The day is upon us with Team USA taking the floor in the preliminary round of the 2024 Paris Olympics as LeBron James, Steph Curry, and company take on Serbia in an 11:15 a.m. ET tip off.
But first South Sudan and Puerto Rico face off in an early 5 a.m. ET matchup as Group C will be the talk of Sunday's men's basketball tournament action.
Our experts had a plethora of picks and takes on what's ahead for Sunday, July 28 so get a look into their best bets!
Men's Basketball Preliminary Round Picks | Sunday, July 28
| Time (ET) | Men's Basketball Preliminary Round Best Bets |
|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | |
| 5 a.m. | |
| 5 a.m. | |
| 5 a.m. | |
| 11:15 a.m. | |
| 11:15 a.m. | |
| 11:15 a.m. | |
| 11:15 a.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. | |
South Sudan vs. Puerto Rico — 5 a.m. ET
Puerto Rico opened as -3.5-point favorites.
South Sudan is now favored by -1.5 after nearly upsetting Team USA in a scrimmage.
This is an overreaction to an exhibition game. South Sudan is really good, Khaman Maluach is going to be a lottery pick — in all likelihood — Royal Ivey will be an NBA head coach someday, and South Sudan proved in the World Cup that they're the best team in Africa right now, taking the mantle from Nigeria, who actually beat Team USA in an exhibition game before the 2020 Olympics before losing all three of their Olympic games.
Puerto Rico is now being underrated by the public after beating both Italy and Lithuania by 11 points each in their Olympic qualifying tournament, as well as a 20-point drubbing over Mexico.
Puerto Rico also beat South Sudan to open last year's World Cup in overtime despite having a less roster than the one they're bringing to the Olympics. For example, they now have Jose Alvarado, Davon Reed and Gian Clavell — all of whom will play big minutes in a standard PR game.
I'd project a close game, and as I've been saying on all our platforms — this is closer to March Madness than the NBA Playoffs, so a five-point swing seems a bit much. But hey, we'll see.
Pick: Puerto Rico Moneyline (Bet365)
South Sudan vs. Puerto Rico — 5 a.m. ET
By Alex Hinton
Puerto Rico opened as -3.5-point favorites.
South Sudan is now favored by -1.5 after nearly upsetting Team USA in a scrimmage.
This is an overreaction to an exhibition game. South Sudan is really good, Khaman Maluach is going to be a lottery pick — in all likelihood — Royal Ivey will be an NBA head coach someday, and South Sudan proved in the World Cup that they're the best team in Africa right now, taking the mantle from Nigeria, who actually beat Team USA in an exhibition game before the 2020 Olympics before losing all three of their Olympic games.
Puerto Rico is now being underrated by the public after beating both Italy and Lithuania by 11 points each in their Olympic qualifying tournament, as well as a 20-point drubbing over Mexico.
Puerto Rico also beat South Sudan to open last year's World Cup in overtime despite having a less roster than the one they're bringing to the Olympics. For example, they now have Jose Alvarado, Davon Reed and Gian Clavell — all of whom will play big minutes in a standard PR game.
I'd project a close game, and as I've been saying on all our platforms — this is closer to March Madness than the NBA Playoffs, so a five-point swing seems a bit much. But hey, we'll see.
Pick: JT Thor Over 9.5 Points (-125) (DraftKings)
South Sudan vs. Puerto Rico — 5 a.m. ET
This is a good plus money swing.
Waters can't really be listed at 1.5 or 3.5 and at 2.5, you're getting good value.
South Sudan's athleticism drove Puerto Rico into overtime during the World Cup opener in 2023, but the Boricuas were able to win in an effort that included a 5-of-10 shooting display for Waters from three, while he also went 0-for-7 from 2. He finished with a team-high 20 points, and was only efficient from beyond the arc.
Jose Alvarado — also plus money at the same number — will probably be searching for similar results. I expect Waters to be around 7 or 8 attempts from three at least, so this is also a volume play.
Pick: Tremont Waters Over 2.5 Threes (DraftKings)
South Sudan vs. Puerto Rico — 5 a.m. ET
Carlik Jones is really who killed Puerto Rico in the World Cup last year.
He went 3-for-8 from three as part of a 35-point, 12-assist out of body effort.
I just think this number is too low and would take him to go over even on a modest amount of attempts (say five-ish).
South Sudan dragged PR to overtime in the World Cup last year, but even in regulation, Jones was already 2-for-5 from deep. I just think this game will be similarly tight. And that Jones will attempt to shoot over PR's defensive pressure and quick hands.
Pick: Carlik Jones Over 1.5 Threes (DraftKings)
Serbia vs. United States — 11:15 a.m. ET
The United States takes on Serbia for their first game and Steph Curry should dominate from beyond the arc.
Curry is in his first go around with the National Team and was immediately trust into starting role as the greatest shooter of all time.
In three of five prep games Curry made 3+ threes including a nice 6-for-9 effort against Serbia. He is the one true floor spacer for Team USA.
Serbia has been collapsing on drivers and with LeBron James as the primary facilitator, his ability to drive, kick, and find an open shooter such as Curry will be invaluable.
Considering the 3 point line is closer to the hoop in the Olympics than in the NBA, Curry should easily go over 2.5 3s in this game.
Pick: Steph Curry Over 2.5 Threes (DraftKings)
Serbia vs. United States — 11:15 a.m. ET
I originally bet this at Serbia +16 around the time it dropped, though this may have even been 16.5 at one point.
I'm still OK with Serbia to cover at 13.5. They didn't show their cards in the scrimmage against USA, which was a blowout loss. You're adding Nikola Jokic and Vasilije Micic to a team that won silver in the FIBA World Cup last year, and honestly, Serbia is about +650 to win the game, which probably is a worthwhile sprinkle.
Team USA has their holes, and they lost in group play to France last Olympics, so it's possible that Serbia could do more than just cover, but I'd recommend just the points. USA is USA, but Serbia might be a little disrespected here by the books.
If you do think Serbia could pull off the upset, just bet them to win the group. The winner of this game likely will.
Pick: Serbia +13.5 (Bet365)
Serbia vs. United States — 11:15 a.m. ET
LeBron James led Team USA into the Olympics and will continue to lead the offense against Serbia.
James is the primary facilitator for the Americans and the clear Alpha of the offensive attack.
James has only played about 20 minutes per game in the prep games; however, with this game being the most important of Team USA’s Group Stage games, I expect him to get a bit of extended run.
The last time he played for Team USA, he averaged 13.25 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in about 25 minutes per game back in 2012. However, in the tougher games, he played closer to 30 minutes a night. This is not to say those minutes mean much for him now, rather, to show the trend that the top players see the floor more when the games actually matter.
Serbia has done an excellent job of collapsing on drivers, and with LeBron’s ability to drive and kick to find the open man, I expect him to exceed 4.5 assists.
Pick: LeBron James Over 4.5 Assists (DraftKings)
Serbia vs. United States — 11:15 a.m. ET
LeBron James will lead Team USA in assists this tournament.
Joe Dellera and I couldn't believe he opened at +450 to do so before it dropped to +160 to wherever it is now.
In any event, this number feels low. James will have one of the highest usages on the team, and will serve as defacto point guard in most if not all lineups he's with.
