Swing State Election Odds
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
It's over. Joe Biden is the President-Elect of the United States.
Most media outlets called Pennsylvania for Biden on Saturday morning, giving him 273 electoral votes, enough to clinch the presidency.
This tracker will be retired for now.
Friday, 9 a.m. ET
Early Friday morning, Joe Biden took the lead in actual votes in Pennsylvania and Georgia. He's been favored to win those states at Betfair for nearly 24 hours, so it doesn't come as a huge surprise considering the remaining ballots are coming from heavily-Democratic areas.
Betfair gives Biden the following chance in the three states it still has posted:
Pennsylvania odds
- Joe Biden -5000 (92.1% chance)
- Donald Trump +1100 (7.9% chance)
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -1666 (87.6% chance)
- Donald Trump +650 (12.4% chance)
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -500 (76.9% chance)
- Donald Trump +300 (23.1% chance)
11:25 p.m. ET
We've seen no significant movement in the betting odds of key swing states for the Presidential Election in the past hour. Joe Biden is still favored to win the three most important states left on the board:
Pennsylvania odds:
- Joe Biden -2500 (90.1% chance)
- Donald Trump +850 (9.9% chance)
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -1667 (87.6% chance)
- Donald Trump +650 (12.4% chance)
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -333 (71.1% chance)
- Donald Trump +220 (28.9% chance)
The only change in the past hour: Biden's chances to win Arizona increased by nearly 5 points.
10:25 p.m. ET
Donald Trump's lead in Georgia is down to 1,797 votes, and it appears it's only a matter of time before Joe Biden will take the lead in the Peach State. The latest betting odds at Betfair reflect this:
- Joe Biden -1667 (87.6% chance)
- Donald Trump +650 (12.4% chance)
This is a 3-point bump for Biden.
10:10 p.m. ET
Your latest round-up of Donald Trump and Joe Biden's odds to win the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona are not a pretty picture for the President.
Pennsylvania odds:
- Joe Biden -2500 (90.1% chance)
- Donald Trump +850 (9.9% chance)
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -1000 (84.5% chance)
- Donald Trump +500 (15.5% chance)
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -250 (66.3% chance)
- Donald Trump +175 (33.7% chance)
Biden still trails by 42,000 votes in Pennsylvania, but there are plenty of votes still to be counted and the mail-in votes have heavily tilted in his favor.
Reminder: If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he wins the Presidency. If he wins Georgia, he still needs to win one of the three other states that would be left on the board.
9:10 p.m. ET
Less than an hour ago, Donald Trump's chances to win Arizona stood at 28.6%, according to the odds at Betfair. At 9 p.m. ET, more votes came in from Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, and those votes tightened Joe Biden's lead.
A tightening of the betting odds followed:
- Joe Biden -250 (66.3% chance)
- Donald Trump +175 (33.7% chance)
That's more than a five point jump for the President since our last update, but it might be all for naught if Biden completes his comeback in Pennsylvania, which would give Biden the Electoral College.
Here's how each state stands now:
8:30 p.m. ET
An updated look at the latest odds for three of the key swings states that will help decide the 2020 Presidential Election:
Pennsylvania odds:
- Joe Biden -1667 (88.3% chance)
- Donald Trump +700 (11.7% chance)
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -769 (87.6% chance)
- Donald Trump +450 (12.8% chance)
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -333 (71.4% chance)
- Donald Trump +225 (28.6% chance)
7:30 p.m. ET
We've seen yet another big swing in Joe Biden's favor in Georgia as votes continue to be counted. The latest vote count from the state have the former VP railing by fewer than 4,000 votes, and the odds from Betfair reflect Biden has a good chance of pulling out a victory in the state:
- Joe Biden: -714 (81.4% chance)
- Donald Trump: +400 (18.6% chance)
Biden's odds to win Georgia were 73% just 45 minutes ago, but another tranche of come in, shrinking the vote margin even more, with still more votes left to be counted
6:45 p.m. ET
There are three states still listed at European sportsbook Betfair, and Joe Biden is a big favorite to win all of them.
