Team USA is going for consecutive gold medal No. 8, on Sunday, and I'm backing the United States to get the job done against France — especially in the first half — in my USA vs France prediction for the women's gold medal game.
The last time the USA women won anything but gold was 1992, the year of the Dream Team on the men's side. For some perspective, the WNBA was five years away from its first season.
On the other side, France hasn't yet won a gold medal in Olympic basketball. The men have three silver medals, and the women have a silver from 2012 and a bronze from 2021.
Team USA is heavily favored, but could France actually do this at home?
Let's preview the matchup and get straight into my USA vs France prediction for Sunday's Women's Olympics Basketball gold medal game, and why I believe the ladies of Team USA will set the tone very early in this matchup in the first half.
USA vs France Prediction: Take USA on First Half Spread
USA vs France Odds
- USA vs France point spread: USA -15.5
- USA vs France total: Over/under 156 points scored by both teams combined
- USA vs France moneyline: USA -1450 (bet $145 to win $10); France +850 (bet $10 to win $85)
The United States is a 15.5-point favorite (-15.5) on the full-game spread for the gold medal game, with the over/under currently at 156 total points scored. Team USA is a -1450 favorite to win the gold, while France is +850 to pull off the upset.
Gold Medal Game Prediction for USA vs France
- USA to Cover the First Half Spread
Be sure to shop around when tailing my USA vs France pick for the women's gold medal game. I bet this originally at USA -7.5, and the market is quickly moving against us. Some books have this at USA -9 for the first half spread early on Sunday morning, but there are still -8.5s to be had in the market, which is as far as I would comfortably bet this.
Bryan Fonseca's Women's Gold Medal Game Preview for USA vs France
USA Preview for Women's Gold Medal Game Pick: Lineup Changes Matter
We've known that Team USA should win these games, but the process in getting there has been difficult to project.
What matters is that they're here, now starting Jackie Young over Diana Taurasi, and fresh off an 85-64 win over a surging Australia team, who was hardly competitive following the opening quarter.
The Americans also played the early contest on Thursday, finishing up about two hours before France and Belgium tipped off — which went into overtime.
Team USA played Napheesa Collier 24 minutes, nobody more than that. Breanna Stewart was capped at just under 23 minutes, and A'ja Wilson only logged about 21.
The Americans, again, didn't shoot a ton of threes but they didn't need to, and they were efficient when they did, going 7-for-17 from deep and hitting 41.2 percent.
Team USA did cover against Australia (was 17.5) and also did in the first half, which was 9.5 — they led 45-27 at halftime.
Jackie Young, notably, hit 6-of-8 and capped off her day with 14 points, two short of Stewart's team-high 16.
France Preview for Women's Gold Medal Game Pick: Williams is Key For France
France was just in an emotional slugfest with Belgium, who pushed them to the brink in what concluded as an 81-75 overtime contest, in favor of the home team.
France won the game despite shooting just 29.9 percent from the floor as a team and 22.6 percent from deep — 7-for-31 — which accounted for 40.2 percent of their attempts overall. Belgium shot 44 percent from the field and 30 percent from three, but France was a more proficient 28-of-32 from the line compared to Belgium's 23-of-29.
Leading the way was Gabby Williams, who has just been a consistent source of production and energy for France on both ends of the floor, recording a 2024 Olympic-best 18 points despite her lowest shooting percent of the tournament at 38, but converted all seven free throw attempts.
Valeriane Ayayi is also coming off an Olympic-high 17 points, her only double-digit scoring game of this run.
Elsewhere, Marinne Johannes continued her streaky play, jumping from 24 points to six, and shooting 1-for-10 after going 8-for-14.
Notably, France also covered, as they entered the contest favored by around four points.
My USA vs France Prediction, Best Bet for Women's Gold Medal Game
USA vs France Pick: Bet Team USA Women on 1H Spread
Team USA-France Prediction
Team USA has covered in first halves better than whole games. And they've led at halftime by at least eight points in every game, with only Belgium being even that close. I credit my guy Joe Dellera with hitting this first, but Team USA -7.5 in the first half seems like the bet to make. It may widely be -8.5 by the time this drops, and that's probably where I'd leave it. I also gave Team USA to win the quarters 3-1 at +155 a look via Bet 365, but undecided if that's worthy of logging in the app.
But on the first half, Team USA had a lighter workload against Australia and France tipped off two hours later, engaging in a highly emotional contest, and took Belgium to overtime before winning. There's an easy pathway to seeing USA getting off to a hot start, but of course, anything could happen in single elimination basketball.
