With the men’s Olympic Golf Gold having just been handed to Scottie Scheffler, we can now turn our attention to the women’s side of the event. This event will start this Thursday, on the same Golf National track—and a lot of what you read last week holds true.
Driving accuracy will be important; greens in regulation will be essential; around the green game doesn’t matter as much, but three-putt avoidance will be key.
As for the field, we are once again looking at 60 golfers, with a wide spread of representation by country. The U.S. once again leads the field with three golfers—and all three are among the favorites.
Nelly Korda (USA) will enter yet another big tournament as the favorite, coming in around +500 at most books. Atthaya Thitikul (THA) and Lilia Vu (USA) are the two other golfers under 10:1, each checking in around +900.
To a certain degree, it makes sense that Nelly is the favorite—she is the reigning Gold Medal winner, having won in 2021 at Kasumigaseki Country Club. She has also been putting together a crazy 2024 season, in which she won five straight events this spring, tying an LPGA record.
However, if we split her season into two sections, a very stark trend becomes clear.
Here are her results through May 20: T16, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, T7, 1
Here are her results since: MC, MC, MC, T26
The best result is the most recent (and that was another tournament in France—the Evian), but the split is so stark. She really has been struggling since her historic run, and the odds just don’t quite reflect that.
I’m also lower on the second-favorite in this tournament—someone I’m actually typically VERY high on—Atthaya Thitikul. As noted, accuracy is of the utmost importance at Le Golf National, and of the favorites in this tournament, Thitikul is by far the least accurate off the tee.
Since I’m lower on the top two, that naturally gives us plenty of good looks for this week, and I have three golfers in the second tier who I really like, as well as one longshot. Let's dive into my 2024 Olympics Women's Golf Betting Preview for this weekend.
2024 Olympics Women's Golf Picks & Predictions
Jin Young Ko — South Korea (+1500, Caesars)
Ko comes into the Olympics as the consensus fourth-favorite, right below the names listed above, but I would have her on par with that group, in large part because of how well she fits this course.
She’s accurate off the tee; her iron play is among the best in the sport; and she is a very solid lag putter. She’s been knocking on the door this season, with plenty of results, but no wins. That could very well change next Sunday.
But even more so with JYK, I love her in matchups against Thitikul and/or Korda if we get them this week. Her floor is incredibly high, and I’ll also be playing her to medal and top 10 when we get those markets as well.
Miyu Yamashita — Japan (+1800, bet365)
This 22-year-old has been dominating the JLPGA the last few years, and has been making her way over to the LPGA this season. She won the JLPGA Golfer of the Year in both 2022 and 2023, racking up the most money on tour both those years.
She has an elite record in LPGA events too, taking a T13 in the AIG Women’s Open as a 20-year-old in her first Major. This season she has played all four majors and has a runner-up along with a T12, a T17, and a T39. Both her floor and ceiling are very strong.
She’s also another perfect course fit. Among players with at least a dozen LPGA rounds this year, she has the highest driving accuracy, hitting over 85% of fairways. She backs that up with a solid set of irons and a decent putter, making her a perfect fit for Le Golf National.
I’ll be taking the same approach with her as Ko, looking for head-to-heads, to medal, and top 10.
Rose Zhang — USA (+1800, DraftKings)
Ranked the third of three U.S. participants by odds, Rose is actually my favorite American play for these Olympics. For one, she is one of the only golfers in the field with any experience at Le Golf National. She played this course just two years ago as part of the Women’s World Amatuer Team event, where she took the top spot in the individual side of things.
Unlike Ko and Yamashita, though, I’ll be focused on Rose’s ceiling. That’s because, although she is another one who fits the course well (accurate off the tee and truly elite with the irons), her putter can vacillate wildly. And vacillate may be generous, it’s often just her worst club in the bag. BUT when the putter is clicking, she’s basically unbeatable.
If you sort her events by strokes gained putting, there’s a very clearly corollary between a good putter and success for Rose—even more so than the standard golfer because she is so consistent elsewhere.
As such, my lone bet for Rose will be to win gold at +1800.
Pei-Yun Chien — China (+21000, bet365)
We only have winning odds out, so that number looks absurd, but I’ll be looking to play Chien a variety of ways this week. I’ve mentioned time and time again this preview wanting to prioritize accuracy off the tee, great iron play, and solid lag putting. Chien checks the first two boxes perfectly, and once again I am most flexible on the putter.
Chien isn’t a buzzy, young player like Yamashita. Instead, she’s a 33-year-old LPGA tour veteran who is not flashy at all. But she’s playing very good golf this year, and just finished with a T7 at the Evian Championship here in France just a month ago.
She’s my favorite longshot to medal and top 10, and I’ll be looking to see if we get her in any matchups as well.
Head-to-Head Matchup Notes
As far as targeting matchups, I’ll be targeting Ruoning Yin (solid course fit) and Celine Boutier (same, and also with home country advantage) especially if I can get them against any of: Yuka Saso (inaccurate off tee and poor irons), Leona Maguie (poor course fit), and Lydia Ko (poor course fit).
The two former are listed at shorter odds, so will likely be juiced, but I’ll potentially be willing to pay the juice depending on the specific combination.
