USA – Australia Preview, USA – Australia Pick
| USA Odds | -239 |
| Australia Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
The U.S. Women's National Team look to lock up the top spot in Group B of the 2024 Olympic tournament on Wednesday when they face an Australian side fighting for their tournament lives.
The Americans can seal the top spot in the group with a draw after winning each of their first two matches by three goals. The latter — a 4-1 triumph over Germany on Sunday — was arguably the most impressive performance given by the USWNT since their run to the 2019 World Cup title.
Meanwhile, Australia have earned a second life after a miraculous fight from three goals down to earn a wild 6-5 victory over Zambia in their second group match. Mathematically, the Matildas could still win the group with a blowout upset over the U.S. Realistically, a second-place finish is the ceiling.
These teams have met in a couple of friendlies since, but the last competitive fixture came in the Americans' 4-3 victory over Australia in the 2020 Olympic third-place match (played in 2021).
USA Picks
Any concerns that the Americans' finishing issues in some preparatory friendlies were a feature and not a bug have been quickly put to bed in the early stages of this tournament.
Not only have the USWNT been the tournament's highest scoring team, they have scored six of their seven goals in the opening 45 minutes. And while you could be critical of the Americans' inability to add on after halftime in their 3-0 opener against Zambia, their second-half performance against Germany was — with the exception of one good chance for Germany — a case of excellent second-half game management.
Still, this group may not be as deep as previous USWNT editions. But with the the balance of manager Emma Hayes' starters going forward, it may not matter. Four of them have multiple goals contributions through two games: Mallory Swanson (3g, 1a), Trinity Rodman (1g, 1a), Sophia Smith (2g, 1a) and Lindsey Horan (0g, 2a).
That said, while the Americans deserved their victory over Germany, the margin of victory was flattering. Remove Alyssa Naeher's very early save and an extremely fluky deflection that led to Sophia Smith's second goal, and it's a nervy affair in the second half.
Australia Picks
For a second straight major tournament, the Matildas are navigating a group stage without Sam Kerr, the nation's all-time leading international scorer.
In the 2023 World Cup on home soil, there was at least the prospect of the then-29-year-old being used as a substitute in the knockout phase as she worked back from a calf injury. This time she's not on the squad after an ACL tear suffered at a January training session for Chelsea, her club side.
And while it might feel odd to harp on the void she leaves at forward after a 6-5 victory, if you watch the match back, it's hard to envision the U.S. conceding any of the goals Zambia did. Only one of those six goals came from a striker — substitute Michelle Hayman's 90th-minute winner.
Hayman is also the only striker to score in three friendly tuneups prior to the tournament. And at age 36, she's no longer a 90-minute player, though she could start after coming off the bench on Sunday.
You don't need elite strikers to score. But Australia simply won't be allowed to throw the same numbers forward against the USWNT as they did at Zambia, since the Americans are miles more organized defensively and far more ruthless on the counter.
The Matildas will have to pick their spots, and that makes striker play a lot more important.
USA – Australia
Prediction
Australia may have reached the World Cup semifinals less than a year ago on home soil. But the current version of this team isn't playing very well, with their dramatic comeback over Zambia more a case of their opponent's self-destruction.
Perhaps most troublingly, they've suffered from slow starts and are now facing an American team that has dominated the opening 45 minutes in their first two games.
I'm going to play that trend again here, betting the Americans to take a lead into halftime at a -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability. It does feel like an expensive price, but it has cashed in all four tournament games between these teams so far.