- Arizona: -588 (79.3%)
- Georgia: -344 (73%)
- Pennsylvania: -1428 (87.5%)
Biden still trails in actual tallied votes in Georgia and Pennsylvania, but has significantly narrowed the gap in Georgia to fewer than 4,000 votes with many Democratic counties still left to report.
It's a similar story in Pennsylvania, where Philadelphia and Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh) still need to report large numbers of ballots.
Biden holds a narrow lead in Arizona, though Donald Trump has closed some ground in the last day.
Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET
Joe Biden maintains his strong leads in the betting market in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and just added to another as the final tallies come in.
Biden is up to -333 in Georgia at Betfair, giving him a 71% chance.
Thursday, 10:30 a.m. ET
We're still tracking three key swing state on Thursday morning: Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. Joe Biden is favored to win all three to varying degrees based on the current odds from Betfair:
Pennsylvania odds:
- Joe Biden -1000 (81.4% chance)
- Donald Trump +400 (18.6% chance)
Biden still trails Trump by more than 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania, but there's still more than 600,000 mail-in votes still left to be counted. So far in PA — and in other states such as Wisconsin and Michigan –mail-in ballots have heavily skewed toward the former Vice President. That helps explain why the betting markets think Biden has an 81.4% chance to ultimately win Pennsylvania.
If Biden does emerge victorious in the state, he'd win the election.
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -227 (64.6% chance)
- Donald Trump +163 (35.4% chance)
This race continues to tilt in Biden's favor in Georgia, but it will be close. Trump is leading by just 18,000 votes with around 61,000 left to be counted. A lot of those ballots are from the largest counties in the state, where Biden is running up a large margin. Biden's odds to win Georgia are up 5 points since last night.
A win in Georgia would leave Biden one Electoral College vote shy of 270, so he'd need to pick up Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada or North Carolina.
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -345 (78.7% chance)
- Donald Trump +250 (21.3% chance)
Biden's lead on paper is shrinking in Arizona, but his odds to win are actually on the rise. His chances are up 7.7 points from nine hours ago.
Much like with Georgia, Biden would need to win one other state to clinch the Presidency if he wins Arizona.
Thursday, 1:30 a.m. ET
As votes continue to be counted in the key swings states of Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, let's check in on the latest odds:
Pennsylvania odds
- Joe Biden -1000 (84.5% chance)
- Donald Trump +500 (15.5% chance)
Biden's has gotten a 3.1-point boost since 11 p.m. ET.
Georgia odds
- Joe Biden -189 (59.5% chance)
- Donald Trump +125Â (40.5% chance)
This has tightened a bit from 11 p.m. ET, when Biden had a 66.3% chance to win.
Arizona odds
- Joe Biden -333 (71.1% chance)
- Donald Trump +220 (38.9% chance)
Not a huge change here from early in the night. Biden had a 74.5% chance a 11 p.m. ET. More votes should be reported from Arizona shortly.
Thursday, 12 a.m. ET
The latest numbers out of Pennsylvania appear to be very favorable for Joe Biden, if the latest odds from Betfair are to be believed:
- Joe Biden's odds in Pennsylvania: -1000 (84.5% chance)
- Donald Trump's odds in Pennsylvania: +500 (15.5% chance)
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he'll become the 46th President of the United States.
Wednesday, 11 p.m. ET
The huge shift toward Joe Biden continues in Georgia. Here are the latest odds in this pivotal swings state:
- Joe Biden's odds in Georgia:Â -250 (66.3% chance)
- Donald Trump's odds in Georgia:Â +175 (33.7% chance)
These are by far Biden's best odds to win Georgia. He was -150 (55.7%) just 90 minutes ago and he had less than a 25% chance to win the state at this time yesterday.
At the moment, Trump has a little more than a 30,000-vote lead, but it's been shrinking all day and some Democratic strongholds still have outstanding votes.
