The Chiefs offense has changed drastically in recent years, but it might have found its new big-play threat for years to come in Xavier Worthy.
Worthy’s production has ramped up over the second half of the season, but his speed and playmaking ability has been on display since he scored two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Ravens.
Let’s break down how we should bet on the impressive rookie in Super Bowl 59.
Xavier Worthy Player Props
Check out Sean Koerner’s projections for Worthy against the Eagles below, where you’ll see one edge that will make up half of our parlay.
| Market | Total (Odds) | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Attempts | 1.5 (-105 / -118) | 1.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 6.5 (-111 / -110) | 6.5 |
| Receptions | 5.5 (+105 / -131) | 4.8 |
| Receiving Yards | 57.5 (-110 / -111) | 52.8 |
Prediction
By Nick Giffen
Worthy has been a focal point of the Chiefs offense, especially in the playoffs with 13 targets and three rush attempts in the Chiefs' two wins. That includes six red-zone touches in the form of five targets and one carry.
However, Worthy gets a difficult matchup against an Eagles secondary that has been one of the best in the NFL, especially in preventing targets and catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Only the Texans have allowed a lower catch percentage to opposing wideouts. Despite the Eagles' stellar record and playing 67.5% of their defensive snaps with the lead, they've allowed a bottom-half rate of receptions to opposing receivers.
Specific to Worthy, in the current rotation with Hollywood Brown back in the fold, Worthy has lined up out wide nearly half the time and in the slot, inline, or in the backfield the other half.
When Worthy lines up out wide, it's been with a slight lean to the offensive left side (26% left vs. 21% right). There, he'd line up against standout Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell, who's allowed the lowest target rate on the team while limiting opposing receivers to a sub-55% catch rate.
Worthy's catch rate this year is 63% when we include the playoffs, but based on his expected matchups I'm projecting his catch rate closer to 59% on just under 8.5 targets. That means I project his receptions with plenty of value under 5.5 receptions. The best line on that bet is -131 at DraftKings.
However, I also show value on his anytime touchdown scorer odds at +165 thanks to both his rushing and receiving ability and red-zone volume. Especially in this matchup, Worthy may line up in multiple places in the red zone where he'd avoid the Eagles' trio of stud CBs in Mitchell, Darius Slay and fellow rookie Cooper DeJean.
With that, it makes a lot of sense to parlay the two knowing we'll get a negative correlation odds boost.
Since I show value on both individual bets and we're getting the inverse-correlation boost, this was my first Super Bowlprop bet for one-half unit.
