Joe Dellera

Joe Dellera's Picks

Today
My Game Guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/knicks-vs-cavaliers-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-friday-february-21-qs
96
22
The Pelicans face off against the Dallas Mavericks tonight in their return to action following the All-Star Break. Dallas continues to survive while being extremely thin on the interior after injuries to Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively. This sets up well for Zion. Zion has been a wrecking ball when healthy this season. He is averaging 24.4 ppg in 28 minutes. He was even better over his last 10 with a 26.5 ppg scoring average. Without both Dejounte and Brandon Ingram, his scoring jumps and that’s a significant factor in this scoring rise of late. Without both of them he is right in line with that 26.5 average. Zion is extremely well rested for this one coming off the ASB, and I expect him to have fresh legs and put on a show.
115
25
Any SGA under is terrifying but this is the spot to fade him - in a game with plenty of blowout potential. One of the biggest swings for SGA has been the minutes he plays alongside of Chet Holmgren. When SGA plays with Chet, he has exceeded this line just once in 13 games this season with a 35-point performance against the second-fastest Paced team in the league, the Atlanta Hawks. The reason is simple. SGA sees his scoring drop from 47.7 points per 100 without Chet to 34.9 with him. While that is still an insane number of points, it's clear that he cedes some of the offensive burden to Chet. Now that Chet is returning post-ASB and his minutes crossed 30 in the last game, we should expect any minutes limitations to be lowered or completely removed. This takes some Usage away from Shai and it also clogs the paint a bit more with Chet and Hartenstein playing some minutes next to each other. This game has a 15 point spread. When OKC has won by double digits this season, SGA averages 31 ppg and has gone under this line in 67% of games. It's sweaty, but let's take this under.
90
19
The Warriors face off against the Kings following the All-Star Break and I’m looking at Steph Curry to set the tone for Golden State. When he’s played alongside of Jimmy Butler, he is averaging 36.3 PA with the one miss at 30 against a staunch Houston Rockets’ Defense. He has upside in both scoring and assists and could see spikes in either stat with Jimmy’s ability to drive and kick to set Curry up while also capitalizing on Jimmy’s downhill ability as a cutter. I’ll back Curry in this spot.
115
23
Pending
De’Aaron Fox to record 15+ Assists in any regular season game +1400
0.5u
Under Blockbuster Trades
30
11
Julius Randle 5+ Assists per game+100
1u
27
14
Jalen Brunson o6.5 Assists per Game-115
1u
40
14
Chris Paul over 6.9 Assists per game-115
1u
24
14
LaMelo Ball over 3.3 3s per Game-130
1u
22
12
Victor Wembanyama o11.5 Rebounds per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
32
13
Luka Doncic over 9.2 Assists per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
23
14
Portland Trailblazers to participate in West Play In+5500
0.25u
2/5
28
7
Michael Porter Jr over 2.8 3s per Game - 24/25 Regular Season-115
1.5u
Relogging, not doubling down. The Denver Nuggets will be adjusting to life without KCP this season and I expect a boost for MPJ. MPJ has averaged 2.7, 3.0, and 2.8 3s per game in the three healthy seasons he’s played in despite the Nuggets playing at a Bottom 6 Pace in the league in each of those seasons (per NBA Advanced Stats). There’s reason to believe in a change here with the acquisition of Russell Westbrook along with the injection of Christian Braun or Julian Strawther into the starting lineup instead of KCP. This is a significantly faster and more athletic rotation and Denver will be able to play at an overall faster Pace. Further, those players are not nearly as good as KCP from shooting beyond the arc. MPJ will need to absorb a greater number of 3 point attempts to maintain the team’s spacing. He is a deadeye shooter with a 41.0% mark from behind the arc throughout his career. Even if we see a decline in efficiency due to an uptick in volume, 2.8 3s per game is too low for MPJ. I’ll take over 2.8 3s per game.
