Ravens, and Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team.
Week 6 NFL Bets
Cleveland Browns -3 at [DraftKings]
The Cleveland Browns are in the perfect position to knock off the league's last undefeated team in the 5-0 ArizonaCardinals this week.
The Cardinals have one of the league's worst run defenses, ranking 27th in Rushing Success Rate, 31st in yards per carry (5.4) and 28th in rushing yards per game (139). They're coming off a game against the San Francisco 49ers in which they allowed 154 yards on 5.4 yards per carry.
The Cardinals were out-gained in yardage (338-304) and yards per play (5.7-5.1) against the Niners and were fortunate to win, thanks largely to San Francisco going 1-of-5 on fourth down, including a stop at the goal line and multiple stops inside of Cardinals territory.
The Cardinals might not be so lucky this week against a Browns offense that leads the league in rushing with 187.6 rushing yards per game, even though Cleveland is going to be without Nick Chubb due to a calf injury.
The Browns are first in rushing EPA/play and fourth in Rushing Success Rate, so I expect Cleveland to gash the Cardinals on the ground just as the Vikings did in their Week 2 loss. In that game the Vikings rushed for 177 yards on 6.6 yards per carry against Arizona with a 48% rushing success rate on early downs. Given the Browns use of play-action with Baker Mayfield, that should also open up explosive plays through the air.
The Cardinals will also be missing head coach Kliff Kingsburry and star linebacker Chandler Jones, both who tested positive for COVID-19. Jones has five sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery this season, so this is a huge loss for the Cardinals against this Browns offense.
Kyler Murray is dealing with a right shoulder injury, and we saw how the second half of last season was derailed after he dealt with something similar. With there being a chance of 18-mph winds, we could see this explosive Cardinals offense suppressed by the weather.
Overall, this is a good spot to back the Browns to knock off the NFL's last undefeated team.
Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans Over 42.5 at [FanDuel]
My model makes this game 47, and I'm struggling to see how this total can be this low with the Indianapolis Colts laying 10 in this matchup. The Colts are coming off one of their best offensive performances of the season in their 25-31 loss against the Baltimore Ravens, and I expect the Colts to score at will in this matchup as they're playing a Houston Texans defense that is giving up 28.2 points per game and ranks 29th in Defensive Success Rate and 23rd in EPA/play.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts are dealing with cluster injuries in the secondary with Xavier Rhodes questionable and Safety Andrew Sendejo ruled out for this matchup. With cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and safety Khari Willis getting banged up in Monday night's loss against the Ravens, I expect the Texans to do their part in helping push this total over 42.5.
Denver Broncos 1H -2.5 at [BetRivers]
The Las Vegas Raiders have lost every single first half this season and now they'll be taking on a divisional opponent desperate for a win in the Denver Broncos. In addition, Jon Gruden was responsible for calling the plays in this offense, and I'm not sure Rich Bisaccia will be successful taking over on a short week. I'll back the Broncos in this spot.
Chiefs/Washington Football Team Over 54.5 at [William Hill]
My projections make this game 57.5, so at 54.5 there's a ton of value. While the Kansas City Chiefs are just 2-3 on the season, Patrick Mahomes leads an offense that is first in Offensive Efficiency and Success Rate (55.2%) and second in EPA/play while scoring 30.8 points per game. While this team struggled to score in the second half against the Buffalo Bills who are first in Defensive Efficiency, the Washington Football Team presents an ideal matchup.
Although Washington was thought to have an elite defense coming into this season, it's just 28th in Defensive Efficiency, 29th against the pass and ninth against the run, allowing 31 points per game, second only behind the Kansas Chiefs. We have a matchup between two bad defenses and one elite offense, so we should see a ton of fireworks here.
We know the Chiefs will have no problems scoring, but they will also give up a ton of points behind a defense that is dead last in Defensive Efficiency, EPA/play and Success Rate. This Chiefs defense is historically bad, so I'm expecting Taylor Heinicke and this Washington offense to do their part, pushing this game over, even in the absence of Curtis Samuel and possibly Terry McLaurin who is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Two Team 6-Point Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -0.5/Green Bay Packers PK (-120)
Kansas City Chiefs
As I've broken down previously, this Chiefs offense is historically great. Although their defense can't stop anyone, their offense should more than overcome this against the Washington Football Team whose defense is equally as bad without a dominant offense. Look for the Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to move to 3-3 on the year.
Green Bay Packers
This line has moved up from 4.5 to six which allows us to tease this without crossing through the zero. When you consider the success the Green Bay Packers have had against the Chicago Bears during Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers' tenures, it's tough to not back the Packers in this spot. Since joining the Packers as head coach, LaFleur is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) versus the Bears, and Aaron Rodgers is 21-4 straight-up (SU).
Trends aside, I'm not seeing how the Bears keep up in this matchup. Justin Fields hasn't been asked to do much for a Bears offense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA, 30th in EPA/play, 27th in Success Rate and 21st in Early Down Success Rate. Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards in last week's 20-9 win against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Although 4.2 yards per play is enough to defeat the Raiders, who probably were ill-prepared in light of the controversy surrounding Jon Gruden, it won't be enough here against Rodgers and a Packers team that is 10th in Football Outsiders DVOA and third in EPA/play and 10th in Success Rate if you remove their 38-3 loss in Week 1 to the New Orleans Saints. I'll back the Packers on a teaser to win this game.
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-105) at [PointsBet]
I faded the Los Angeles Chargers last week, as I thought the Cleveland Browns had major advantages with their ability to run the ball. The Chargers defense is dead last in rushing yards per game (157.6) and yards per rush (5.6), while allowing a 50% Rushing Success Rate on the ground.
Cleveland ran for 230 yards on 6.6 yards per rush and was equally effective through the air with Baker Mayfield throwing for 305 yards and two touchdowns on 9.1 yards per pass. While it didn't work out for us backing the Browns, that was a game in which they held a 14-point, second-half lead before Justin Herbert and the Chargers were able to mount a comeback.
After three straight games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, the Chargers now fly east to deal with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson is playing like an MVP candidate, and given his dual-threat ability, I have trouble believing this struggling Chargers defense has any chance of slowing him down.
The Chargers are making their living on third and fourth downs, ranking 22nd in early down success rate, while converting third downs 10.9% over expectation. Eventually, this will regress to the mean.
Even more incredible is how historically great the Chargers are on fourth downs this season, going 8-for-8 with seven of those drives ending with a touchdown. At some point, regression has to kick in, and I'm betting it starts here.
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at [PointsBet]
There's a reason we saw this number go across zero to have the Minnesota Vikings become the favorite after the Carolina Panthers initially opened as a one-point favorite.
The great Jay-Z once rapped, "it's only so long fake thugs can pretend," and there's no better lyric to describe Sam Darnold, who is starting to resemble the quarterback we all knew he was during his tenure with the New YorkJets. He has thrown five interceptions in the last two games after just one in his first two in 2021.
The biggest issue for the Panthers is their offensive line, which is struggling to protect Darnold. He was pressured on 43% of his drop backs against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Panthers are 31st in ESPN's pass block win rate and 29th in run block win rate, so if this team can't protect Darnold and he's inaccurate while giving the ball away, this offense is in trouble.
Christian McCaffrey was ruled out on Friday, so it's tough to see how this Panthers offense gets better.
As we saw the last two weeks, this defense has come back to earth, as well. After playing the two rookie quarterbacks in Davis Mills and Zach Wilson, as well as a Saints team dealing with COVID-19 issues, the Panthers have been carved up by the Cowboys and Eagles over the past two weeks. I'm expecting the same from Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and the Minnesota Vikings.
