As of late Saturday night, the Associated Press and other news outlets are projecting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to win the Nevada caucuses. The result wasn't surprising to those following the betting market, which listed him prior to today as a -700 to -800 favorite (implied probability approaching 90%).
With Nevada wrapped up, the Democratic Primary will move to the fourth state on the calendar: South Carolina.
Sanders is the current favorite in the market yet again with -175 odds to win South Carolina, according to European book Betfair — those odds mean you'd have to bet $175 to win $100. After removing juice from the market, that gives him an implied probability of 53.5%.
And it seems like a two-candidate race: Former Vice President Joe Biden is +125, and no other candidate is higher than +2200 (or 22/1).
A month or so ago, Biden would have been a massive favorite to win South Carolina given his historical support from African American voters. But with his slide and Sanders' surge, things have changed quickly. If Biden were to lose South Carolina — a seeming layup not long ago — it might signal the beginning of the end of his campaign for President.
Pete Buttigieg, who had strong showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two states on the Democratic Primary calendar — is all the way down at +3300 (or 33-1) to win in South Carolina. Recent polling has shown that he's really struggled to gain support from African American voters; it's a similar story with Amy Klobuchar.
Notably, former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, who had been making a recent surge prior to this week's debate in Nevada, is not on the South Carolina Democratic Primary ballot.
See the full betting odds (via Betfair) below for Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary (implied probabilities have the juice removed).
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South Carolina Democratic Primary Betting Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -175, 53.5% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +125, 37.4% implied probability
- Tom Steyer: +2200, 3.6% implied probability
- Pete Buttigieg: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.3% implied probability
