USA vs Serbia Pick, Preview and Prediction

USA vs Serbia Pick and Prediction

Team USA faces off against Nikola Jokic and Serbia in this Olympic semifinal game, which is the third matchup between these teams in this Olympic cycle. Team USA has dominated the previous matchups and this line now sits at 17.5 for this game. Can Serbia keep it close or are they destined to watch the USA advance to the gold medal game?

Let's preview the matchup and get to my USA vs Serbia prediction on Thursday, August 8.

Team USA has continued to play a fairly deep rotation throughout the Olympics but the clear top dogs on this team still is LeBron James. James runs the offense and the starting lineup while Coach Kerr has remained steadfast that Kevin Durant will play off of the bench.

Team USA has yet to see much resistance at all throughout the Olympics besides the Nikola Jokic minutes from the knockout round where Jokic played Team USA even in 31 minutes while the rest of the team was -26 in 9 minutes. As a result, I think the rotations that Team USA have used are not truly indicative of the pecking order of what would be an actual close game. Here, I think we should see extended minutes from LeBron James, Jrue Holiday, and Kevin Durant – three players who not only have been managed but have not needed to play extra time.

One player I expect to see have his minutes cut into is Anthony Edwards. Although Edwards has been elite, he's doing so on seemingly unsustainable efficiency. Despite playing the third-fewest minutes per game (17.7) he's scoring 16.7 ppg on 63.3% shooting including an absurd 53.8% from 3. Much of this is because he's been given an extended run/reigns on the offense in these blowouts. Despite this game having a spread of 17.5 points, I do not think that is indicative of the quality between these two teams. I'd play under 12.5 points (+105 Bet365).

Serbia was without Nikola Jovic last game due to illness and his anticipated return would help their depth for this contest. The key to this game for Serbia will be surviving the non-Jokic minutes.

A major factor for why they struggled so much in the 110-84 knockout round loss to the Americans was they simply had two of the widest outcomes in 3 point shooting. Serbia shot just 24.3% while Team USA shot an absurd 56.3% from beyond the arc. Serbia has shot 33.8% from 3 since that game while Team USA is at 39.7%. While Team USA takes more and still shoots at a higher percentage, that difference is not nearly as significant. In the 26-point loss, the entire difference was 27 points from 3 point range.

Serbia has the personnel to bother Team USA as well. Jokic is the ultimate mismatch problem for any team while Bogdan Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic can both fill it up from beyond the arc while creating their own shots if needed. Serbia plays excellent team basketball, and those fundamentals are something that can disrupt Team USA.

Team USA vs Serbia Pick: Take An Alt of Serbia +11.5

Team USA-Serbia Prediction

This line is sitting at 17.5 after being listed at 12.5 when these two teams met in the Knockout round. Serbia jumped out to an early lead but were absolutely torched by Kevin Durant and LeBron James who simply could not miss.

This Serbian team has had the ability to not only ramp up, but to play two games against the United States to develop a game plan here. 17.5 is too many points for the US to lay, and I'll grab the points with the road dog and take an alt of Serbia +11.5 (+200 BetMGM).

USA vs Serbia Pick: Serbia +17.5