2024 Paris Summer Olympics Odds, Best Bets, Picks
Getty Images. Pictured: The Olympic rings on the Eiffel Tower in Paris ahead of the 2024 Summer Olympics.
- The 2024 Summer Olympics have already started, but the official beginning happens Friday with the Opening Ceremony.
- With a myriad of events getting started throughout the weekend, now is the time to learn about odds and best bets from a number of sports.
- Continue reading below for the best bets and odds from the 2024 Olympics in Paris, courtesy of The Action Network Podcast.
The 2024 Olympics in Paris is right around the corner, with the Opening Ceremony set for this Friday and the Games opening proper this weekend.
With another Olympic Games upon us, there is of course plenty of opportunities to bet on the myriad of events we'll be witnessing over the next several weeks.
The Action Network Podcast has assembled a group of experts to break down a hodgepodge of sports on which they've found significant betting value entering the games.
On the latest episode, you can listen to the group, alongside host Mike Calabrese, break down their respective sports, with best bets and picks on medal counts, soccer, golf, basketball, tennis, and much, much more.
Listen to The Action Network Podcast for a full betting breakdown, and read their picks below.
2024 Summer Olympics Best Bets
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Note: Listed odds are the best available odds the analyst could find at the time of the podcast's recording. More than perhaps any other event, Olympics odds fluctuate greatly from sportsbook to sportsbook. As always but especially in this instance, it is of the utmost importance to shop around for the best available line when placing your bets. Betting odds for various events are available at most major betting sites, providing numerous opportunities for betting on the Olympics.
Medal Count
Netherlands Under 16.5 Gold Medals
Evan Abrams: Netherlands is an up-and-coming country in terms of the Olympics, and they’re probably going to do better than they have in the past. Twelve is the most in their history – that happened in 2000. They had 10 in Tokyo in 2020, eight in Brazil, six in London, seven in Beijing.
I think they’re going to get 12 or higher. I think they’re going to break their own gold medal record. I just think 16.5 is very aggressive so if you can find that number, that’s definitely worth betting.
Germany Under 10.5 Gold Medals
Evan Abrams: The German Olympics teams have just kind of gone down the ladder over the last few Games. I’m taking under 10.5 golds and 10.5 is an important number because Germany is just not dominant in all the events they have been in the past.
They’ve had double-digit gold medals in every single Olympics since 1992, and even before that with East and West Germany, basically 10 or more in every single Olympics. But if you look more recently, they had 10 in Tokyo and 11 in London, so it’s really coming down compared to where it was.
So I’m going to go under 10.5. This country is just lacking domination in so many sports. I think they can get to double-digits but getting to that 11 mark is going to be too difficult.
Japan Under 15.5 Gold Medals
Evan Abrams: This is an important shopping situation because I took 15.5 and now I’m only seeing 13.5 and some 14s, which is probably closer to correct. Japan broke their record in Tokyo, obviously doing a great job in their home country, but now this is a bit of a different situation coming to Paris. They had 27 last time out, but I think this is a year where they go back down to 12 or maybe 13, and there’s a chance it’s even as low as 11.
France Over 24.5 Gold Medals
Evan Abrams: This is a good market to play with France being the Olympics host nation. I’m seeing some 26.5 and 27.5 numbers out there, so if you can find the rogue 24.5 out there, that’s something worth looking at for sure. The last four summer Olympics France has had 10, 10, 11, 7, so this would be a massive jump, but they’re projected to be in 24 different sports, and have the most athletes ever for them.
To me I think a small bet on the over there might be worth it.
Women’s 3x3 Basketball
Canada to Win Gold Medal (+350)
Calvin Wetzel: Team USA is correctly favored here, but I do like Team Canada to take this down and they’re at the +300 to +350 range at most books.
The thing about 3x3 is that it is just so vastly different from 5x5. Anyone who has watched 3x3 or played 3x3 knows how fast-paced it is. They don’t really have dead balls. It’s just all about movement and spacing and when you’ve played in a system like this and you have experience, it’s huge.
When you look at the Team USA roster, they play 5x5 most of the year and then just do 3x3 in special events like this. The Canada roster pretty much exclusively plays 3x3 all year every year, and that makes a difference even though they might not have the WNBA talent on their roster that Team USA does.
That’s what they’ve been doing for pretty much the last five years, and they’ve been developing that chemistry with each other, familiarity with the system, including their two best players who are twins named Katherine and Michelle Plouffe.
