Four states have already voted for the 2020 Democratic Primary, and 14 more will join the party on Super Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
It's the biggest voting day on the primary schedule, and 1,357 of the 3,979 total delegates (34.1%) will be awarded. Note that in the Democratic primary, each state has a 15% vote threshold for a candidate to receive delegates. For example, if Joe Biden is the only candidate in Virginia to get 15% or more of the votes, he will get all of the state's delegates. If two candidates both receive above 15%, the delegates are divided according to vote share.
Entering Tuesday, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in delegates after the first four states, and former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote. In third place for both was former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out this weekend after a lackluster finish in South Carolina's primary. Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar also suspended her campaign Monday afternoon.
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Sanders is the favorite at Betfair to win the most delegates tomorrow on Super Tuesday at -400 odds, which has non-juiced implied probability of 66.6%. Joe Biden has the second-highest odds at +250 (27.7%).
Former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg has famously spent millions of dollars in advertising ahead of a Super Tuesday push, but the betting markets are giving him just an implied probability of 3.2% to win the most delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard are both at 1.7% or below.
See the full Super Tuesday odds below (via Betfair and PointsBet). Implied probabilities have the juice removed. See individual state projections below as well.
2020 Super Tuesday Democratic Primary Betting Odds
If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -300 means that if you bet $300 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +200 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $200.
- Bernie Sanders: -400, 66.6% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +250, 27.7% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2500, 3.2% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.8% implied probability
And here are the individual state odds…
2020 Alabama Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -2500, 85.1% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +1400, 5.9% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1400, 5.9% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the Alabama Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Arkansas Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -333, 57.2% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +250, 21.3% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +300, 18.6% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.5% implied probability
For more information on the Arkansas Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 California Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -4000, 86.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1000, 8.1% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.6% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the California Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Colorado Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -2500, 83.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1200, 6.7% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +1400, 5.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2500, 3.3% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +20000, 0.4% implied probability
For more information on the Colorado Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Maine Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -800, 73.6% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +600, 11.8% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +1100, 6.9% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1100, 6.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.8% implied probability
For more information on the Maine Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -300, 63.0% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +200, 28.0% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1600, 5.0% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
For more information on the Massachusetts Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Minnesota Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -1000, 79.0% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +500, 14.5% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +2500, 3.3% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +15000, 0.6% implied probability
For more information on the Minnesota Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 North Carolina Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -500, 73.0% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +400, 17.5% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1600, 5.2% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +5000, 1.8% implied probability
For more information on the North Carolina Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Oklahoma Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -137, 48.3% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +163, 31.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +400, 16.7% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.8% implied probability
For more information on the Oklahoma Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Tennessee Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -900, 76.9% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +450, 15.5% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +1600, 5.0% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the Tennessee Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Texas Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -188, 56.9% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +130, 38.0% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +3300, 2.5% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +4500, 1.9% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +15000, 0.6% implied probability
For more information on the Texas Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Utah Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -5000, 85.0% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +1400, 5.8% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +2000, 4.2% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the Utah Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Vermont Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Bernie Sanders: -10000, 93.0% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +3300, 2.7% implied probability
- Joe Biden: +5000, 1.9% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +6600, 1.4% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the Vermont Super Tuesday race, click here.
2020 Virginia Democratic Primary Super Tuesday Odds
- Joe Biden: -300, 64.6% implied probability
- Bernie Sanders: +200, 28.7% implied probability
- Michael Bloomberg: +2000, 4.1% implied probability
- Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
- Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability
For more information on the Virginia Super Tuesday race, click here.
