While perusing Super Bowl odds and novelty props, you may have stumbled across a market that lists something along the lines of "will there be an octopus?"
Which begs the question: What is an octopus bet for Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and Chiefs?
An octopus occurs when the same player who scores a touchdown scores the ensuing two-point conversion. The person must score via rushing or receiving touchdown — you don't earn an octopus by throwing it in both tries.
It's a rare occurrence, which stands to reason why the term isn't commonly known.
The octopus has happened only 188 times since the two-point conversion was enacted in 1994.
And until last year, it had never occurred in the Super Bowl. That was until Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts rushed for a TD and two-point conversion to tie the game up at 35 late in the game.
Octopus tickets as long as +1400 cashed because of Hurts' dash.
Will There Be An Octopus for 49ers vs. Chiefs?
Odds are according to BetRivers.
Betting odds of +1150 imply a probability of 8%. That's the break-even point — if you believe there's better than an 8% chance that an octopus will take place, then this bet offers value.
At a rudimentary level, here's a crack at the odds.
The raw odds for an octopus taking place in any given game are about 2.25%. There have been about 8,350 NFL games since 1994 and only 188 octopuses.
Only two of the major players in this game have registered one: Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. Each have only done so once.
With betting odds at +1150, you're paying a roughly 5.75% premium on the "yes" market given that historical average.
On the "no" side, odds at -3335 have an implied probability of 97.1%. The theoretical probability is 97.75%, meaning you're losing about 0.65% in edge the second you place your "no" bet, too.
Out of all games to pull trigger on this prop, this might be the day to do so. It's the only time an octopus prop is offered for any game. But before you do so, responsibly consider edges and implied probabilities before ripping blindly on this wager.
