PropBetGuy

Once again, betting on his stuff. Jays are tough, but I’m expecting a weaker lineup for a day game after a night game (on a getaway day).

Actually playing a bit of a narrative here, as Mayo has said they need to scheme Douglas into the game after he only has two catches through two games. It’s a revamped receiver room, but Douglas led the team in receiving last season, and leads the receivers in routes run through two games. Jets secondary is great, but Douglas lining up in the slot 83% of the time means he’ll avoid Sauce and Reed. And it’s likely that he’ll garner screens or other high percentage targets.

This game really should suit Diggs. He’s primarily running routes from the slot (62%). Only 9 catches through 2 games (6 targets in each). He’s been the quick-hitter low aDOT guy (5.4, compared to Nico 13.6 and Tank 14.4). The Vikings are blitz heavy - the 6th highest rate, and garnering pressure at the 2nd highest rate. Blitzing and pressure dating back to last season lowers Stroud’s aDOT and time to throw lessen (as one would expect). The Vikings allowing an avg aDOT of 6.4 yards (8th lowest) after 7.3 last season (7th lowest). Deebo and WanDale - the two lower aDOT options amongst WR on their teams, had 8 and 6 catches in the Vikings two games (both with double digit targets). Mixon is banged up, even if he plays, it’s easy to see the Texans going pass-heavy. Diggs has run a route on 95%+ of Stroud’s dropbacks. I have him closer to 8 targets in this one. And yeah, he should be pumped to be playing back in Minnesota for the first time.

Robinson under in 1/2 (miss was 15). 5.5 aDOT is the exact same as last season (under in 10/15). Brutal spot against the Browns secondary who’ve only allowed 6 receptions of 14 targets to WRs in the slot this season.

Dating back to 2020, he’s over this line in 11/L12 coming off a loss (injuries excluded). Obviously his schemes are different now, but after the Ravens dropped two straight, and now get a spot in Dallas, I expect Lamar to take matters into his own hands. The Cowboys are a tough matchup for the Ravens passing game, and Jackson should be able to use his speed against DAL’s mediocre linebacker room. Plus, the Cowboys run game is pretty bad right now, which leads to more passing. More passing leads to shorter possessions, and in turn, more plays for the Ravens offense.

Over in 2/2 as is, and SF already with a lack of reliable targets with no Deebo or CMC.

Williams is over in both games. He’s third in the NFL in air yards, with 127 and 129 in his two games (per FTN Fantasy), and drawing a 23% target share from Jared Goff. He gets the Cardinals, who were dead last in DVOA against deep passes last season (FTN) and 6th worst so far this season. Should be a back and forth game where both teams are airing it out.