Olympic Boxing is back!
If you're interested at all, I was on the Action Network Podcast discussing a ton of bets for Olympic boxing this year. They're also featured in our Olympics best bets file.
Of those, only one would be considered a "long shot," and that's American featherweight Jahmal Harvey to win gold at +400, which has since moved to +475 in at least one prominent sportsbook that offers Olympic boxing.
Maybe a second in Arlen Lopez at +320. Maybe.
So for this Olympics boxing preview, we'll highlight a couple of other longshots – longer than Harvey's odds – worth considering to sprinkle a little something on.
As discussed on the podcast, the favorites this year are legitimate. Many have already won gold in the Olympics, or at least one – often multiple – in other prominent competitions (depending on the region the boxer is from), including the IBA Boxing World Championships, Pan American Games, European Games and so on.
But, inevitably, at least someone, if not multiple boxers, will emerge to shock the world, and there will be runs that are prolonged or cut short in ways people don't anticipate.
We'll try our hand at identifying realistic options here.
Erislandy Alvarez, Cuba (+1000)
Men's 63.5 KG, Super Lightweight Class
Erislandy Alvarez qualified in Thailand this spring and pitched a shutout in three of his four fights. The Cuban amateur boxing pedigree is damn near unrivaled, and Alvarez, 24, is also a recently turned professional, now 3-0 with 1 KO in a career that began in 2023.
Sofiane Oumiha of France is an overpriced favorite – and often found at minus money on the books. The 29-year-old wasn't one of the favorites I personally felt comfortable backing from a betting standpoint because this weight class is deep.
Oumiha won silver in 2016 at lightweight, where he also won three IBA world championships. The last – in 2023 – was in the final against Alvarez, which felt like a more competitive fight than was judged (4-1 Oumiha).
Gimme an Alvarez sprinkle here. He can compete with the favorite, who I think is a bit overpriced, while Alvarez should be shorter than +1000, and that's good enough for me to take a shot at it.
Amina Zidani, France (+1400)
Women's 57 KG, Featherweight Class
Amina Zidani has the fifth-shortest odds in this weight class, but women's featherweight also has the longest favorite of any division in the Olympics with Irma Testa at +240 favored.
To her credit, she won bronze at the 2020 Olympics, which took place three summers ago, and has since won gold at the 2023 World Championships.
Why Zidani then? She started boxing late – currently 31 – and didn't really compete at the highest levels of amateur boxing until recently. Testa beat Zidani in the 2023 world championships 5-0, in the semifinals in India, giving Zidani a bronze. Zidani, though, won gold at the 2023 Euros one year after Testa did in 2022.
In the final, Zidani beat Bulgaria's Svetlana Staneva (+370) 4-1. Staneva beat Testa 4-1 in the semis right before.
Like the last long shot, it's just weird pricing. Testa is clearly really good, but should the gap between her +240 price and Zidani at +1400 be what it is? I don't think so, not when Zidani just defeated the third favorite, who is +370, fairly convincingly.
And for what it's worth, and this is not the same game, but Zidani is already 5-0 with three knockouts as a pro and won a WBA intercontinental title.
Additionally, I also considered Nasthy Petecio of the Phillippines, who beat Testa in the 2020 Olympics and won silver, at +900 in the same weight class.
Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!
