NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Week 7 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are five props with a Bet Quality of at least 9 for Sunday's main slate. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 238-139-7 (62.1% win rate).
All odds as of Sunday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Seahawks TE Luke Willson
- The Opponent: Ravens (4:25 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Willson inherits a productive Seattle tight end role vacated by the season-ending injury to Will Dissly (Achilles). At 6-foot-5, 252 pounds, with 4.56 speed, Willson has a chance for quality TE1 production with quarterback Russell Wilson throwing him the ball.
Over the first five weeks, Dissly had received 26 targets, second-most among all Seattle pass catchers. Baltimore's addition of cornerback Marcus Peters provides a strong pairing with teammate Marlon Humphrey that will likely limit the production of Seahawks receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
Willson should be able to see enough target volume to generate 20 or more receiving yards, a total Dissly had eclipsed in four consecutive weeks.
Seahawks RB Chris Carson
- The Opponent: Ravens (4:25 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (+106)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
I was excited to be getting plus-money odds for a receiving prop Carson barely broke last week even with Rashad Penny inactive.
Our FantasyLabs props tool projects Carson at just 20 receiving yards, 23% below his implied total.
The Ravens have been stout against opposing running backs, allowing only 26 receptions in six games (eighth-best). Baltimore also ranks eighth-best in receiving yards allowed to running backs, with opponents averaging just 36.8 yards per game.
While Carson's usage in the passing game has increased of late, expect Penny to be active and for backup C.J. Prosise to have an increasing role, which should help Carson to fall short of the receiving mark on this 10-rated prop bet.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
- The Opponent: Packers (1 p.m. ET)
- THE PICK: Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Josh Jacobs has been the center of the Oakland offense this season. With wide receiver Tyrell Williams out against the Packers with a foot injury, Week 7 could be the highest opportunity share of Jacobs' rookie season.
Jacobs has totaled more than 10 yards in each of the past two games, which includes an average of 24.5 receiving yards. Green Bay has allowed the 10th-most receptions to opposing running backs, including four catches and 49 yards to Denver satellite back Phillip Lindsay, and 28 receiving yards and a touchdown to Eagles' stationary plodder Jordan Howard.
The 47-point low over/under in this game favors scoring by both teams, and Jacobs will be the primary weapon for Oakland.
We project Jacobs at 16.4 receiving yards.
Rams QB Jared Goff
- The Opponent: Falcons (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-167)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Through the first six weeks, passing TD over props at a quality of 9 or higher have hit at a 58% (22-12-4) rate.
The Falcons have struggled all season to stop opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 24.6 fantasy points per game, the most of any NFL team. They are also one of only two teams that have allowed 15 or more passing touchdowns through the first six weeks. That is an average of 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Both teams have a projected team total of 25.5 points or more, hinting at a likely shootout between two bad defenses.
Goff has struggled mightily this season, but usually as a result of pressure. He ranks 29th among all quarterbacks with a 25.6% completion percentage when pressured (PlayerProfiler). Goff should have a clean pocket against an Atlanta team that ranks last in sacks and 26th in quarterbacks hits.
We project Goff at 2.1 passing touchdowns, 20% over the implied total of 1.8. I would bet this prop up to -180.
49ers WR Dante Pettis
- The Opponent: Redskins (1 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (-162)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
Dante Pettis has gradually taken a larger role in the San Francisco passing attack. Per PlayerProfiler, his snap share has grown over the last three games from 37.5% to 74.3%. Pettis saw a season-high in targets (six), receptions (three), and receiving yards (45) in San Francisco's Week 6 win at Los Angeles.
Washington has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and head coach Mike Shanahan certainly has motivation for this game. Both he and his father were fired by Washington in 2013.
Shanahan has preached the importance of Pettis to the offense all offseason, and will likely look to get his best all-around receiver involved early.
We project Pettis for 3.2 receptions, which is 16% more than his implied total.
