Happy Midterm Election Day!
We have covered the politics betting market extensively over the past several months, and we just released the closing odds for almost all races being decided tonight.
But there's more: oddsmakers was kind enough to supply us with betting percentages for several key races, so let's highlight some interesting ones.
2018 US House of Representatives Election – Majority Outcome, Betting Percentages
The Democrats are currently at 75.0% implied probability (-300 odds) to win the House. Bettors are backing them at a 61.8% rate. That's lower than the percentage of bettors backing the Republican favorites in the Senate, which exceeds their odds to win.
2018 US Senate Election – Majority Outcome, Betting Percentages
Republicans have an 81.8% chance to retain control of the Senate (-450 odds), and a slightly higher number of bettors (88.3%) are wagering that will happen.
Now that we've gotten the big-picture odds out the way, let's jump to the most-publicized Senate race of the 2018 Midterms: Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz in Texas.
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Texas, Betting Percentages
Cruz, whose odds translate to an 80.0% chance of winning, is getting just about that number of bets at 80.1%. This will be the most-watched race of the evening certainly, but it seems bettors are very confident in Cruz keeping his seat.
2018 US Senate Election Winner – North Dakota, Betting Percentages
Democratic incumbent Heidi Heitkamp, who is trying to hold on to her Senate seat in the red state of North Dakota, has seen her odds drop over the past several months.
The odds imply she currently has a 22.2% chance of winning, and bettors have been hammering the other side, betting on her opponent, Republican nominee Kevin Cramer, at a 94.6% clip.
Interestingly, there are a couple underdogs in specific races who have received a supermajority of bets.
Here are some that stand out:
- Republican Senate candidate in Wisconsin, Leah Vukmir, has received 80.4% of the bets as a sizable underdog (+1000 odds, 9.1% chance). It's unclear how many total bets has taken on this specific prop.
- Democratic House candidate in NY 27, Nate McMurray, who is trying to unseat Republican Chris Collins, has a 26.7% chance to win (+275 odds) but has received 77.1% of the bets.
- Two-thirds of bettors are banking on the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, John James, to win as a +700 underdog (12.5% chance).
- Democratic House candidate in IA 4, J.D. Scholten, who is trying to unseat Republican Steve King, is getting 84.2% of the action as a 5-1 longshot (16.7% implied probability).
One more interesting race: Democratic Senate nominee in Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema, has seen her odds move up and down in recent days and now sits at even money (50% implied probability) to win. She's has received just 20.4% of the bets.
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Arizona, Betting Percentages
