Drake Maye has been named the new starting quarterback for the Patriots and will look to continue a betting trend that has seen rookie quarterbacks be profitable bets so far this season.
Rookie quarterbacks are 12-3 against the spread (ATS) and 10-5 straight up this season, according to data from our guru Evan Abrams. A $1,000 per game bettor on the spread would be up over $7,900 by blindly betting on rookie quarterbacks and their spreads.
The 10 wins overall are the most in history, only trailing the 1987 rookie class.
Starting with Commanders vs. Bengals on Monday Night Football — Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels' coming out game — rookie quarterbacks have covered and won seven straight games.
For reference, last season, rookie quarterbacks were 3-8-1 through Week 4 and 5-9-1 through Week 5.
Maye will replace Jacoby Brissett, who served as a stopgap for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Brissett ranked rather poorly among eligible starting quarterbacks as he's been the fourth-worst quarterback in the NFL at EPA/play + CPOE among those who have taken at least 100 snaps. EPA/play + CPOE (expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected) is the best single-use advanced metrics for quarterbacks.
On top of that, Brissett has been the recipient of a myriad of injuries behind a shaky offensive line, which is not exactly the type of situation you want to throw your rookie quarterback into.
But after a sad showing against the Dolphins last week, the Patriots decided it was time to make a change.