They beat Team USA in a preliminary event in April. Team USA of course was going to have Cameron Brink and then she unfortunately tore her ACL. They replaced her with Dearica Hamby who I actually think is an upgrade for them since she has played some 3x3.
But I still think Team Canada with all the experience that they have and the history they have in this event, having beaten Team USA before, I think +350 is just too long for them.
Women’s Water Polo
Team USA to Win Gold Medal (-167)
Calvin Wetzel: I’m going with the favorite here in Team USA. While they’re not as dominant as they are in a sport like, say, 5x5 basketball, where they’re like -2000 to win, they are still the dominant team in this sport.
I’m seeing -167 to -200 across the board and there’s still plenty of room to play it even at that juice. They won the last three Olympics as well as the last three World Cups, so six world competitions in a row.
If you want to use it as a parlay piece because you don’t want to lay the juice I like that as well, but at the end of the day until someone dethrones them, this is still Team USA’s sport.
Women’s Field Hockey
Germany & Argentina to Win Gold Medal (half-unit each)
Evan Abrams: Netherlands is absolutely dominant in this sport, and they’re dominant in both men’s and women’s. Since women’s field hockey was added to the Olympics in 1980, no country has won the gold medal in both men’s and women’s in the same year. Netherlands is looking to do that this year.
Netherlands is about -195 on the women’s side and around -350 on the men’s side. I’ll focus on the women as I think there’s a chance they get knocked off so I’m going to take a shot here. Netherlands won the gold medal in 2020, beating Argentina in the final, 3-1, and in 2024 qualifications it’s worth noting that Netherlands did win all five matches by a combined score of 22-2, so they were absolutely dominant.
I’m going to split my bet here and put a half-unit on Germany and a half-unit on Argentina. Both countries are near the top and among the closest to Netherlands, and we’re getting pretty good prices.
Germany lost to Belgium during qualifications but did outscore every other team they faced by a combined score of 17-0. They’re looking really good and also scaling upward. They were sixth in the 2020 Olympics, fourth in the 2022 World Cup, and third in qualification. I think there’s a chance they get into the final here so they’re worth a half-unit investment.
As for Argentina, I think they are a little sneaky. They’re looking for 2020 payback on the Dutch. They outscored opponents in qualifications by a score of 39-2. I think they have a good shot at knocking them out this time around and are worth a half-unit bet.
Women’s Handball
France to Win Gold Medal (+125) & Norway to Win Gold Medal (+260)
Calvin Wetzel: France is the best team and they’re the home team, the rightful favorites and getting them at plus money is pretty good. They won the last Olympics and when you look at international competition over the last year or year-and-a-half or two years, and even more recently, they’ve won 25 out of their last 26 matchups.
The one loss was to Norway, who has won 22 of their last 26 and the four losses were to France. They’ve played each other five times and have only lost to each other in recent competition.
Norway is at +260 and I feel like that should be closer to +200. It’s going to be pretty hard for anyone to knock off either of these two teams. They obviously could knock off each other.
Because you’re getting plus money on both of them, I think it’s worth playing both of those.
Swimming
Gretchen Walsh (USA) 100M Butterfly Gold Medal (-115)
Evan Abrams: If you’re going to put some money on the Red, White, and Blue, this is the event to do it in. Gretchen Walsh is the favorite and she’s the one everyone is going to be betting on coming into the competition.
She just broke the world record in the 100-meter butterfly in the trials. She’s in multiple events, but this is her best event. If you could find her in the -115 to -120 range, that seems about right to where I’d want to bet her.
Track & Field
Bet on World Records To Be Broken
Evan Abrams: There are four names I want to focus on here. I don’t have any specific bets, but these are the ones I’d want to target. They are:
- Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (USA) in the 400M hurdles
- Grant Holloway (USA) in the 100M hurdles
- Masai Russell (USA) in the 10M hurdles
- Gabby Thomas (USA) in the 200M
All four of these athletes are favored in their events, but they’re such extreme favorites that there’s no value in betting them.
I haven’t seen any markets for world records to be broken, but these four are ones I would target if those markets become available.
Men’s Road Race
Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands) to Win Gold Medal & Wout Van Aert (Belgium) to Win Gold Medal (half-unit each)
Evan Abrams: This is really tied to the Tour de France. You’ve got a few people who are riding in that with a small window after that until the Olympics, so a little bit of rest and rust goes into this.
