Tuesday Update
Noon ET: The 2020 Democratic Primary marches on with six states voting in primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.
With 352 delegates up for grabs — or 8.8% of the 3,979 total — Joe Biden will look to extend his lead (664) over Bernie Sanders. The former Vice President also enters the day leading the popular vote.
Biden, who is favored to win the most delegates in all six states on Tuesday, is unsurprisingly the heavy favorite to secure the democratic nomination at -1000 odds. With that in mind, let's take a look at the latest odds for the overall 2020 presidential election via European sportsbook Betfair, complete with the vig-free implied probabilities.
Latest 2020 Presidential Election Betting Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -125 means that you'd have to bet $125 on Donald Trump in order to win $100 if he wins, whereas if you bet $100 on Joe Biden at +125 odds, you’d profit $125 if he wins.
- Donald Trump: -125, 50.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +125, 40.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1400, 6.1% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +6600, 1.4% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability
Wednesday Morning Update
A lot can change in 48 hours, which we just witnessed with the 2020 Presidential Election. Heading into the pivotal Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, Joe Biden had just a 14.2% chance to win the presidency, while Bernie Sanders came in at 19.7%.
After Tuesday, which featured a few important (and unexpected) victories for Biden, those odds have shifted quite dramatically. Biden is now the clear favorite to get the Democratic nomination, which has also influenced his odds to win the presidency.
He now has a 40% chance to win the presidency, compared to just 6.9% for Sanders. Biden's odds not only got a lift from his triumphant Super Tuesday, but also from Michael Bloomberg dropping out of the race on Wednesday morning and immediately endorsing Biden.
Through all of the chaos of the past 48 hours, Donald Trump's chances to get re-elected have remained relatively stagnant. On Monday, he had a 52.6% chance to stay in the Oval Office; now that number sits at 53.9%.
Here are the latest odds via the European book Betfair. Implied probabilities have the juice removed:
Updated 2020 Presidential Election Betting Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -149 means that if you bet $149 and Donald Trump wins, you’d profit $100. And +150 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $150.
- Donald Trump: -149, 53.9% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +150, 40% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1200, 6.9% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +6600, 1.4% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +15000, 0.6% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +20000, 0.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability
Monday Night Update
If you hadn't heard, there's a presidential election this November.
President Donald Trump is essentially a lock to be the Republican nominee for president; former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld and former Illinois rep. Joe Walsh are technically running against him, although they're getting very few votes and aren't even on the ballot in many states.
The race to become the Democratic presidential nominee is much more in the air, although it's possible it will become a distinct two-man race after Joe Biden's commanding victory in South Carolina on Saturday and Bernie Sanders' continued success across the first four states.
Notably, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race after a lackluster finish in South Carolina this weekend, which could consolidate moderate Democratic votes toward Biden, who will hope for a strong showing tomorrow on Super Tuesday to rival Sanders, who still leads in odds to win the nomination.
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As of now, it looks like the race is Trump's to lose: Despite the drama surrounding his presidency, he's still the favorite to win given incumbents rarely lose and the electoral college is in his party's favor. At Betfair, a European book, he's a -162 favorite (bet $162 to win $100) to win the nomination; that gives him an implied probability of 52.6% after removing juice.
Note, however, that he has elevated odds compared to the rest of the candidates given that he's already a near-sure bet to make it out of the Republican primary. In other words, the odds for Sanders, for example, are pricing in both the chances to win the Democratic primary and then the general election in November. His odds will go way up if he's nominated to be the Democrats' presidential nominee.
It is important to note that this market is seemingly quite volatile right now. It may seem like we've been hearing about the Democratic race for months now, but it's still a long ways until November. I don't want to be insensitive and I'm not a doctor, but the coronavirus situation, along with related or unrelated economic impacts, will likely affect these odds in a major way over coming months.
See the full odds (via Betfair) for the 2020 presidential race below. Implied probabilities have the juice removed.
2020 Presidential Election Betting Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -162 means that if you bet $162 and Donald Trump wins, you’d profit $100. And +333 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $333.
- Donald Trump: -162, 52.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +333, 19.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +500, 14.2% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1400, 5.7% implied probability
- Andrew Yang: +2000, 4.1% implied probability
- Hillary Clinton: +6600, 1.3% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
- Michelle Obama: +20000, 0.4% implied probability
- Amy Klobuchar: +20000, 0.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Evan McMullin: +30000, 0.3% implied probability
- Tom Steyer: +50000, 0.2% implied probability
To see a more robust view of the betting market, I compiled the juice-free implied probabilities for the presidential candidates among four books below.