If Biden takes Georgia, he still needs to win one other state to win the Presidency. He's also a big favorite to win both Pennsylvania (-714 odds, 81.4%) and Arizona (-588 odds, 74.5%).
Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. ET
The state of Georgia has been hanging in the balance since last night, as Donald Trump has continued to hold a shrinking lead. And for the first time, Joe Biden is favored to win the Peach State, according to the latest betting odds from Betfair in Europe:
- Joe Biden's odds in Georgia:Â -150 (55.7% chance)
- Donald Trump's odds in Georgia:Â +110 (44.3% chance)
Biden is still behind by 39,000 votes with 95% of the votes reported, but the race has tightened dramatically this evening as more mail-in votes roll in from the bigger counties in the state.
For some context, Trump had a 75.5% chance to win Georgia less than 24 hours ago.
Also notable for Biden are his odds in the state of Pennsylvania, which continue to rise. The former VP is up to -714 odds (81.4% chance). We'll keep a close eye on these odds, as a Biden victory would secure the Presidency.
Wednesday, 5:55 p.m. ET
There are three races still listed at Betfair, and Joe Biden is favored or a pick'em in each:
If he wins Arizona, he'll win the election, assuming Nevada holds, as expected.
- Georgia: -120 (50%)
- Pennsylvania:Â -333 (72.9%)
- Arizona: -588 (79.3%)
Wednesday, 4:40 p.m. ET
The number of states left for Donald Trump to regain ground is dwindling.
Many major media outlets have called Michigan for Joe Biden, meaning he likely just needs to win at least two of Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania to take the election. Per the betting markets, he leads in all three.
In Pennsylvania, Biden is a -500 favorite, giving him a 79.9% chance with the juice removed.
In the general election at Betfair, Biden has a nearly 90% chance of winning and is listed at -909.
Wednesday, 3:20 p.m. ET
There are an estimated 600,000 votes left to be counted in Arizona, one of a few states that could swing the election results. Those 600,000 represent roughly the final 13% of votes in Arizona, where Joe Biden currently holds a narrow lead.
Biden is now a -500 favorite in the state at Betfair. Here are his and Donald Trump's implied probabilities to win Arizona:
- Biden: 76.9%
- Trump: 23.1%
With seven states still yet to be called, here's the implied probabilities of both candidates winning three other key states with odds still on the board:
- Georgia: Trump leads 66.9% vs. Biden 33.1%
- Michigan: Biden leads 88.9% vs. Trump 11.1%
- Pennsylvania: Biden leads 58.9% vs. Trump 41.1%
Wednesday, 11:50 a.m. ET
Wisconsin has gone final. A Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator said Wednesday around noon that all the votes have been counted, and Joe Biden won by just north of 20,000.
That leaves three (or maybe four/five) key states still in play:
- Michigan: Biden leads big (85%)
- Pennsylvania: Biden leads (58.7%)
- Georgia: Trump leads (58.7%)
The wild cards are Arizona and Nevada. Arizona looked like it would go to Biden as of late last night and this morning. But less than 90% of ballots have been counted, when it was previously reported that 98% were in.
Nevada is still counting and might be for the next several days, but it looks like it will go to Biden.
Betfair doesn't have Nevada on the board right now. Biden is -400 in Arizona at Betfair, giving him about at 74% chance.
If Trump wins Arizona and Pennsylvania, he'll win the election, even without Michigan or Wisconsin. If Biden can hang on in Arizona, he'll just need to win Michigan and doesn't need Pennsylvania.
Wednesday, 11 a.m. ET
Assuming Nevada and Arizona hold, Joe Biden needs to win Michigan and Wisconsin, where he's a big favorite, to win the election. Pennsylvania or Georgia would just about seal it.
Pennsylvania odds: Biden is -175 in PA, a lead that's grown by about 1.3% percentage points this morning, while Trump is +125. That makes Biden's probability there 58.7%.
Georgia odds: As ballots continue to roll in throughout the heavily-blue Metro Atlanta area, Trump is -149 to win the state, about a 55% chance.
Trump's odds have improved in Georgia over the last few hours.
