USA – Japan Preview, USA – Japan Pick
| USA Odds | -165 |
| Japan Odds | +430 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -159 / +118 |
The U.S. women’s national team looks to take a step closer to a record fifth Olympic gold medal when it meets old nemesis Japan in Saturday’s quarterfinal.
The Americans took the maximum possible points from the group stage in their first major tournament under manager Emma Hayes, most recently defeating Australia 2-1 on Wednesday.
Japan’s only loss came in its opener against reigning World Champions Spain, before it rebounded with wins over Brazil and Nigeria.
These teams have plenty of familiarity, and most famously met in the 2011 and 2015 World Cup finals. The Japanese won the 2011 clash on penalties, with the Americans gaining revenge with a 5-2 triumph four years later.
USA Picks
The Americans entered their group finale against Australia requiring only a draw to seal the top spot in the group, and were facing a Matildas squad that was content to sit deep and focus on limiting the USWNT attack.
The result was a marginally more difficult road to victory than in their first two group wins, and again highlighted that this particular version of the USWNT is perhaps better equipped for opponents who are willing to open up the game.
In their 3-0 win over Zambia to open the tournament, Hayes’ group also saw their rate of chance creation decrease once Zambia was reduced to 10 players. Then there was that 0-0 draw against Costa Rica in the Americans’ final preparatory friendly on July 16 in which the Ticas more or less parked the bus.
Four players have multiple goal contributions for the United States, but veteran Rose Lavelle is still looking for her first goal or assist. She’s averaged 66 minutes across three tournament starts after entering the competition with fitness concerns.
Japan Picks
If Japan’s group stage performances are an indication, the Americans may be facing an opponent whose approach will fall closer to Australia’s than to that of Zambia (with 11 players) or Germany.
Manager Futoshi Isheda’s group has played a back five in most of its matches in 2024, including in the final two group games, and also had less than half of the possession in all three of its group matches. They had the ball only 25% of the time against Spain after leading early.
But that can shift rather easily into a more ball-dominant 3-4-3 as it did through most of the 2023 World Cup. Japan played some of the most eye-catching soccer of that tournament before suffering a 2-1 loss to Sweden in the quarterfinals.
Perhaps Japan can recapture that level of form in the Olympic knockout stages. But even in their current state, they’ve played three extremely competitive matches against quality opposition, winning two of them and offering more of a threat on the counter than Australia did.
USA – Japan
Prediction
The USA’s win over Australia should provide Hayes’ young squad a bit of a blueprint of how to solve an opponent playing a low block in a high stakes game. That doesn’t mean it will get a lot easier.
The Americans haven’t kept a clean sheet in this tournament against an opponent that finished the match with 11 players, and Japan has proven capable of being efficient with its chances in this tournament. The outcome of this game — as is so often in knockout phase football — will probably hinge on a couple of key plays.
So the wager I like here is a same-game parlay on both teams to score and the total to land Under 4.5 goals at +128 odds and an implied 43.9% probability.
It’s cashed in all three of Japan’s games so far. And this new version of the USWNT still doesn't have the depth or seasoning to make a big goal outburst likely, even if they are playing decidedly better than the veteran-laden team that crashed out of the 2023 World Cup in the round of 16.