Netherlands’ Mathieu van der Poel is the favorite around +300. I’m splitting my unit here. One half-unit is going on van der Poel. He’s young and a worthy favorite.
The other half-unit is going on Belgium’s Wout Van Aert. He is in the Tour de France, but he did skip the race in Italy prior to it. Has a little bit of rest.
The reason I’m going to pass on the guy who is leading the Tour de France (at the time of recording), Tadej Pogacar of Slovenia, is because he’s doing the Tour de France and he did the race in Italy right beforehand. I think the grueling stretch is going to get to him.
Men’s Time Trials
Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) to Win Gold Medal & Joshua Tarling (Great Britain) to Win Gold Medal
Evan Abrams: Joshua Tarling is the favorite around even money, but I have seen him in the +120 range and that’s where I’m targeting him.
He’s not in the Tour de France. He’s focused on the Olympics. He’s young at 20-years-old. I think it’s a question of experience vs. rust, but he’s really focused on this event so a half-unit at +120.
If he wins you’ll basically recoup your losses from my other pick, which is Remco Evenepoel of Belgium at around 3/1 as I think he’s worth a look.
There’s only three people in this race under 25-1, so I am picking No. 1 and No. 3 and passing on Filippo Ganna of Italy.
Women’s Surfing
Caitlin Simmers (USA) to Win Gold Medal +650 & Tatiana Weston-Webb (Brazil) to Win Gold Medal +900
Calvin Wetzel: Vahine Fierro won an event at this location a few months ago at 45-1 odds and is now the favorite here at 3-1.
It’s important to remember that this event is in Tahiti, which is halfway across the world in the political center of French Polynesia, and that’s actually where Fierro is from. The waves here are a beast. It's one of the hardest in the world and an absolute monster. If you haven’t surfed this thing before, it’s going to be very difficult even if you’re a professional, and Fierro grew up surfing it.
That’s why the sportsbooks adjusted after losing out on her at 45-1 a few months ago and have adjusted her down to being the favorite. That said, while she has the familiarity factor, there are some other places worth looking at that now have value.
Caitlin Simmers is actually the best surfer in the world right now at most places. She’s third in odds right now. She was the runner-up at this location in her rookie year in 2023. She’s young at still just 18-years-old. She put up some good scores here recently before being knocked out by Fierro, who ended up winning.
She still has had a lot of success at this venue and has obviously been the best of the world everywhere else. So I think +650 is too long for her.
My other bet is Tatiana Weston-Webb at +900 as she’s also been really good at events at this location the last couple of years. She also lost a couple months ago to Fierro in that same event in an absolutely epic semifinal where she had a perfect score of 10 – which you practically never see – and still couldn’t come away with the win. So +900 is good value for her here.
Men’s Tennis
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain) to Win Gold Medal +185 & Alexander Zverev (Germany) to Win Gold Medal +650
David Gertler: It’s hard to go against Carlos Alcaraz. You can find him in the market at around +185 before the draw, which does not necessarily indicate how good he’s been this summer.
Both the men’s and women’s tennis competitions at the Olympics are being played at Roland-Garros, which is of course the site of the French Open. It’s clay courts. It’s slow. Alcaraz this season alone has already won the French Open. He’s 12-3 on clay and 33-6 overall.
On clay in his career, too, he’s 138-34, which is an 80% win rate. That is insane.
If you’re looking for someone with a little more enticing odds, someone who might not be as well-known outside of the tennis world, we can look at Alcaraz’s opponent in that French Open final, Alexander Zverev at +650.
He’s super solid from the baseline. He’s going to make you work for everything. This season alone he is 16-4 on clay and he is 189-84 on clay in his career, which is a 69% win rate.
He is a hardened clay-courter who took Alcaraz to five sets in the French Open. If Alcaraz goes out early, he’s someone I think I can trust to get the job done.
Women’s Tennis
Iga Swiatek (Poland) to Win Gold Medal -195
David Gertler: If you follow tennis right now you know that you have to look at Iga Swiatek of Poland. Right now before the draw, she’s around -195 to win the gold medal, and you might look at that and think that’s quite a steep price to pay for a pre-tournament wager.
But I’m here to tell you that it should probably even be a little bigger than that.
Swiatek has won the French Open four out of the last five years, including the last three. This year at the French Open, she lost one set the entire tournament, and that was to Naomi Osaka, which honestly seemed like a bit of a fluky match.
