Men’s Olympic Basketball Semifinal Best Bets: Picks, Odds (Thursday, August 8)

It's going down with a doubleheader in the men's basketball Olympic semifinals. On Thursday, France and Germany will get down to business in an 11:30 a.m. tip off and our experts have a few player props focused on Dennis Schroder and Victor Wembanyama for that first matchup.

In what many may consider the main event, Team USA will see familiar faces in their game against Nikola Jokic and Serbia at 3 p.m. ET. Though the slate is light, our expert picks are loaded for what's to come on Thursday, August 8. So, let's see what best bets our experts have for us below!

Men's Olympics Basketball Picks, Odds | Thursday, August 8

By Alex Hinton

Recent trends support Nikola Jokic going over this line as he has 13 rebounds in each of his last three games while averaging 14 per game. While I love a high hit rate as much as the next person, it is also important to consider the matchups. We know that Jokic is one of the best rebounders and he was expected to dominate the glass against smaller Puerto Rico and South Sudan teams. He also had 14 rebounds against Australia in a game that went to overtime and the Boomers' center Jock Landale fouled out as well.

The United States has three of the best centers in the world in Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo. Davis and Adebayo have had NBA Playoffs battles with Jokic over the last few years while Jokic and Embiid have a bit of a player rivalry as they have battled for NBA MVP, winning the last four. Individually, all three of them have motivation to limit Jokic's impact on this game and continue the United States' quest for gold. Meanwhile, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry, and Derrick White are all strong rebounders for their position.

Jokic had 11 rebounds against the United States in the preliminary meeting and just five rebounds in 31 minutes in Serbia's loss to the United States in Group C play. The United States scored 105 and 110 points in those games. While you assume some shooting regression, the United States is averaging 110 points and shooting 55% from the field in the Olympics. Serbia has not been great defensively, but it is averaging 95.5 points per game itself.

The first two meetings have averaged 190 points with Jokic averaging eight rebounds and another high scoring affair will limit his opportunities on the glass. The United States is +22 on the glass in those games. Even if Jokic has a 20-10 game, he's still short of this line with 10 or 11 rebounds.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 11.5 Rebounds (-115)(DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

One player I expect to see have his minutes cut into is Anthony Edwards as Team USA tightens their rotations in the semifinals.

Although Edwards has been elite, he's doing so on seemingly unsustainable efficiency.

Despite playing the third-fewest minutes per game (17.7), he's scoring 16.7 ppg on 63.3% shooting including an absurd 53.8% from 3. Much of this is because he's been given an extended run/reigns on the offense in these blowouts. Despite this game having a spread of 17.5 points, I do not think that is indicative of the quality between these two teams.

I'd play under 12.5 points.

Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 12.5 Points (+105)(Bet365)

By Bryan Fonseca

Serbia has to hit threes at some point, we think.

Serbia shot about 38 percent from deep in last year's World Cup (8 games) and north of 40 percent in EuroBasket 2022 (6 games).

This Olympics, they're at 32 percent from deep in four games, that includes a better than 50 percent display against South Sudan on just 21 attempts, their only three-point performance above 32 percent so far. You would think it'll come around at least a little bit here.

Even if it doesn't, Team USA won the first game by 26 despite, for much of the contest, Team USA was legitimately at 60 percent plus from deep, later concluding at 56 percent, while Serbia hovered around the low 20s and eventually ended the night at 24 percent.

Memorably, Kevin Durant made all five from three and he and LeBron James went a collective 17-22 from the field. Team USA out shot Serbia by 32 percentage points from three, and even by more than 20 percentage points from the field.

Maybe this game is unconventional, too — it's single elimination — but I think Serbia is much better than they showed in that game, and now they'll have to show all their cards.

Pick: Serbia +17.5 (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Nikola Jokic is excellent at disrupting passing lanes on the defensive side of the ball.

Here, he gets a rematch against Team USA and I expect him to pick up a pair of steals.

Jokic has tallied 10 steals through 4 games including a 4 steal effort against Team USA in the first game of the Group Stage.

Both teams play at some of the Fastest-Paces in the Olympics and while Team USA’s offense flows well, they also take chances and can be flippant with the ball.

I expect Jokic to see at least 30 minutes but am expecting closer to 35 with the Gold Medal game on the line.

Due to the way Team USA runs their offense, Jokic’s ability to impact passing lanes will pay dividends.

I’ll grab him to exceed 1.5 steals.

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Steals (-125)(Bet365)

Previous Olympics Picks for Earlier Games on Thursday, August 8

By Joe Dellera

Dennis Schroder has been excellent as a scoring threat for Germany throughout the Olympics.

He is guaranteed touches as the Point Guard and he takes full advantage. Schroder has averaged 18 points per game through the four Olympic Games including a 26 point performance against France. He gets to the rack easily but also is able to score off of screens and shoot from beyond the arc which raises his scoring ceiling.

