Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered five NFL trends I like for Week 9.
Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Texans -2 vs. Jaguars (in London)
The Texans barely escaped with a 13-12 victory over the Jaguars in Week 2, and that game was at home.
This week, they are on the road and without All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt (pectoral), who suffered a season-ending injury last week.
But I am still on the Texans. I consider the Jags to be a mediocre team, and there seems to be something about the London game that exacerbates the problems lesser teams have. Maybe it's the logistics of travel and playing in a foreign place.
Since the NFL International Series started in 2007, the London favorites are 18-9 against the spread, good for a 30.7% return on investment. And regular-season favorites on a neutral field are 27-12-2 ATS (33.6% ROI).
But the Texans and Jags are divisional rivals, which impacts the dynamics between the two teams.
How have favorites done in divisional neutral-field games? 9-1 ATS (73.9% ROI).
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Seahawks -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
The home-field advantage the Seahawks have at CenturyLink Field with the famed “12th Man” is legitimate.
Under head coach Pete Carroll (since 2010), the Seahawks have scored 7.5 points more than their opponents at home. They rank third in the NFL with that differential, trailing only the Tom Brady-led Patriots in Foxborough and Aaron Rodgers-led Packers at Lambeau over that time.
Defensively, the Seahawks are a handful at home. In the Carroll era, they are No. 3 with just 18.8 points per game allowed. Only the hard-nosed Ravens and Bill Belichick-disciplined Pats have held visitors to fewer points.
And they are also significantly better at CenturyLink on offense. On the road, they have averaged 21.7 points per game. At home, 26.4. That home/road offensive differential of +4.7 points is No. 3 in the league.
With Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 46-33-3 ATS (13.7% ROI).
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
To see the bets I’m making for Week 9, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my card into the weekend.