Michigan odds: Biden is a -1000 favorite, giving him about an 85% chance there with the juice removed.
Wisconsin odds: Biden is a -1667 favorite at Betfair, giving him a nearly 90% chance to take the state.
Wednesday, 9:45 a.m. ET
Joe Biden took the lead in Michigan (in actual voting) a few minutes ago, making him an even bigger favorite there. He maintains big leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a smaller lead in Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump still leads in Georgia, but Biden doesn't need the Peach State to win.
Wednesday, 8 a.m. ET
Joe Biden has taken commanding leads in Wisconsin and Michigan overnight, a smaller lead in Pennsylvania, and has closed the gap in Georgia.
If Biden holds Nevada and Arizona, he just needs to win Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election — he won't even need Pennsylvania in that case.
Michigan odds: Biden is a -714 favorite, giving him about an 81% chance there.
Wisconsin odds: Biden is a -1667 favorite at Betfair, giving him a nearly 90% chance to take the state.
Pennsylvania odds: Biden is -161 in PA, while Trump is +120. That makes Biden's probability there 57.5%.
Georgia odds: As ballots continue to roll in throughout the heavily-blue Metro Atlanta area, Trump's lead has shrunk in Georgia. Trump is -136, a 53.6% implied probability.
Wednesday, 1:30 a.m. ET
The biggest swing state odds shift in the past half-hour? Georgia.
While some predictive models have this as essentially a 50-50 toss-up at this point in the race, Betfair heavily favors Trump:
- Trump's odds to win Georgia:Â -455 (75.5%)
- Biden's odds to win Georgia: +275 (24.5%)
Wednesday, 1 a.m. ET
A quick rundown of the latest odds in five key swing state races, with some momentum appearing to move in Joe Biden's favor:
Pennsylvania odds: The most likely tipping point state is looking good for Trump … so far. Current odds: Trump -250 (71.4% chance), compared to Biden +175. It's important to note that Pennsylvania counts their mail-in votes last and there's a ton of outstanding votes in big metro areas, which are expected to favor Biden.
Georgia odds: Trump is favored to win at -200 odds (66.7% chance). Biden is at +150. While Biden is an underdog, it's a victory for the former VP that these odds are even up. The race was thought to be so far out of reach that Betfair took the odds down for a bit.
Michigan odds: Biden is a -150 favorite (60% chance), compared to +110 for Trump.
Nevada odds: This wasn't expected to be too big of a challenge for Biden and he remains a favorite. Current odds: Biden -278 (73.5%) and Trump +175
Wisconsin odds: Biden is currently a -150 favorite (60% chance) to win Wisconsin. Trump is +110.
Wednesday, 12 a.m. ET
There's been major movement in both the general election odds and in specific states over the last 30 minutes. Joe Biden is favored in Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan; he's a small underdog in Pennsylvania, with that line moving rapidly.
Assuming he holds Nevada, where he's a big favorite, Biden will need two of the other three to win the election.
11:30 p.m. ET
Fox News has called Arizona for Joe Biden, giving him a few paths to victory if that race really is over.
- AZ + WI + MI + NE2 (loses PA)
- AZ + PA + MI (without WI)
- AZ + PA + WI (without MI)
- AZ + PA + WI + MI
As of 11:30 p.m. ET, Biden is favored in Wisconsin and Michigan, and an underdog in Pennsylvania.
Trump is now a -150 favorite in the general election, about a 58% favorite in implied probability.
11:20 p.m. ET
The betting market has tightened in Pennsylvania in the last 20 minutes, dropping from -227 to -200.
There is still so much undecided in the state with millions of early ballots still not counted, and we may not get answers for a few days.
- Trump's odds to win Pennsylvania: -200 (62.5% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Pennsylvania: +150 (37.5% chance)
11 p.m. ET
Though there's still so much to be decided in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump holds a hefty lead at Betfair. Joe Biden entered the night as a favorite about the same size as Trump is now.
