The NBA Finals ended last month and NBA Summer League ended last Monday. However, fear not, with group play getting underway in Paris for the 2024 Summer Olympics, there is still hoops to bet on and make a profit.
Three players that I will be backing for player props this weekend include: Jock Landale, Andreas Obst, and Anthony Davis.
Jock Landale Over 10.5 Points (-130)
5:00 AM | CNBC and Peacock
After going undrafted in 2018, Jock Landale joined the San Antonio Spurs for the 2021-22 season. He has spent a season each with the Spurs, Rockets, and Suns, averaging 5.6 points per game in 179 career games. However, per 36 minutes, Landale has averaged 15.4 points per game in his NBA career.
FIBA games are 40 minutes instead of 48 like NBA games and Landale will have a more prominent role playing for Australia compared to his NBA team. In the Tokyo Summer Olympics, Landale averaged 12.8 points in six games. As Australia prepared for Paris this time around, Landale has averaged 11.2 points per game in five preliminary games. He scored 11 points in three of the five, but in three of four games when playing 20 minutes or more. That includes 19 points against China and 20 against the United States.
Landale also may have a favorable matchup against Spain. We are used to Spain being one of the biggest threats to the United States for the gold medal led by the likes of Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka among others. Landale will not have to contend with any of them down low this time around and Australia is favored to win the game as well.
Australia's leading scorers may be Josh Giddey and Patty Mills, but Giddey will also be looking to set up his teammates and his assists line sits at 7.5. A few assists to Landale in the pick-and-roll or via other easy baskets will help him to get 11 or 12 points and cash this line.
Andreas Obst Over 2.5 3-pointers (+100)
7:30 AM | Peacock
Playing in Germany and Spain, Andreas Obst has made 38% or better of his 3-point attempts in six of the last seasons, shooting over 40% five times. He has averaged 10 points or more in each of the last four seasons. That includes a career-high 13.4 points per game in the 2020-21 with Ratiopharm Ulm in the BBL.
Obst's points line at 9.5 and if he connects on three triples, you would expect him to score 10 points. He averaged 14.6 points in Germany's final three preparation games, including 14 against the United States. However, I prefer his 3s line because if he scores 10 points, it is likely because he made four 3-pointers.
Against the United States, Obst played 28 minutes and attempted 12 field goals, 10 of which were 3-point attempts. Over the last three years with Bayern Munich, 84% of his field goals attempts have been 3-point attempts as well. Given that 80% of his shots will be 3s, I prefer the plus odds here compared to -120 for over 9.5 points. It also eliminates a situation where he possibly hits his 3s line, but ends with nine points.
Obst will also benefit from Dennis Schroder's playmaking and the attention that Franz Wagner will draw. If he gets 10 3-pointers up again, he will likely cash this line. However, even with only seven or eight attempts, I like his chances of going 3-for-7 or 3-for-8 from deep as well.
Anthony Davis Over 8.5 Rebounds (+125)
11:15 AM | NBC
In the United States preliminary games, Anthony Davis certainly made an argument that he was playing the best on the team and certainly the best big man on the team. In just 17.6 minutes per game, Davis is averaging 11.8 points and 9.8 rebounds in five preliminary games. Davis has had 11 rebounds in three of the five games.
Head coach Steve Kerr has started Joel Embiid over Davis and that is unlikely to change against Serbia. Davis has played on the second unit next to Bam Adebayo and together they have been dominant defensively. If Serbia's reserves struggle to score, that will give Davis more rebound chances off their misses. Additionally, if Davis or Adebayo block any shots with the relaxed FIBA goaltending rules, Davis will have an opportunity to grab those as well.
If Davis continues to outplay Embiid, he may see north of 20 minutes with Nikola Jokic on the other side. More playing time will give him more opportunity to cash this line.