USA vs Germany Odds, Pick
| USA Odds | +100 |
| Germany Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -154 |
The U.S. Women's National Team will try book their first place at a major final since 2019 when they face group-stage foe Germany in Tuesday’s first semifinal.
The Americans romped to a 4-1 win over the Germans on match day 2 of group play, but the gravity of the occasion suggests things will be tighter in the rematch.
The U.S. required extra time to fend off a strong challenge from Japan in a 1-0 quarterfinal win decided by Trinity Rodman’s brilliant effort in the added minutes of the first half of extra time.
The Germans prevailed over Canada on penalties in their quarterfinal following a 0-0 draw.
USA Preview: Renewed Unity
Manager Emma Hayes has clearly brought a renewed unity and identity to a U.S. quad that has undergone a generational transformation following a round of 16 exit from the World Cup last year.
But this group is a long way from a completed work as the last two games have shown.
Both Australia in their final group stage match and Japan in the quarterfinal have exposed a couple of U.S. weaknesses: A vulnerability to a team willing to play a low block and a lack of confidence from Hayes in her group’s depth.
The difference between the two games was Japan offering a far more credible threat on the counter.
Despite a compact schedule that is more grueling in rest and recovery terms than the World Cup, Hayes waited 90 minutes to make her first substitution against, and only used three total.
The gamble of keeping her weary stars on the field paid off, with Rodman scoring a goal of the kind of class only a few players in the world possess. But there could certainly be hangover effects from the kind of effort the performance required.
Germany Preview: Energy Down?
The good news for the Americans is that Germany had to exert just as much energy to reach this point in taking Canada to penalties following a 0-0 draw.
And they also spent a lot more time defending their own box than the U.S., with 17 of Canada’s 23 total shots coming from inside the penalty area.
But despite the eventual margin of defeat in their first match against the U.S., the Germans should look back at the game tape knowing the difference between the sides wasn’t as wide as the score.
An enormous early save from American ‘keeper Alissa Naeher and a fluky deflection resulting in Sophia Smith’s goal just before halftime were the difference between the first half finishing 3-1 instead of 2-2.
Despite that, there’s some reason to be skeptical of the Germans in attack in particular. Two of their three goals against Argentina came from set pieces. Their lone goal against the U.S. was on a speculative effort from distance that Naeher usually saves.
USA vs Germany Betting Prediction
Hayes’ USWNT was a bit of a mystery coming into the tournament, which was perhaps one reason the Germans were willing to be so attack-minded.
Now that there’s some game tape, I think a more conservative German approach is likely in this one.
While I’m not entirely sure the U.S. will be able to solve it over 90 minutes, I do think it’s likely they’ll be the ones exerting the majority of the pressure.
The Americans have out-cornered all of their opponents by at least two — including Germany by five in their previous meeting — and I’m playing that trend to continue.
So I’m betting the USWNT on a corner spread of -1.5 at +100 and an exactly 50% implied probability.