- Trump's odds to win Pennsylvania: -227 (64.6% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Pennsylvania: +163 (35.4% chance)
10:45 p.m. ET
Michigan has ping-ponged back and forth in the last hour, going to a pick'em before Biden took a lead just before 11 p.m. ET.
- Trump's odds to win Michigan: +110 (44.3% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Michigan: -149 (55.7% chance)
10:30 p.m. ET
Arizona has swung in favor of Joe Biden; he holds a semi-significant edge. A key Democratic seat went blue in Arizona just a few minutes ago, as well.
- Trump's odds to win Arizona: +163 (35.5% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Arizona: -227 (64.5% chance)
Michigan is a toss-up just 90 minutes before midnight on the East Coast, with Betfair listing both at -120.
With the juice removed, that makes the race a dead heat. Biden needs Michigan to keep this race alive.
- Trump's odds to win Michigan: -120 (50% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Michigan: -120 (50% chance)
9:45 p.m. ET
Pennsylvania has always been the most likely tipping point state in this election, and Biden held a pretty sizable lead in the betting odds entering the day (-227), with Donald Trump at +175.
Now? Those odds have effectively flipped:
- Trump's odds to win Pennsylvania:Â -200 (62.5% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Pennsylvania: +150 (37.5% chance)
9:30 p.m. ET
Not too long ago, the race in North Carolina was very tight, according to the betting odds at Betfair, with Trump's odds at -149 and Biden's at +110. That's not longer the case:
- Trump's odds to win North Carolina: -1667 (84.7% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Ohio:Â +500 (15.3% chance)
9:20 p.m. ET
Now that Florida appears to be going to President Donald Trump, the focus has shifted to Ohio.
Trump peaked today as a -300 favorite to win the state, which is equivalent to a 75% chance. At around 9 p.m. ET, Trump's chances had dipped to 61.7% chance as early results favorited Joe Biden, who was +120.
But Betfair odds shifted in a big way again shortly thereafter — this time in favor of the President:
- Trump's odds to win Ohio:Â -333 (71.4% chance)
- Biden's odds to win Ohio:Â +225 (28.6% chance)
Swing State Election Odds & Predictions
8:30 p.m. ET
The shift toward the president in Georgia continues. Trump opened the day as a -150 favorite to carry the state, which typically goes red in Presidential Elections but appeared to be more in play for Democrats this time around.
Trump's odds now? A staggering -714, which implies an 87.7% chance.
Biden, meanwhile, has odds of +350 to win Georgia, which implies a 22.2% chance.
8:10 p.m. ET
Arizona, another key swing state on Election Night, is starting to shift in Donald Trump's favor. The President opened as a +125 underdog, but the race is now Trump -149 and Biden +100, implying Trump is now the favorite to win.
8 p.m. ET
Georgia started the day as a swing state, but as early results have started to roll in, Donald Trump has gained a significant advantage. The current odds:
- Donald Trump -345 (77.5% chance)
- Joe Biden +220 (31.3% chance)
Trump opened the day at -150 odds (60% chance).
7:30 p.m. ET
Let's the Florida roller coaster commence…
Donald Trump had been seeing heavy action to win the state of Florida, pushing his odds to -187 after opening the day at -137.
But then some results started rolling in that favored Biden, and the odds completely flipped to -137 for Biden and +100 for Trump.
It didn't take long for the odds to flip back, though — and in a HUGE way for the President. As early results from Miami-Dade County showed very promising results for Trump, Betfair shifted to the following odds:
- Donald Trump: -770 (80% chance)
- Joe Biden:Â +350 (20% chance)
6:15Â p.m. ET
With the first polls closing at 6 p.m. ET, the sportsbook we've been tracking presidential election odds at (Betfair) has taken all but 10 states off the board — some of which differ from the swing states we were previously following closely.
Since our last update at 4:30 p.m. ET, Donald Trump's odds to win Florida have improved from -150 to -187 while Joe Biden's odds in the state have fallen from +110 to +138.
For some context, Trump opened the day with -137 odds to win the state.
