Djokovic – Nadal Odds, Djokovic – Nadal Preview
| Djokovic Odds | -800 |
| Nadal Odds | +533 |
| Over/Under | 20.5 (+100 / -133) |
| Date | Monday, 7/29 |
| Time | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBC |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM | |
It's the match everyone was hoping to see when the draw came out and had two of the game's all-time legends potentially pitted against one another as soon as the second round.
Novak Djokovic.
Rafael Nadal.
They may not be what they once were on the court, but one thing is for certain: they're still massive draws and the tennis world will be locked on this one come Monday morning.
Djokovic Managing Knee Issue Well
How the world No. 2 made it all the way to the Wimbledon final, I'll never know. His trouncing at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz wasn't a complete shock though, considering how he'd looked leading in.
It's a stroke of good fortune for him that he was dealt an alternate in Matthew Ebden in the opening round and a veteran who has seen his game regress even more than him in the second then, isn't it?
Look, I don't think Djokovic has a great shot at winning the gold medal (at least not the way he looks at the moment) but I'd be stunned if he lost this match to Nadal — who has declined even more than he has.
He still has plenty of rally tolerance and his movement appears to be better on the clay, where he can slide more comfortably without worrying he might aggravate his repaired meniscus.
I'd trust him to get the job done here.
Nadal Needs Another Miracle
I don't want this to come off as me being a hater, but the fact is, Nadal has ground opponents into the ground and taken advantage of some good fortune with random drops in their level to win as many matches as he has recently.
While we've seen his crosscourt backhand look nasty or his famously high-RPM forehand look vicious in spurts, he's not able to do it with nearly as much regularity.
His movement has also dropped a level and that's led to the Spaniard being late to spots on occasion, which in turn has resulted in an uptick in the unforced error count.
He should've lost a few times in Bastad, Sweden to fairly mediocre competition, was crushed in the final by an underpowered Nuno Borges and was fortunate that Marton Fucsovics' break point conversion was horrendous in the last round.
Not to mention, Djokovic played under an hour on Saturday against a doubles specialist that got into the draw as an alternate. Nadal has played both Saturday and Sunday, once in doubles and once in singles and has averaged about two hours a match.
Djokovic's level hasn't been great since his knee surgery either, but it hasn't dropped quite as much as Nadal's, and the extra rest has me concerned for the 14-time French Open champion's chances.
Djokovic – Nadal Best Bet
The market has absolutely hammered Djokovic since the price was released. Is there still room for value with the spread at -5 and the total at 20? Perhaps, but I'd say it's marginal.
Here's how I'd attack the match: I'd wait for an opportunity to jump in live. Nadal may start the match competitively and keep himself close – especially with Djokovic's ability to generate pace being reduced in recent times – but as the match wears on, I'd expect Djokovic's advantage to grow.
I'll hope for a close opening frame and then look to back Djokovic in some capacity live for the second.