France seems to have made some rotational decisions with Rudy Gobert, and without him, their defense will see a bit of a downturn.

In his last 20 meaningful International Competition games he has averaged 20.13 points per game and with a trip to the Podium on the line, I expect Schroder to have plenty of opportunities. I also think he’s worth sprinkling 10 assists (+350 Bet365) or Double Double (+270) (whichever is the better number available for you) with how much of the offense should run through his hands.

Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 17.5 Points (-135)(BetMGM)

By Alex Hinton

France entered these Summer Olympics expecting to challenge for gold after losing to the United States in the gold medal game in Tokyo. However, in this event- and in preliminary play- France has looked very underwhelming, particularly offensively. Against Canada, France played its best game thus far with an outright nine-point win over Canada as 7.5-point underdogs. Yet, France still provided reason to fade them.

Against Canada, France scored 82 points, which was its second-most in the last four games. However, it got 33 points at the free throw line on 42 attempts. Some would say France benefitted from home cooking with the officiating. I believe it just took advantage of its size over Canada. Forwards Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort accounted for 23 of the 42 free throws and were able to overpower the smaller Canadian wings. This led to foul trouble for RJ Barrett, Lu Dort, and Dillon Brooks.

France's size advantage in that matchup was a reason I expected a big game from Victor Wembanyama, but the 20-year old scored just seven points on 2-for-10 from the field. It will also be difficult for him to get going Germany, who he scored 14 points against last Friday. Germany has held opponents to 71 points per game and 42.6% from the field over in the Summer Olympics, holding France to 71 exactly last week. Assuming France continues to play Wembanyama at center and limits Rudy Gobert's playing time, it will not have the same size advantage on the wing against Germany.

While benching Gobert does provide more spacing for France, it will not be able to match Germany's offense with Dennis Schroder at the helm. Schroder is averaging 18 points and is leading the Olympics with eight assists per game, shooting 52% from the field and 41% from deep. If Germany wins gold, Schroder may be the Olympics MVP, but he will have competition on his own team from Franz Wagner. The Magic star is averaging 20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.8 steals in the Olympics.

Schroder and Wagner combined for 52 points against France last Friday as Germany won 14 points. This time around, they just need a 5+ point victory to cover and I expect Germany to be the team waiting on the United States in the gold medal game.

Pick: Germany -5 (-112)(DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

As of this writing, Bet 365 has +350. Ideally, this would stay well above +200 — if so, it's just worth a little sprinkle.

Joe Dellera shouted these out to me as we scanned the playing field. Primarily, we had been looking at ways to bet Dennis Schroder because he's been great against France, and in generally internationally. You could play over on PRA or PA on lesser numbers, but the upside is on a double-double or 10+ assists — whatever has better value in your book of choice. (Yes, it should be the assists, but man, you'd be surprised.)

Schroder has gotten one double-double in four games — if it were anymore, you'd get a much worse price — but he was two assists away vs. Greece in the quarterfinals and one assist away vs. France in group play.

Sprinkle on one of these if you could get at least +250 or something in that territory.

Pick: Dennis Schroder to Record a Double-Double OR 10+ Assists (Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

Victor had an off game scoring the basketball against Canada but he simply was not needed as a scorer. He played 27 minutes but was just 2/10 from the field and 3/6 from the charity stripe.

An interesting lineup move was Coach Collet electing to play Rudy off of the bench for just 4 minutes. In part due to injury but in part due to a strategic decision. If Rudy is limited again, it should help some of the spacing on the offensive side of the ball but even if he isn’t, we have seen Wemby play well alongside him.

Throughout International play this year, Wemby is averaging 16.6 ppg and he has scored 27 and 14 against Germany. This is a bounce back spot for him and as France simply didn’t need his offense with Yabusele, Cordinier, and Fournier carrying the offense.

Germany does not have a great answer for him on the defensive side of the ball and I’ll play the base line of 16.5 while sprinkling 20+ (+205) and 25+ (+700) as well.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama over 16.5 Points (-113)

By Bryan Fonseca

Rudy Gobert played three minutes last game, and there's cloudiness — for now — on his availability going forward. France implemented a new rotation, benching Gobert and Evan Fournier, they were led in large part by Guerschon Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier, who started in their place, as well as Mathias Lessort, who was the first big off the bench.

That said, I don't think Dennis Schroder will be wildly affected by this. He's just that good internationally. He was the MVP of the World Cup last year, and Franz Wagner was hardly a factor then. Now Schroder could play off him more effectively because Wagner leads the team in scoring now.

Schroder still averages 18.0 points per game and has gone over 2.5 makes from deep in three of four games in the Olympics — including a 4-for-7 against France. He'll see drop coverage, he should get into his pull up, and he's over seven three point attempts per game in four. He's only attempted under seven threes once, that was in a blowout over Japan, and he landed at six.

Otherwise, he's clearing 2.5 regularly and has made 41.4 percent from deep.

Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 2.5 Threes (Bet365)