Betfair tells The Action Network's Darren Rovell that $3 million has been wagered on its market on the popular vote in Florida. "Big action" on Trump is what has moved the odds toward the President.
With that said, of the 10 states with odds still listed, these are the ones in which each candidate is favored to win (along with the number of electoral votes available):
- Biden: Arizona (11), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
- Trump:Â Florida (29), Georgia (16), Ohio (18), Texas (38)
4:30 p.m. ET
With an hour and a half until the first polls close at 6 p.m. ET, here are the key swing states (of the eight we're tracking) that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are favored to win according to the betting market — complete with the electoral votes up for grabs in each:
- Biden: Arizona (11), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20)
- Trump:Â Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Texas (38)
2:30 p.m. ET
Not too many notable odds shifts to report in the swing states. The odds to win Ohio movedslightly toward President Donald Trump, but when we say slightly, we mean it…
Trump is now a -278 favorite to win the Buckeye State, up from -275 at noon ET. Perhaps most notably, it's a continued rise from this morning, when Trump was -250 to carry the state.
Trump's current odds to win Ohio are equivalent to nearly a 75% chance.
Noon ET
The odds in key swing states continue to shift toward Trump. After Trump's odds in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas increased this morning, the momentum continued in the following states, according to the latest odds from Betfair:
- Arizona election odds:Â While Joe Biden remains a favorite to win Arizona (-135, equivalent to a 57.8% chance), Trump continues to make gains in the state, moving from +125 this morning (44.4%) to +100 (50%) as of noon.
- Pennsylvania election odds: Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state, according to most statistical models. Biden is still favorited to win the state (-200 odds, 66.7% chance), but the odds are shifting toward Trump. He was +175 (36.4%) this morning and is now +150 (40%).
9:15 a.m. ET
Donald Trump has seen some good odds movement in a few key states:
- Florida election odds: Trump now has odds of -150 to win the always pivotal swing state, according to the latest figures at Betfair. That's equivalent to a 60% chance and up from -137 (57.8%) early this morning.
- Iowa election odds: Trump carried Iowa pretty handily in 2016. It's been a little more in play for Democrats this time around, but the President has gotten a healthy bump this morning in Hawkeye State, as his odds have increased from -250 (or a 71.4% chance) to -333 (76.9%).
- Ohio election odds: If Trump wants to have any chance to win a second term, he needs to win Ohio. The latest odds suggest he has a pretty good chance of doing so: -275 (73.3% chance). That's up from a 71.4% chance (-250 odds).
- Texas election odds: An absolute must-win for the Trump campaign, Texas should go red again in 2020, according to Betfair's odds. Trump is currently -350 to carry the state (77.8% chance), a slight improvement from earlier (-325, 76.5%).
Biden's odds, meanwhile, increased in one battleground state: North Carolina. The former Vice President entered the day with odds of -137 (57.8% chance), and he now sits at -150 (60%).
1 a.m. ET
Election Day is officially here.
The betting market has all but solidified over the past week according to the odds at Betfair, which lists former Vice President Joe Biden with odds that give him a two-thirds implied probability of beating President Donald Trump as of midnight ET on Tuesday.
We'll be tracking how the betting odds shift as news breaks and polls close in all 50 states (below), paying special attention to key swing states where the betting market predicts close races.
Heading into the day, there are eight states in which one of the two candidates is favored by only -333 (76.9% implied probability) or less: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In other words, those are the eight closest state races according to the betting market.
For some additional context, FiveThirtyEight's election forecast projects all eight of those state races as having one candidate "slightly favored" or worse to win, with Pennsylvania standing out as the "most likely tipping-point state."
With 20 of the 538 total electoral votes, Pennsylvania is tied with Illinois for the fourth-most electoral votes in the country, making it historically among the most important battleground states in presidential elections. It's worth noting that Pennsylvania delivered Trump his narrowest victory in 2016, edging out then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by only 0.72%.
Check back throughout the day on Tuesday — and until the results are final — as we monitor the betting markets in real-time.
