Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It's the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Arkansas to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state's delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina's primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
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The candidates will compete for 31 total delegates in Arkansas, which makes up about 0.8% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -333 odds (bet $333 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 57.2%.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight is a little less sure of Biden's odds, giving him a lower 45% chance to win a majority of delegates. They are more bullish on the chances of Bernie Sanders, who is at a 28% chance in their model.
Sanders is second in the betting market, too, although Betfair gives him just a 21.3% implied probability of winning. Former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg is in a close third at +300 odds — a 18.6% implied probability of winning. FiveThirtyEight forecasts Biden to win 11 of the 31 delegates, with Sanders and Bloomberg each getting nine on average. Biden is likely to win, but the outcome in terms of total delegates won might be very small.
See the full Arkansas primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Arkansas Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -333 means that if you bet $333 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +250 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $250.
- Joe Biden: -333, 57.2% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +250, 21.3% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +300, 18.6% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.5% implied probability
