| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -300 | 70.9% |
| Republicans | +225 | 29.1% |
Odds as of Wednesday, April 1 and via European sportsbook Ladbrokes. If you’re new to betting, -300 odds mean a $300 bet would net $100 with a win. You can also covert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Note that the implied probabilities are vig-free.
In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats were able to win back control of the House of Representatives, gaining a net +41 seats that November. Those elections had the highest voter turnout since 1914, and barring the current health crisis expanding into the winter, we'll likely have high participation in 2020 given the current political climate.
And according to European betting markets, Democrats are currently likely to retain their House majority. Ladbrokes list the Democrats as -300 favorites, which gives them a juice-free implied probability of over 70%.
Of note, representatives serve just two-year terms, which means all 435 seats are up for grabs every two years. For contrast, senators serve six years at at time, which means only 1/3 of the senate seats are available every two years. As a result, the balance of power can shift much more quickly in the House than in the Senate, although books think things will stay the same this November.
Speaking of the Senate, European books currently peg that race and the White House as near 50-50 propositions.
It's an uncertain time in the United States right now due to the coronavirus outbreak, which makes predicting anything in the future tough. It remains to be seen where the economy will be at this fall, which obviously will greatly affect whether Republicans hold power or whether Democrats win it back.
