Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It's the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Oklahoma to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state's delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former VP Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina's primary. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
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The candidates will compete for 37 total delegates in Oklahoma, which makes up about 1% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently the favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -137 odds (bet $137 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 48.3%.
Oklahoma is actually one of the few states on Super Tuesday without a favorite of 50% or higher. In second behind Biden is Sanders, who is at just +163, or a 31.8% implied probability. Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn't far behind at +400 (16.7%), and then it drops significantly to Elizabeth Warren and then significantly again to Tulsi Gabbard.
Politics site FiveThirtyEight largely agrees it's more of a toss-up than other states, as it gives front-runner Biden just a 55% chance of securing the most delegates. It actually has Bloomberg as the second-most likely winner at 29%, followed by Sanders at 23%.
See the full Oklahoma primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Oklahoma Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -137 means that if you bet $137 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +163 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $163.
- Joe Biden: -137, 48.3% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +163, 31.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +400, 16.7% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.8% implied probability