She was not challenged and only lost like three games in the final. She is that good on clay with her heavy forehand, her ability to move on the surface, her pinpoint serve, her rally tolerance, her placement around the court. It’s all spectacular.
For her career, she’s 132-17 on clay, and this season she is 21-1, having won in Madrid, Rome, and Roland-Garros.
Just to give the people a longer shot: let’s say she sprains her ankle or something. That’s the only way I see that she loses. So who can I grab that isn’t Swiatek because I don’t want to bet a -195 favorite before the tournament?
The one name I would say is Coco Gauff at +650. I’m sure a lot of Americans familiar with her and looking to display some patriotism are going to want to bet her. I wouldn’t unless it’s something small. She has a very good backhand, but her forehand is poor and makes it all the more impressive she was able to climb all the way as high as the No. 2 ranking in the world.
At +650, she would still be the clear favorite in my mind if a scenario were to arise where Swiatek couldn’t finish the tournament.
All that said, Swiatek is the favorite for a reason and I really think she’s playable all the way down to probably around -250.
Men’s Boxing
Jamal Harvey (USA) to Win 57kg Gold Medal +400
Bryan Fonseca: Jamal Harvey may have the best pro pedigree of the guys competing here. He comes in the featherweight division and he’s won world championships, he’s won at the Pan-American Games already, and he’s just 21-years-old.
You can see the speed, reflexes, and power there at the featherweight division. He’s already proven himself by beating other top amateurs in that division.
He’s not the favorite but at +400 is worth a shot. Of the eight boxers on Team USA – four men and four women – he’s the one I’d identify as most likely to go far and most worth taking a shot on.
Bakhodir Jalolov (Uzbekistan) to Win 92kg Gold Medal -320
Bryan Fonseca: As far as men’s boxers go at the Olympics, it starts and ends with heavyweight Bakhodir Jalolov of Uzbekistan. He won the gold medal in the last Olympics, and he’s a pro boxer who still does really well in the Olympics.
Quite frankly, I don’t know why he’s even still fighting in amateur competitions because he’s already ranked by most sanctioning bodies as a top 10 or 15 heavyweight in the world because he’s 14-0 with 14 knockouts and he’s already fought on ESPN. So I don’t know why he’s doing this other than country pride.
He’s in the -300 to -320 range depending on where you look, but simply put, I’d be stunned if he doesn’t win this tournament. He’s so much better than everyone else in that weight class.
Arlen Lopez (Cuba) to Win 80kg Gold Medal +275
Bryan Fonseca: The gold medal winner at the last Olympics, Arlen Lopez, also has a gold medal at middleweight because of his resume as he worked his way up in weight classes. He is a Cuban who has been an amateur boxer for seemingly forever, which is more of a thing in Cuba. Some of them never even turn pro.
He’s looking to become one of the only three-time Olympic gold medalists in boxing history.
Cuban Parlay: Arlen Lopez to Win 80kg Gold Medal +275 & Julio Cesar La Cruz to Win 92kg Gold Medal +150
Bryan Fonseca: Both of these guys are very good and worth backing to win their divisions, and if you want to get a little crazy and do a Cuban Parlay on both Lopez and La Cruz to win their divisions, I wouldn’t mind that either.
They both fight with that very distinctly Cuban style. They have the low hands, which looks showboatey, but have amazing reflexes, a piston-like jab, hooks from angles you don’t expect.
I think they can both win their tournaments.
Women’s Boxing
Tammara Thibeault (Canada) to Win 75kg Gold Medal +100
Bryan Fonseca: Tammara Thibeault is the favorite in her division in the +100 to +150 range. She won the gold medal at the World Championships in 2022, the Commonwealth Games in 2022, and the Pan-American Games in 2023.
She’s a 6-foot-tall southpaw, so she’s big and she has all the southpaw combinations you want, the 1-1-2 from range, the straight left to the body, the right hook to the head. She’s really skilled and I think that she should win this tournament.
Busenaz Surmeneli (Turkey) to Win 66kg Gold Medal +100
Bryan Fonseca: She’s really, really good, but kind of a showboater, which makes her very fun to watch.
She won the gold medal at the last Olympics and she won gold medals at both the 2019 and 2022 World Championships. She has very good footwork, can fight both inside and out, she’s very comfortable there.
