With the Olympics boxing odds set for some key matches, I've got some gold medal picks and predictions for this weekend's action.
Will boxing fans see more surprises on Friday and Saturday? After all, there's been an uncanny amount of upsets that could potentially continue through to the gold medal bouts.
This year, Olympic boxing has 13 weight classes, and as of this writing, eight gold medal bouts remain with four on Friday and four on Saturday.
But many of the favorites in these weight classes – Irma Testa, Busenaz Surmeneli, Tammara Thibeault and Julio Cesar La Cruz, for example – didn't even medal when all were projected to win gold in their respective divisions. Other favorites such as Sofiane Oumiha fell short and settled for silver, and Arlen Lopez – second-shortest odds in his class – was narrowly outpointed and got the bronze.
In fact, all those boxers I mentioned lost by split decision. And one thing to factor in amateur-style boxing is that a slow start can kill you. There are only three rounds, after all.
However, we've seen the emergence of possible new young stars, including super lightweight gold medal winner Erislandy Alvarez, likely gold medal winner Imane Khelif and gold medal challenger Marco Verde, for example, who were all long shots before the tournament. Alvarez is one I called at +1000 odds due to his ability and previous competitiveness with favorite Oumiha, whom he defeated by split decision in the tournament final on Wednesday.
With eight golds left to win, let's see how to bet.
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Marco Verde (+165)
The Moneyline Bet
The only underdog I want to bet is Mexico's Marco Verde, who is +165 on DraftKings to beat the favored Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev for the welterweight (71kg) gold medal.
Verde and Muydinkhujaev both won 3-2 splits to get here, so this is closer to a toss-up to me than Verde's implied probability to win. Muydinkhujaev being favored is reasonable, admittedly, given that he won the amateur boxing gold in 2023. Verde has more of a pro-style, but it's worked in the tournament so far.
Muydinkhujaev's decision win over Omari Jones felt like more of a could-go-either-way decision than Verde's over Britain's Lewis Richardson despite them both being 3-2. But Verde has future star potential and has the power to change this fight with the more significant punches.
Bakhodir Jalolov, Buse Naz Cakiroglu & Imane Khelif (-238)
The Parlay Bet
Super heavyweight (92kg+) Bakhodir Jalolov, flyweight (50kg) Buse Naz Cakiroglu and the aforementioned super lightweight Imane Khelif are all large favorites to win.
And while I just said this has been a tournament of upsets, these haven't been boxers worth fading. Jalolov, Cakiroglu and Khelif have won all their bouts 5-0, meaning all unanimous decisions, making them three of the only fighters with such success in the tournament. They're also, at least arguably, the three most dominant.
Jalolov won gold last Olympics, is already 14-0 with 14 knockouts as a pro, and went from -320 to -1000 or shorter before the tournament began. Jalolov losing might be the biggest upset in the Olympics this year – that's in any sport. I'm deadass serious.
Few, if any, have boxed more beautifully than Cakiroglu, who honestly could be a bigger favorite than she is.
And Khelif has clearly made a leap from last Olympics, where she didn't even medal. She's better at managing her range, and the favorite in her weight class who would've beaten her – Surmeneli – was eliminated by Janjaem Suwannapheng, whom Khelif shut out in the semis.
If you parlay them, you still might get -200 if you're lucky, depending on the sportsbook, so it may or may not be worth it considering judging, only three rounds, etc. But if the short odds and minimal payouts are good enough for you, consider it. These three should handle business.
Julia Szeremeta (+700)
The Long Shot Bet
OK, value bet time.
Lin Yu Ting is -1400 to beat featherweight (57kg) Julia Szeremeta on DraftKings. Here's the case for placing a small bet on Szeremeta to score the upset.
One, she's +700, so we love a good long shot. But two, she's truly a potential rising star in this tournament as well, and she just knocked off Nesthy Petecio, one of the remaining favorites at featherweight. Petecio was about -400 to beat Szeremeta and lost a 4-1 split, which really could've been 5-0 quite easily.
Szeremeta is unconventional: She hops, dances, keeps her hands low, and is only 20 years old. If there's a long shot worth backing, she's demonstrated to be the one, to me.