20
14
Ja Morant Season Assists Leader+13000
0.1u
Discussed on Buckets
20
8
Lamelo Ball Season Assists Leader+4000
0.1u
21
10
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 4+ APG +350
1u
Team Specials on DK - NO Giddey this year and they replaced him with lower usage guys in Caruso and Hartenstein. - In 2 games w/o Giddey, Williams averaged 22.5 ppg - Mins w/ and w/o Giddey last season - 25.554 points per 100 poss w/ Giddey - 35.029 w/o Giddey - About half an assist bump w/o Giddey and averaged 3.5 per game last year
23
13
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 12+ RPG+265
0.5u
18
9
Victor Wembanyama to avg 5+ Blocks per Game+370
0.25u
Under player averages Averaged 4.455 post ASB last season
21
10
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 25+ PPG, C. PAUL TO AVERAGE 8+ APG, SA SPURS TO WIN 40+ GAMES+800
0.12u
22
9
V. WEMBANYAMA TO LEAD THE LEAGUE IN RPG, SA SPURS TO WIN 35+ GAMES +1500
0.1u
19
12
Luka DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ RPG, L. DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ APG+1000
0.1u
Luka averaged this post ASB last season
24
12
KAT 22+ ppg +200
0.25u
🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast
13
8
KAT 24+ ppg +500
0.1u
17
9
Michael Porter Jr 20+ ppg+475
0.1u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
20
10
Andre Drummond Regular Season Rebound Leader+7500
0.1u
With you @TurveyBets
24
11
KAT Regular Season Rebound Leader+5500
0.1u
26
10
LeBron James to average 8+ Rebounds per Game+500
0.25u
19
12
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 20+ PPG, OKC THUNDER TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP (+10000000 DK)
1u
Team Specials on DK - This is a “free” boost on OKC to win the title in my opinion, he averaged 19.1 last season primarily w/ Giddey and if he DOES NOT average 20+ ppg, it would dramatically affect my opinion of OKC anyway ***- This is how I'm betting OKC to win the title***
25
13
Mike Budenholzer NBA Coach of the Year+1400
0.25u
16
Futures
Golden State Warriors o41.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16
13
Boston Celtics u58.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
46
12
Orlando Magic u47.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
48
13
Memphis Grizzlies o45.5-115
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
38
15
Keegan Murray+10000
2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player
0.1u
🎙️ Discussed on the Cash That Podcast Bet on 8/21
62
18
Memphis Grizzlies o49.5+150
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
32
8
Memphis Grizzlies o54.5+600
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.1u
28
8
Mitchell Robinson+30000
2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
0.1u
I am ready to get hurt again, and by I, I mean Mitch
34
17
Bennedict Mathurin+2500
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.5u
Play down to +1500 I like Mathurin's opportunity here as a guy that plays primarily off the bench. He's a microwave scorer and even though he's coming off of injury, he can easily score 17-18 ppg this season. He had better splits post ASG and at home, those are things that tend to regulate as players get more seasoned and watch more tape.
26
13
Payton Pritchard+10000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.05u
For Pritchard, he continues to improve and Boston just destroys teams. He could sneakily score even 13 ppg this year and that's assuming perfect health from Boston who is coming off a Championship. It's worth a sprinkle.
20
12
San Antonio Spurs o39.5+200
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
21
9
Bogdan Bogdanovic+15000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.1u
11/18
33
12
Zach Edey+5500
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.15u
12/14
31
16
Tyrese Maxey+2500
2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year
0.5u
1/15
19
12
Zaccharie Risacher+10000
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.1u
1/27 - discussed on Buckets, think it’s worth a sprinkle here
48
14
Dalton Knecht+20000
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.1u
Buckets 2/3
38
11
Malik Beasley+1200
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.25u
Buckets 2/3
34
8
San Antonio Spurs (Yes)+475
2024-25 NBA To Make The Playoffs
0.25u
Buckets 2/3
82
13
Jalen Williams+7000
2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
0.15u
2/20
10
9
Ivica Zubac+7500
2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
0.15u
2/20
10
7
Los Angeles Clippers+240
2024-25 NBA Pacific Division - To Win
1u
2/20
25
12
Past Performance
Yesterday5-4-056%
0.05u
Last 7 Days13-24-134%
-5.22u
Last 30 Days83-98-944%
14.12u
All Time3648-4376-14945%
228.97u
Top Leagues
NBA2656-3250-12644%
187.71u
WNBA153-156-249%
17.44u
OLYMPIC_BASKETBALL50-76-040%
17.13u
NFL214-289-742%
5.56u
MLB471-433-1151%
4.97u
NCAAB56-53-051%
1.09u
UFL0-1-00%
-0.10u
World Cup0-1-00%
-0.15u
ATP1-2-033%
-0.17u
UFC0-2-00%
-0.40u
NHL9-17-035%
-0.94u
NASCAR2-16-011%
-0.97u
Golf0-8-00%
-1.55u
NCAAF16-21-043%
-1.76u