Men’s Soccer
Japan to Win Gold Medal 33-1
Michael Leboff: It’s important to remember that these tournaments are different from a lot of international soccer competitions. Quite frankly, the players don’t really care about it as much, and you’ll see a lot of big names skip out.
Part of that is because of the rules of roster-building for an Olympic soccer team. These are essentially youth teams. The rule is that you can roster three players over the age of 23, but other than that you’re basically looking at all of these countries’ U23 teams.
The can cause a lot of confusion in terms of handicapping, but usually the host if it is a soccer-playing nation will try to gussy up their team as much as they can and the French have done that which is why they are the favorite around +225.
But I’m not going to go there at all. I think there’s just too much volatility in terms of these rosters.
So there are a couple of teams I do find interesting. I think Japan is a worthy longshot at 33-1 just given their group. There are four groups of four teams each, and the top two teams from each group make it through to the knockout stage. Japan’s group is Paraguay, Mali, and Israel, so there’s not really any real danger for the Blue Samurai to get through.
Obviously if they get through the group stage, you’ll be sitting there with a 33-1 ticket in the knockout round, and you’ll have to feel good about that. And I feel pretty good about their chances of getting out of the group stage.
Iraq to Win Gold Medal 100-1
Michael Leboff: The other team that is kind of interesting is a triple-digit longshot and that’s Iraq.
The floors and ceilings of all of these teams are so extreme that it’s kind of anyone’s guess. Nobody really understands how these teams are going to play. You can look at youth setups and the like, but that will only get you so far.
Iraq is in a tough group with Argentina, Morocco, and Ukraine. Argentina, of course, is essentially a co-second favorite along with Spain and behind France, but the other two teams in that group – Morocco and Ukraine – I’m not too afraid of.
You’re going to have to take one longshot in this field and I think Iraq is worth it. When I said this tournament doesn’t really matter for some teams, that’s not the case for some of these smaller countries like Iraq, Guinea, Mali, Dominican Republic. For them, this matter quite a bit more.
So at 100-1, you can’t go wrong with a small flier.
Women’s Soccer
Australia to Win Gold Medal 16-1
Michael Leboff: The women’s side of the equation is very different from the men’s side in that it is a very big tournament for them and we’ll be getting the best rosters these countries can put forward for an international competition.
Because of this, you can absolutely take a look at the favorites on the women’s side as opposed to the men’s, as they’re more deserving of potential bets and you don’t have to worry about the roster construction or motivation.
That said, I like Australia here at 16-1. It’s a really good program and they’ve been around some big trophies for a while. They just finished fourth in their home World Cup in 2023.
The draw is tough, but on the women’s side it’s three groups of four and some third-place teams can get through to the knockout stage, so the fact that they are in a tough group with Team USA and Germany isn’t necessarily a death sentence.
They could still find their way through as a third-place team, or even upset the U.S. or Germany during group play.
At 16-1, they’re my favorite team to bet on outside of the teams that are listed as the favorites.
Men’s Golf
Tom Kim (South Korea) to Win Gold Medal 28-1
Joshua Perry: Now in our third straight Olympics with golf as an event, this is the first time we’re getting a course with some legitimate history on it, where as in Brazil it was a course nobody was familiar with, and in Japan it was one where it was very heavily just the Asian Tour places who had any history on it.
Le Golf National, the venue for the golf event, is known for hosting significant golf tournaments and will be a challenging course for the competitors.
We’ve seen this place 25 times. We know what it is. And what we saw especially when the Ryder Cup was here is that if you haven’t played this course, you run into a lot of trouble because you don’t know where to miss and there’s danger everywhere.
Tom Kim came over in Europe and played this course last year and finished fourth on the DP World Tour. It’s a course that fits him perfectly: You plop the driver into play, hit the iron, and hopefully the putter gets hot.
Alex Noren (Sweden) to Win Gold Medal 55-1
Joshua Perry: Alex Noren won here and that’s a big thing to look at here, obviously. He knows his way around this course, he’s had success here.
It’s going to be a happy spot for him coming off the British Open where he recorded a Top-20 finish.
So I think the history at this course, on a course where we know history matters, is a big asset.
Victor Hovland (Norway) to Win Gold Medal 22-1
Spencer Aguiar: In my opinion, we’re getting this price because of his recent form. I view this very similarly, though, to his third-place finish at the PGA Championship a few months ago.
