Team USA is the biggest favorite in all of basketball this week — except for maybe the other, not as historically dominant, Team USA.
The women's team is as dominant as people are clamoring for the men's team to be in terms of body of work, but in these Olympics, even they've been tested.
Japan hung around for a half before the eventual pull-away, Belgium was within single digits in the fourth quarter, and Germany was in the game until a late third quarter run blew it open.
So what could this year's Cinderella Story of Olympic basketball do? Well let's talk about it more and get right into our preview with my Team USA vs Nigeria pick for Wednesday, August 7.
USA Preview: Keep Eyes on Wilson, Stewart
Team USA did cover 19.5 vs. Japan, didn't cover 22.5 vs. Belgium, and didn't cover 19.5 vs. Germany (hook!), and against Nigeria, they're -27.5 as of this writing.
In three first quarters, they're only a +4 in point differential — they were up on Japan seven after one, trailed Germany by three and tied Belgium. Team USA is 2-1 against the spread in second quarters having outscored Germany 25-10 and 23-15 against Belgium. They only led Japan by four.
Team USA is 2-1 against the spread in third quarters, though they blitzed Japan and Germany by 11 points each.
Player prop wise, the team is all over the place, as is expected in a tournament. On A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart points, both of him have gone in two of three.
Nigeria Preview: Don't Sleep On Kalu
Nigeria is the best story in Olympic basketball.
They were hovering around +700 or +800 to win their group, the longest odds by far, and it was the most difficult foursome of the women's bracket.
Nigeria losing every game wouldn't have been a surprise, but instead, they became the first African nation to reach a quarterfinals in Olympic basketball.
They did it by beating Australia as 24.5-point underdogs, taking down the Opals 75-62. Then after losing 75-54 to France, they beat a desperate Canada team — the most disappointing other than China — 79-70 while being six-point dogs.
Nigeria hasn't seen anything like Team USA yet, but it's a house money, zero pressure game for them.
Ezinne Kalu has been their rising star, scoring 19.3 points per game for a team-high, recording 21-19-18 in order, so it's been a steady output. She's also shooting 47 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from three, making 7-of-17.
Team USA vs. Nigeria Pick: Take The Over On Wilson's Points
Team USA-Nigeria Prediction
The only pre-game bet I like is A'ja Wilson to go over 20.5 points at -106, and it's more of a lean. The bet I really want is USA to cover in the third quarter if they're off to another slow start, so watch that in the live market. It'll likely be near double digits, but they've cleared it twice. If they start hot with a "OK, now this is for real," type of effort, I'd probably refrain from a third quarter bet.
Team USA started Sabrina Ionescu and Jewell Loyd over Diana Taurasi and Chelsea Gray to start the third quarter last game. My guess is that's baked into the books given that DT and Gray aren't listed, and the total team over is 92.5, which they only cleared against little ass Japan (they're small!).
LEAN: A'ja Wilson Over 20.5 Points (-106)
WATCH: Team USA 3Q Spread Live Bet If Team Starts Slow Offensively.
