USA vs France Prediction, Pick and Odds for Men’s Olympics Gold Medal Game

The Olympics basketball tournaments are each a sprint to the gold medal, and we finally are here, as the men's Olympics basketball gold medal game tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, live from Paris. It’s a fitting matchup between the host country, France, and the United States — the world’s basketball powerhouse, and a heavy favorite in Saturday's gold medal game.

The world continues to narrow the gap between Team USA and the field with an influx of NBA talent worldwide. When the Dream Team cruised to Olympic gold there were just five active NBA International Players besides Team USA, now, there are 51. The growth of the game has been incredible, but it also means the path to gold is that much more difficult.

But beyond that, this game has the past and present against the future of the NBA. LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant have dominated the league for over a decade, and France is led by the alien: Victor Wembanyama.

All eyes will be on this matchup as the NBA's future tries to snatch the crown and the gold from the King.

Let's preview the matchup and get to my USA vs France prediction, where I am picking the United States to cover the spread in the men's gold medal game.

USA vs France Prediction: Take United States to Cover in Men's Gold Medal Game

USA vs France Odds

• USA vs France point spread: USA -16
• USA vs France Total: Over/under 175.5
• USA vs France Moneyline: USA -1600/France +820

The United States is anywhere from a -15.5 to -16.5 favorite, so be sure to shop around if you're planning to bank on my USA vs France pick for the United States to cover. The over/under is set at 175.5 points scored by both teams combined, and the USA is a -1600 favorite to win gold, with France +820 to pull off the upset.

Gold Medal Game Prediction for USA vs France

• USA to Cover the Spread

Team USA has throttled teams throughout the Olympics but just had their toughest test against Nikola Jokic and Serbia where they needed a Steph Curry masterpiece, a Joel Embiid surge, and a LeBron James triple double to mount the fourth quarter comeback.

The Americans play at an extremely fast pace and their personnel should allow them to dictate that against this French team who prefers to play slow with an emphasis on defense. Team USA has the best true shooting percentage (67.5%) in the Olympics and have scored 106.8 ppg, significantly more than France's 79.6. A big part of this is because of the optionality that Team USA has. Coach Kerr is able to deploy a variety of lineups and combinations to combat each opponent's strengths and weaknesses.

Here, I can see a couple players seeing significant run as we zero in our our USA vs France prediction. Joel Embiid has destroyed both Gobert and Wemby in his recent games against them. Since Rudy Gobert joined the Wolves, Embiid has tallied 32, 39, and 51 points against him and in the one game against Wemby, Embiid had that legendary 70 point performance.

While France can throw some other looks at him with Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort, Embiid's ability to score in a multitude of fashions will be invaluable. Wemby cannot afford foul trouble here, and I expect Team USA to lean heavily on Joel Embiid to start this game. I'll grab over 12.5 points as a prop to complement my USA vs France prediction.

France has progressed throughout the Olympics but have done so a bit unconvincingly. They split their matchups against Germany, they almost lost to Japan, and they've made some significant lineup changes with almost a full removal of Rudy Gobert from the rotation.

One issue France has that will be tough against the United States is that they surrender 14.4 turnovers per game and the Americans love to run and score 17.4 points per game off of turnovers. Additionally, they average 20.2 personal fouls per game, the fourth-most in the Olympics. Against the United States, if France has key players in foul trouble, this will make the road to Gold even more difficult.

Victor Wembanyama will need to have an incredible game for France to win. Wemby is averaging 13.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game for France. He has struggled with his shot though shooting just 37.5% from the field. Team USA can throw a variety of options at him, and I think this will be a difficult spot for him to excel with Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo all capable of spending significant effort and time on him. He will need to have a herculean effort to excel.

France has found success recently with Isaia Cordinier exploding for 20 and 16 points in his last two games, and Guerschon Yabusele dropping 22 and 16 as well. They exchanged a bit of defense with Gobert for offense with Yabusele and it has paid dividends; however, it dramatically decreases the size of their lineups. Both Cordinier and Yabusele can get to the rack, but have not been tested much against the relatively weak front courts of both Canada and Germany.

My Best Bet for USA vs France Gold Medal Game

USA vs France Prediction: Bet Team USA on the Spread

Team USA-France Pick

This is a matchup between two teams that are in dramatically different weight classes. While France has tallied some impressive wins against Germany and Canada en route to the gold, they simply do not have the athleticism and talent across the board to contend with Team USA.

While it is likely that Victor will one day be the best player in the world, that day is not today. Team USA has too much talent, and after this close call against Serbia, I expect them to come out locked in and firing to ensure the gold medal.

I'll grab Team USA to cover the number here at -16.

Gold Medal Game Prediction: USA -15.5 | Play to -16.5