Hovland ranked fifth in my model when faced with similar Total Driving courses. He was second for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total for this venue. And then he was fifth on similar putting surfaces.
You will note that a lot of Hovland’s struggles will occur with the sloppy around-the-green production that we’ve gotten in 2024, but I keep going back to this answer: thick rough, water, a Florida-esque feel with all the water that comes into play, and that accentuated the need for ball-striking and really removed some of the harsh elements that come into play with his short game that end up holding him back.
Shubhankar Sharma (India) to Win Gold Medal 400-1
Spencer Aguiar: I know the form is going to leave a lot to be desired, similarly to Hovland, but my model had him much closer to that 150-1 range.
This is a very similar situation as Hovland where a lot of the around-the-green stuff is what has been hindering his performance and preventing higher-end finishes.
I just think that this is a name where, when we have a weaker field to begin with and the bottom 20% being at a lower grade than average, Sharma wasn’t one of those names. He’s much closer to a 100-1 or 125-1 golfer.
Men’s Basketball
European Country to Win Gold Medal +500
Bryan Fonseca: Team USA is the obvious favorite here and you can find them in the market anywhere from the -400 to even as low as the -1000 range, so let me preface this by saying I think Team USA is going to win the gold medal.
With this bet, you’re getting almost half the field; five out of the 12 teams, to be exact. You’re getting France, who is the host and looking to rebound after a miserable World Cup performance. They also added Victor Wembanyama, who you may have heard of.
They also added Bilal Coulibaly, who was one of the best rookies in the NBA last season while playing in a weird situation in Washington, and Frank Ntilikina is also back after not being on the World Cup roster. They still have Nicolas Batum, Evan Fournier, Nando de Colo, and obviously Rudy Gobert.
This bet also gives you Serbia, who just so happens to have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. They’ll be adding him to a team that finished second in the World Cup. Vasilije Micic is also going to be on the team, it appears.
Then you have Greece, which of course has Giannis Antetokounmpo, there’s Germany, which won the World Cup, and there’s Spain, which has the best European pedigree out of all of them.
Now, I do think Spain is probably a little overrated this year, but at the same time, these are the teams you’re getting. So the question is: do you want Europe at +500 or do you want the field at +290, which only adds in, with due respect to the other teams, only Canada and Australia in terms of real contenders.
So to me, this is the most valuable bet on the board. Given how big of a favorite Team USA is, you’ve got to look at unique longshots and I like this one. It’s not worth a full unit, but it’s worth a sprinkle.
Australia to Win Group A +550
Bryan Fonseca: In terms of longshots, I really like Australia to win Group A, which is in the +550 to +600 range. This is the “Group of Death.” You have four teams in Australia, Greece, Canada, and Spain, and there’s the possibility given the format that three of them could advance to the knockout stage.
I think point differential is going to end up being a factor here as a tiebreaker and we’re going to see a lot of closer games. I think the reason why Canada is a little bit too heavily favored here is because of how strong the group is and we’re seeing them at some sportsbooks as low as -170.
That’s just crazy. I think they have the highest upside of any team in this group, but we need to show some more respect to the other teams in the group.
So you’ve got Canada’s upside and Greece with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Australia’s got a really deep team, and they’re bringing back a lot of the guys who won the bronze medal at the last Olympics, which was the country’s first men’s basketball medal.
They have Patty Mills, Josh Green, Joe Ingles, Matthew Dellavedova, Dante Exum, Jock Landale, Nick Kay, Duop Reath, and are adding Dyson Daniels. It’s a good team and it’s a deep, well-balanced team.
They’re not going to be sexy, and I think that people have to take into account you can win your group with a 2-1 record, so I think this is a real opportunity where we see two teams at 2-1 and then it just comes down to point differential.
Really, this is just a shortening of Canada with that minus in front of their number, but of all the other teams, I like Australia the most and they have a legit chance head-to-head against Canada, Spain, and Greece.
Jock Landale To Lead Australia In Scoring +700
Joe Dellera: If you’re looking for another longshot, the reason I think this is interesting is that, outside of Duop Reath, there’s pretty much no other big on the Australia roster. So I think we could see an angle where the minutes are pretty stable for Landale unlike when he’s in the NBA and not playing a whole lot of minutes.
Patty Mills has historically been the leading scorer for Australia, and he’s been one of the top scorers in the whole tournament the last couple of Olympics. But Mills is getting a little bit older and there’s a little bit more guard play on this team than there was when Mills was leading the show in the past.
