I have the Eagles favored by 3.6, putting the Commanders' win odds at 36.6%. That's a big enough gap from the market for me to bite. Would want to get 6 or 6.5 in order to take the spread instead.

Have this at 50.98. That's even with the model showing tons of respect to the Eagles' defense. The Commanders were able to move the ball against the Eagles' defense in the regular season, and they've been hyper-dynamic on late downs through two playoff games.

Have the Bills favored by 0.8 points here, even with a decent bump for the Chiefs and Playoff Pat Mahomes. We've just seen the Bills tap into explosiveness more than the Chiefs, and at some point, that should matter.

Betting overs for Chiefs games has bit me this year, but they should get more pushback here than at any other point. The defense didn't blow me away against the Texans, nor did the Bills'. Have this total at 51.5