2024 Men's Olympic Golf Predictions & Course Preview
We didn’t have any bets to sweat last weekend at the 3M Open in Minnesota as Keith Mitchell, J.T. Poston, Ben Griffin and Tom Hoge weren’t anywhere near the top of the leaderboard. I had noticed the impressive ball-striking numbers for Jhonattan Vegas over the last few months but didn’t think he could make enough putts to win in a birdie-fest.
Nonetheless, he did just that and walked away with his fourth career win on the PGA Tour. Unfortunately he is not in the field this week at the Paris Olympic Games.
The Men's Olympic Golf Competition starts on Thursday morning at 3 a.m. ET, and there is no official PGA Tour tournament this week. The Olympic Golf Competition will be held at Le Golf National in Paris, France, with the men playing this weekend and the women playing next weekend.
We would typically expect a new course to be played at an event like this, but this course has hosted many DP World Tour events and the 2018 Ryder Cup, so we at least have some knowledge about the course.
Le Golf National is a Par-71 that measures 7,174 yards. This has routinely played as one of the five toughest courses on the DP World Tour, largely due to the narrow fairways, the thick rough and the water hazards that come into play on 10 of the 18 holes. We do have a condensed field this week, as only 60 golfers will tee it up in Paris. All golfers are guaranteed to play all four rounds, barring any withdrawals.
There have been a mix of winners at this venue over the years, but there is a constant theme in player interviews – this is not a course that can be overpowered off the tee. Golfers will need to keep the ball in the fairway and be precise with their approach shots if they want any chance of securing a medal for their respective countries. Given the uniqueness of the event, I’m going with a smaller betting card this week.
Find my 2024 Men's Olympic Golf Predictions below.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -100
- Current bankroll: $420
2024 Olympic Golf Predictions
Jon Rahm
Outright +1000 | Top 5 +190
$15 to pay $165 | $20 to pay $58
Jon Rahm hasn’t had the year that he was hoping for, but he seems to have found something in his game over the last few weeks. After tying for seventh at The Open Championship — which was by far his best finish in a major this season — he followed that up with his first win on LIV Golf at LIV UK.
He has strung together so many high finishes over the years, and he’s clearly playing with more confidence than he has all year.
It’s always hard to gauge the motivation of the top golfers when it comes to events like the Olympics, but Rahm has no shortage of motivation. While three of the elite golfers won major championships this season, last year's green jacket winner can prove he’s still one of the best in the world if he wins the gold medal this week.
His game is trending in the right direction, he has more motivation than most, and he has played this course in a stroke-play tournament when he tied for 10th and fifth here in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
Collin Morikawa
Outright +1100 | Top 5 +190
$15 to pay $180 | $20 to pay $58
Collin Morikawa is having one of his most consistent seasons on the PGA Tour, yet he doesn’t have a win to show for it. He has rattled off 10 straight top-16 finishes, which puts him up there with the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele in terms of consistency.
For whatever reason, he hasn’t broken through with a win this year. I get the feeling it’s coming sooner rather than later, and this week’s course is a perfect fit for him because he’s one of the most accurate drivers and one of the best iron players in the field.
He’s also figured out something with the short game, as he has gained strokes on and around the greens in each of his last six events. In terms of both Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Around the Green, he is having the best season of his career.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Top 5 +1000 | Top 10 +360
$15 to pay $165 | $15 to pay $69
C-Bez is coming off back-to-back missed cuts at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, which is why his odds are so high. If we ignore those results and look at his prior form, he’s been having a great year.
I have always said that if you put Bezuidenhout in the middle of the fairway with everyone else on Tour, he might be a top-10 player in the world. He’s an excellent iron player and has one of the best short games around.
His problem is always off the tee, but perhaps a less-than-driver course like Le Golf National will be to his liking. If he can club down and hit fairways this week, he’ll have an excellent chance of posting a high-end finish.