So I think at around +700 or longer, if you can get that for Landale to lead the team in scoring, I think it’s a pretty good option considering when we look at the top of this board, it’s not Mills, Josh Giddey is not looked at as a big-time scorer, and I think there’s a scenario where these guards are more of distributors and the team is looking in the direction of their big and that’s Landale.
Evan Fournier To Lead France In Scoring +800
Bryan Fonseca: When I looked at these odds, I saw Victor Wembanyama was -200 to lead France in scoring and was like “are you kidding me?” I get it, but Evan Fournier at +800 has enough value that it’s the bet for me here.
Fournier has led France in scoring in each of the last five international competitions. Granted, Wembanyama wasn’t in any of those five, but because Fournier has done this, you just have to factor it in and consider the value at +800, especially when considering that this is just a longshot sprinkle.
Even in the most recently competition, the World Cup where France disappointed and got knocked out early, they only played five games but Fournier got there and led the team in scoring. So despite the fact that Wembanyama is now on the team, because of how they play through Fournier and rely on his shooting a ton, I think the value is there.
France To Win A Medal +175
Joe Dellera: This is an insane number and my favorite bet of the entire Olympic tournament. I’ve seen this as low as around -165 at some sportsbooks, so to get it around +175 is just bonkers value.
This is the host country and so they already have home-court advantage. They should feel comfortable. They’ve been able to practice and stay home. Everything is in their favor from that perspective.
And this team is absolutely loaded. Obviously you have Evan Fournier and, yeah, it’s weird to lead a team with him, but you have Victor Wembanyama, you have Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, Frank Ntilikina, Bilal Coulibay, and Nando de Colo all on this team.
Also, when you look at France, I come into this tournament already with no question that they are 100% getting through their group, which consists of Germany, Japan, and Brazil. Maybe they drop a game to Germany, but I still think that’s highly unlikely.
We don’t need them to win gold. Silver or bronze will do. And the fact that they’re seemingly a lock to get out of the group stage means they just need to win one more game to get into the medal round.
So given how loaded this team is and everything they bring to the table, I love the value at +175.
Women’s Basketball
A’ja Wilson To Lead Team USA In Scoring +275
Bryan Fonseca: This is a juicy number. Wilson is the favorite here with Breanna Stewart coming in close behind her at +325. But Wilson led Team USA in scoring in the World Cup a couple of years ago and led them in scoring – tied with Brittney Griner – at the last Olympics in Tokyo.
While Griner is on the team again, she is more than likely going to be coming off the bench, and at this stage of her career probably doesn’t need to be starting anyway.
Wilson is, simply put, the best player on the best team. She is going to be relied on in crunch time just as she was in those other international competitions. She’s looking like she’s going to win WNBA MVP again this year, and she just keeps adding to her game.
The toolbox is getting a little bit deeper. The range is getting a little bit longer. Wilson is just a monster and I think that she should lead this team in scoring, so that’s the bet I like the most.
Joe Dellera: I love this bet, too. Part of why we settled on Wilson as opposed to Stewart was when we looked back a little bit … obviously things change, but the last time these players were playing together on an international stage, Wilson scored at least 14 points in every single game.
Stewart, on the other hand, would have games with single-digit points and then every now and then a game where she would explode with the higher ceiling and score like 22 points.
China To Win Group B +150 & China To Medal +333
Bryan Fonseca: Spain is the favorite to win this group, but I kind of like China here. They have legitimate size, arguably as much as any other team in this tournament.
Han Xu, Liberty fans are familiar with, was fifth in Most Improved Player voting in 2022 and has been playing overseas this season, so she has been getting ready for the Olympics and she was very effective in the World Cup.
If you’re taking this bet, you’re basically saying “I think China can beat Spain” and I think that’s realistic. China also has had a track record of success in international play. They won a silver medal in the World Cup in 2022, and the only team they lost to was Team USA, which beat them twice.
The other teams in the group in Serbia and Puerto Rico don’t pose much of a threat, so I think getting a second favorite in China here at plus money is the better choice. They have the size to bother Spain and have won at the highest level before.
Joe Dellera: If you like China to win the group, you have to at least look at them to win a medal and that’s even better odds at +333.
If China wins their group, they essentially just have to win one more game to get into a semifinal, which would guarantee them a game to win the bronze medal at worst and then you can look at alternate lines and escalators and really maximize your value.
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