USA – France Preview, USA – France Pick
| USA Odds | +375 |
| France Odds | -225 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
The United States Men will play their first soccer match at the Olympics in 16 years when they face host France in their group opener on Wednesday night.
The USA come into the tournament — which features U-23 rosters with up to three overage players for each squad — having qualified by winning the 2022 CONCACAF U-20 tournament.
Meanwhile, France reached the event as the host nation after qualifying for the 2020 event but failing to advance from their group.
Guinea and New Zealand are the other Group A teams, with the top two finishers from a three-match round robin advancing to the quarterfinals.
USA Picks
The U.S. has elected to use two of its three overage selections in central defense, with Atlanta United’s Miles Robinson and Nashville SC’s Walker Zimmerman set to be the leaders and most familiar faces on the 18-man roster.
Otherwise, this is decidedly a group constructed more with a focus of creating depth for the senior national team than fielding the best squad possible.
That’s part of why none of the seven players on the USMNT’s Copa America squad with Olympic eligibility are participating.
Among those to watch?
Orlando City striker Duncan Maguire has continued to be productive in his second MLS season and is likely moving on to Europe sooner than later.
Venezia attacker Tanner Tessman is widely reported to be the target of several higher tier European clubs this summer after helping his current club gain promotion back to Italy’s Serie A.
France Picks
The biggest name in France's contingent is its coach, the legendary longtime Arsenal striker Thierry Henry.
And perhaps owing to Henry's views on the sport, the French have elected to use two of their three overage call-ups at forward, with the 33-year old Alexandre Lacazette and 27-year old Jean-Philippe Mateta wearing the side’s No. 10 and No. 11 jerseys, respectively.
The latter may be one of the most in-form players in the tournament, having scored nine of his 16 league goals for Crystal Palace over his last six appearances of the season.
He will also get the chance to revive a partnership with 22-year old Michael Olise, whom Bayern Munich have already signed away from Palace this summer.
But as good as France have been in international football over the last three decades, they also have not earned much experience on the Olympic stage. The 2020 tournament was only Les Bleus’ second appearance since the tournament adopted its current age-limit format: They reached the quarterfinals in Atlanta in 1996.
USA – France
Prediction
Predicting and handicapping Olympic soccer on the men’s side is extremely difficult because there is no reliable track record. All the rosters are somewhat improvised, and it’s never entirely clear which federations are taking the tournament seriously.
That said, there is one interesting pattern that applies here: No host nation has won its opening match since the tournament adopted its current format in 1996. Host sides have also drawn the last four openers, including Great Britain in 2012 and eventual winners Brazil in 2016.
Perhaps the pressure of hosting looms large early on with teams that have little experience with tournaments of this magnitude. Or perhaps it's also a function of the schedule, with host teams often playing their most difficult group opponents first. Either way, it's a pronounced enough pattern to take note of.
And if the U.S. can find a way to earn a point, it is much more likely to do so in a lower scoring contest. It's France who have the better attacking weapons.
So while I certainly wouldn’t advise investing a lot of money, I’m sprinkling a small wager on a parlay tying a moneyline draw to a under 2.5 at +500 and an implied 16.7% probability.
