USA vs Brazil Odds
| USA Odds | -112 |
| Brazil Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +135 / -175 |
The U.S. Women's National Team can win a record fifth Olympic gold medal — and first since 2012 — when they face longtime nemesis Brazil in Saturday's final.
This will be the ninth meeting in a major international tournament between these sides, with the U.S. winning six of the previous eight. But the last of those came 13 years ago, when the U.S. advanced from a quarterfinal on penalties following a 2-2 draw.
Who will prevail this time? My USA vs. Brazil prediction is below.
USA
One of the most obvious differences between first-year manager Emma Hayes and previous boss Vlatko Andonovski is that Hayes has quickly settled on a regular starting XI.
That can have obvious benefits in terms of providing consistency and gaining an understanding of roles and tactics. But it should also lead bettors to ask whether the Americans will be at a disadvantage in terms of recovery after playing consecutive extra-time games.
Half of Hayes' starting 10 field players have played at least five full 90-minute sessions over the compact tournament, including Trinity Rodman and Sophia Smith, who each have three goals to lead the Americans. In fairness to Smith, all five of those player are age 30 or younger, and Rodman and Smith are both in their early 20s, which should make their particular recoveries easier.
And if fatigue were wearing on the Americans, it certainly wasn't apparent against Germany. The USWNT's best portions of play all came arguably after the hour mark, in part because they appeared to solve Germany's defense by attacking more directly as the game wore on.
On thing seems certain: 24-year-old Naomi Girma will play every moment of this tournament unless she encounters an injury. The center back has been arguably the Americans' best player and the best defender of the tournament after she first took the global stage last year and played every minute of the 2023 World Cup.
Brazil
Brazil wasn't anyone's favorite to each this stage from the other half of the bracket after backing their way into the knockout phase, despite losing twice in group play. Adding to those woes was seeing the legendary Marta suspended for the first two matches of the knockout stage after a red card late in their group-stage loss to Spain.
But it's been without the 38-year-old that the Selecao have turned in their two best performances. And maybe that's understandable given how this team has played primarily on the counter in the business end of the tournament, holding only an average of 28% possession in its past three matches.
As arguably the greatest player in the history of the women's game, Marta most easily draws comparisons to Lionel Messi in the men's game. But maybe it's possible, at this stage in her career, that the better parallel is Cristiano Ronaldo, who proved to be a major defensive liability in Portugal's failed Euro 2024 campaign earlier this summer.
Marta does not carry the same off-field baggage as Ronaldo, but it seems reasonable that she can leave her side defending 10-on-11 at times if she's playing all 90 minutes repeatedly. Of course, the benefit of her suspension is that if she is involved from the start, her legs should be fresh after 11 days between games.
Unlike the U.S., none of Brazil's field players started all five games. Gabi Portilho, Brazil's only multi-goal scorer in the tournament, has played only 304 minutes, an average workload for manager Arthur Elias' preferred players in this competition.
USA vs Brazil
Prediction
What really jumps out to me is how Marta's involvement could open an opportunity. It's a short sample, but I believe there's reason to think Brazil — as currently constituted — may be better suited to use her off the bench. And if Elias makes the bold move not to start her, I could see the line moving further in the Americans' direction, which could lead me to play Brazil on some sort of handicap.
But Marta or not, I don't think Brazil's pace and ability on the counter will trouble Girma and the American defense in the way it troubled Spain. And for as good as Brazil has looked in the knockout stage, they also benefitted from two exceptional breaks early in their quarterfinal and semifinal games. Against France, it was a saved penalty. Against Spain, it was an early own-goal in their favor.
If the Brazilians don't get that kind of break again, I think it's going to be very difficult for them to find a goal during 90 minutes against an American team that has proven plenty comfortable and patient as a ball-dominant team.
So, I'm playing Brazil not to score in the 90 minutes at +125 and an implied 44.4% probability. Brazil had only scored three goals prior to its semifinal upset, and the Americans have only conceded two — none in the knockout phase. I might consider cashing out pregame though if it turns out Marta isn't in the lineup.
I'd also consider backing the U.S. to win to nil, but the Americans' fatigue concerns me enough to go slightly more conservatively here and allow the possibility of a 0-0 90-minute draw.
